Mortgage rates fell by a whopping 15 basis points this week, to their lowest point in almost a year, as Fed watchers are now certain a short-term rate cut is in the offing, Freddie Mac reported.
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage was at 6.35% on Sept. 11, down from 6.5% one week ago, the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey found. A year earlier, when the rate stood at 6.2%, markets were also anticipating a cut.
The last time rates were lower than they are today was the week of Oct. 17, 2024, when they were in the middle of a rapid climb of 71 basis points which ended the first week of November.
This week’s drop is the largest week-to-week decline in the past year, said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac chief economist.
“Mortgage rates are headed in the right direction and homebuyers have noticed, as purchase applications reached the highest year-over-year growth rate in more than four years,” Khater said in a press release.
The 10-year Treasury on Thursday morning by a very scant amount broke through the 4% floor, the first time since April 7 it was below that level. By 11 a.m., it was back at 4% and one hour later at 4.02%. For Sept. 3, the 10-year closed at 4.21%.
On a sustained basis, the last time the 10-year was under 4% was at the beginning of October 2024.
According to Zillow’s rate tracker, at 6.5% as of 11 a.m. Thursday morning, the 30-year FRM was up 3 basis points from Wednesday and flat with the previous week’s average.
In the immediate aftermath of last week’s Bureau of Labor Statistics report, mortgage rates dropped sharply, noted Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow Home Loans, in a Wednesday evening commentary, when Zillow’s tracker was at 6.47%.
“In anticipation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates aggressively in the coming months to support the economy, investors have driven mortgage rates lower,” Ng said.
Lender Price data on the National Mortgage News website had the 30-year FRM at 6.41%, 4 basis points lower than seven days prior.
In the September Blue Chip Economic Indicator survey from Wolters Kluwer, nearly all the economists now expect a Federal Open Market Committee rate cut at its meeting this month (except one, who is holding out for an October reduction).
Even with the jobs and Producer Price Index news giving rise to speculation of a 50 basis point cut, the near unanimity extends to a 25 basis point reduction at the next meeting.
“The debate is no longer about whether the central bank cuts rates, but about the size of that first cut,” said Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group before the markets opened on Wednesday. “Futures markets are fully pricing in a 25-basis-point reduction, with growing speculation around a larger 50-point move.”
But the BCEI panel views regarding the total Fed Funds Rate reduction this year rose to an average of 60 basis points from last month’s 51 basis points.
Could the Consumer Price Index data released Thursday morning put a damper? Not according to one observer.
