Past expectations of a wave of homes to hit the market once senior citizens move out are fading, with a majority of baby boomers saying they won’t sell for at least another decade — if ever.
Just over one-third, or 33.5%, of baby boomers have no plans to sell their current homes in their lifetimes, according to new research from Redfin. Similarly, another 30% thought they would wait at least another decade before listing their properties.
Redfin’s report throws cold water in the near term on previous predictions of a “silver tsunami” of inventory to arrive and potentially lead to oversupply. Over the past decade, several housing research groups forecasted a quarter of currently occupied properties to become available in the next 12-to 15 years as baby boomers aged out of their properties.
Instead, the findings will exacerbate ongoing challenges for younger generations aspiring to achieve homeownership, Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather said.
“With baby boomers opting to age in place rather than sell, it’s challenging for younger buyers to find affordable options that fit their lifestyle,” Fairweather noted in a press release.
“While inventory is improving, supply is tight for young house hunters looking for family homes, especially in suburban areas where homes priced like starter homes — yet large enough for families — are scarce,” she added.
Even less likely to sell were members of the silent generation born before 1946 still in their homes, with 44.6% hoping to never move, Redfin’s report said.
In contrast to their older cohorts, only about 25% of Generation X said they had no plans to sell. Meanwhile, just 21% of millennials and members of Generation Z who have purchased property called their current residence their forever home.
Among younger homeowners expecting to relocate, approximately 55% of Gen X said their move wouldn’t occur for at least five years. For millennials and Gen Z, the share was 47%.
Why baby boomers are opting to age in place
The current financial benefits to homeownership, as well as overall satisfaction about their living situation, make staying put desirable for many seniors.
The most common reason cited by the majority of baby boomers for choosing not to move was how much they liked their home. Over two-thirds said they had lived in their current residence for at least 16 years. At the same time, 30% also chose to stay because they had already paid off their mortgage.
For some, the incentive to age in place boiled down to the same factors influencing overall consumer housing market sentiment — namely, the impact of the lock-in effect.
Nearly 16% said current housing costs were too high for them to consider a move, while 8% didn’t want to give up the mortgage rate they currently held.
Redfin’s data aligns with similar research published by Freddie Mac in 2024 that found over two-thirds of homeowners over the age of 60 with a preference to keep their properties. In Freddie Mac’s report, a clear majority wanted to bequeath their homes to their children.
How does this affect the mortgage market?
The inclination for baby boomers to remain where they are compounds the effects of already scarce inventory and the resulting spike in home values that have plagued the mortgage industry now for years, Redfin said.
With housing prices surging close to 40% from pre-pandemic levels, one-quarter of current millennial and Gen Z renters are not in the market to purchase because they can’t afford where they’d like to live, according to the real estate firm’s survey.
Similarly, 31% of baby boomer households said they wouldn’t be able to afford to buy their homes today. Nearly 90% of units owned by the boomer generation consist of single-family homes, applying continued downward pressure to inventory suitable for young families.
The high levels of accrued equity among older homeowners, though, are leading to a noticeable upturn in consumer interest for the type of loan products that allow them to tap into their wealth. The most recent estimates of tappable home equity available to consumers over age 62 approached $14 trillion, according to the National Reverse Mortgage Lenders Association.
Still, signs that opportunities are opening up for aspiring buyers are emerging and should come from various sources in the future, Redfin said.
“It’s worth noting that even though many older Americans say they’re not planning to sell their homes, many are likely to eventually part ways as it becomes harder to live independently and/or keep up with home maintenance,” Fairweather said.
