Total mortgage origination volume is projected to surpass $2 trillion by the end of the year for the first time since 2022, according to a recent forecast.
The milestone is driven by a 48% jump in refinance dollars and 12% spike in purchase dollars, an overall 20% increase from last year, according to iEmergent’s 2025–2027 U.S. Mortgage Origination Forecast.
“Crossing back above $2 trillion in 2025 signals renewed strength in the mortgage market,” iEmergent Chief of Forecasting Mark Watson said in a press release Wednesday. “By 2026, lower rates and moderating home prices should support activity, though affordability challenges will persist – especially for first-time buyers.”
The forecast also estimated total origination volume to reach $2.27 trillion next year, a 13% climb from 2025. The company expects refinance units to rise 24% as lower rates boost activity and purchase units to grow 2.3% to push total loan count up nearly 10% year over year.
The 2026 outlook reflects the changing economic landscape, Watson said. As tariff impacts deepen, consumer confidence falls off and the labor market slows, iEmergent anticipates GDP growth to cool and interest rates to lower.
Long-term interest rates are expected to rise slightly by the end of the year but fall again in 2026 as growth weakens, the forecast said. That drop should bring more activity to the market.
Origination volume is forecasted to marginally increase to $2.32 trillion in 2027, backed by a 3.6% increase in purchase units, while refinance units are expected to dip a bit.
“These national trends tell an important story, but they don’t tell the whole story,” said Laird Nossuli, CEO of iEmergent. “Every market will experience the next wave of recovery differently.”
Fannie Mae’s most recent origination forecast in late September pegged total volume below iEmergent’s at $1.85 trillion, while its 2026 projection came in slightly higher at $2.32 trillion.
