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Plaid/Experian Lenders are broadening their target audiences, often considering borrowers that don't have a long track record with credit bureaus. Experian is trying to address this challenge by considering alternative data to provide a more holistic picture of a consumer's financial health. The credit reporting bureau is partnering with data aggregator Plaid to combine cash-flow data and credit analytics for lenders.Experian already uses cash-flow data shared by consumers for its Experian Boost service, but the partnership will build separate "cash-flow credit scores" for lenders upon request.One use case for cash-flow underwriting is helping individuals like recent college graduates or immigrants with a "thin credit file" get approved for better loans."Banks are asking for this data because there is such a significant impact to financial inclusion," Ashley Knight, senior vice president of product management at Experian, told American Banker, referencing research from Oliver Wyman that reports 19% of consumers do not have a credit score. "This helps to offset that."While Experian Boost is designed to help consumers increase their credit profile, the Plaid partnership is designed for lenders, Knight said. Experian and Plaid will allow the consumer to grant access so lenders can have their bank data assessed for underwriting."The lender can take the credit data that they have already pulled from Experian, plus this cash-flow data, and use them both to make the decision to approve or deny a loan," Plaid Credit Product Lead Michelle Young told American Banker.Cash-flow based underwriting is an older method of loan underwriting that is gaining ground again, especially as digital lending brings more borrowers into the market with less of a credit background than is typically used for vetting."The availability of real-time cash-flow data addresses two critical industry challenges," said Stewart Watterson, strategic advisor at Datos Insights. "It creates pathways to credit for underserved consumers that didn't exist under legacy scoring models, and for financial institutions it expands the consumer lending addressable market while improving the ability to manage credit risk."Other companies are also harnessing cash-flow data. VantageScore launched a credit scoring model in May 2024 that combines traditional credit data with bank account information to help thin-file consumers gain access to financial products and services. Previously, the fintech Finicity (since acquired by MasterCard) partnered with FICO to launch the cash-flow data-powered UltraFICO score back in 2018.Other companies that analyze bank account or cash-flow data alongside other forms of credit data include Nova Credit, TomoCredit and Bloom Credit. Bloom Credit focuses more on the consumer side of credit building, and recently partnered with Navy Federal Credit Union to help its members build their TransUnion credit scores through regular bill payments.In a Datos Insights research report prepared for Plaid, 88% of consumer lenders surveyed were more confident using alternative credit data compared to the previous year. The survey also reported that of the 434 consumer lending institutions surveyed, 60% reported being less confident in making lending decisions based solely on traditional credit files and scores compared to 2023."Traditional credit evaluation methods, while historically reliable, struggle to capture the complete financial picture of modern consumers, particularly given the rise of nontraditional income sources and alternative credit products," said Watterson, who wrote the Datos report. With lenders looking for new ways to evaluate a potential borrower's risk and financial institutions preparing their data for open banking, experts see a chance for cash-flow underwriting to become a viable alternative to traditional credit analysis."There's a lot of opportunity in the cash-flow underwriting universe," Kate Drew, director of research for CCG Catalyst, told American Banker. "With this partnership you have Plaid providing secure data access and Experian providing the analytics. You need those two things in order to do cash-flow underwriting well."For lenders to access cash-flow data from Experian, the consumer needs to grant the credit bureau permission to access their bank accounts through Plaid. Drew told American Banker that the process of consenting to data sharing needs to be as friction-free as possible for consumers to start the process in the first place."It's ultimately the consumer that is going to have to opt in to sharing this data," she said. "Building a flow that doesn't create a lot of friction helps them understand why they're doing it and doesn't result in drop-off is going to be really important to realizing the benefits."Although industry leaders are becoming increasingly attuned to the potential of cash-flow underwriting as an option for credit, the average consumer is often unaware of credit analysis options beyond the traditional FICO score."We are at the beginning of the beginning," Drew said. "We've been using credit scores for a very long time as the standard for how we extend access to credit. This is going to take years to reach the mainstream in any meaningful way, especially with the entire element around consumer education. There's a mind shift that needs to happen in the mind of the American consumer in order for this to really take off."

The big Fed decision yesterday was keeping rates unchanged. Everyone knew that was going to be the case and didn’t bat an eye.However, things are always a bit more interesting because we get to hear from the Fed Chair after they release their FOMC statement.Chair Powell actually touched on the housing market directly, despite the Fed not being explicitly concerned with housing. Or with mortgage rates for that matter either.But the takeaway seemed to be that the Fed continues to be in no rush to get too accommodative, despite pleas from the President and FHFA Director.And that any changes, i.e. cuts, need to foster a sustainable housing market with better equilibrium between buyers and sellers.Restoring Price Stability in a Sustainable WayFirst some quick background. The Fed raised rates (their own fed funds rate) back in 2022 as inflation began to spiral out of control.The housing market was also extremely overheated, in Powell’s own words, after a couple pandemic years pushed prices up another 50% (from already high levels) in many cities nationwide.While the Fed couldn’t go out and build more houses to alleviate the supply shortage, and thus stabilize prices, they could do their best to cool demand.The best way to cool demand would be by raising rates. The Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates, but their monetary policy can indirectly affect the price of bonds, like the 10-year Treasury.This can cause bond yields to rise or fall, and 30-year fixed mortgage rates tend to correlate really well with the 10-year bond yield.When the 10-year bond yield goes up, as it did in 2022, mortgage rates did too. And by a lot.The 10-year bond went from around 1.75% to 4.25% from January to October of 2022, while the 30-year fixed climbed from 3.50% to 7.25%.At the same time, mortgage rate spreads blew out due to the volatility and uncertainty, and the lack of the Fed being a buyer of mortgage-backed securities (MBS).But home prices continued to go up (and still are to this day), though the rate of appreciation has slowed tremendously.And in some areas, prices are actually falling. At the same time, inventory is finally rising and nearing pre-pandemic levels.Finally Seeing a Shift to a Buyer’s Market, But It Took YearsSo things didn’t happen overnight, but we are finally seeing a return of the buyer’s market after perhaps a decade or longer.Still, affordability remains poor and high home prices coupled with elevated mortgage rates don’t quite pencil for many prospective buyers.While President Trump and FHFA Director Pulte are explicitly calling for rate cuts, Powell is signaling a slow and steady approach, as always.And today he touched on the housing market directly, saying the following:Powell: “We have a longer run shortage of housing and we also have high rates right now. I think the best thing we can do for the housing market is to restore price stability in a sustainable way and create a strong labor market.”In effect, he acknowledged that we have a housing problem, whether it’s a lack of supply, lack of affordability, high rates, or high prices. Or all of the above.He gets it. He knows it’s not ideal. At the same time, he knows we can’t just slash mortgage rates tomorrow and go wild again.That doesn’t work either, and it’s clear the current dynamic where existing homeowners are sitting on 2-4% fixed-rate mortgages for the next 30 years isn’t fair.It’s not fair to the renters, to those facing 7% mortgage rates today. But going back to 2-4% rates isn’t the right solution either.Unfortunately, we have to be patient, and as he said, “restore price stability in a sustainable way.”5-6% Mortgage Rates, Not 3-4% Mortgage RatesWhat that might look like is a 5-6% 30-year fixed rate. Effectively, something in between the rates existing homeowners have and what a prospective buyer could obtain today (or soon).In other words, Goldilocks mortgage rates that aren’t too hot and not too cold. Something that creates a bridge and allows people to buy and sell homes again.Problem is, it won’t be quick or easy, and it’ll take more time. And most of all, we need to continue to be patient and let the housing market find its footing.That being said, the rate cuts will come, you just might need to temper your expectations and instead of hoping for a 3-4% mortgage rate, settle for a 5-6% rate instead.And because of the tariffs, the government spending bill, the wars, we might have to be extra patient there as well.He’s basically got it right, as painful as it is (and has been) for housing industry right now. There are no shortcuts is basically what he’s saying and I tend to agree with him.What this might mean is that cuts are coming, albeit more slowly. Same with lower mortgage rates.But relief might be more muted, something like a 6% 30-year fixed instead of 7%, or high 5s for certain scenarios.That could make for better balance over time as supply/demand in the housing market recalibrates.Just one tiny caveat; there is always room for the unexpected, so even the Fed’s plan could get derailed and the outcome could change, whether that’s even lower mortgage rates sooner or perhaps even higher ones!Read on: Will mortgage rates still drop to 6% by the end of 2025? Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.Latest posts by Colin Robertson (see all)

This metric supports the originators who create a high number of loans but because of factors like local home prices or products offered, have lower total dollar volumes.For example, Ashley McKenzie, a senior mortgage loan officer at Highlands Residential Mortgage in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, ranked fourth by number of loans originated, although she was 11th by dollar volume. McKenzie's response to the marketing question noted she does builder business, with a focus on construction-to-permanent financing.Readers are currently able to view the full list of Top Producers with an upcoming release featuring the nation's Top Women Producers.

Provisions restoring the mortgage insurance premium deduction are included in the Senate reconciliation bill, the latest path for its supporters to bring it back to the Tax Code.It is one of several real estate and housing provisions up for debate, including one that addresses low income housing tax credits.The MI deduction first was approved for the 2007 tax year, after kicking around Congress for several sessions prior. However, the deduction was never made permanent and renewal over the next decade-plus was not a certainty.After the 2021 tax year, the deduction expired.Attempts to revive the MI deductionSeveral bipartisan attempts have been made since then to bring it back, but have failed to get off the ground. The latest is H.R. 2760, from Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Fla. This bill, the Middle Class Mortgage Insurance Premium Act, was introduced in April but has only 11 co-sponsors from both parties, including Rep. Jimmy Panetta, D-Calif.The Senate Finance Committee reconciliation bill, led by Sens. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho and Thom Tillis, R-N.C., includes the restoration provision, said the U.S. Mortgage Insurers.Tillis and Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H. had previously introduced the Senate version of Buchanan's bill, USMI said."Renewing and making permanent the MI premium deduction would deliver meaningful tax relief directly to working class Americans and make homeownership more affordable without increasing risk in the housing finance system," said USMI President Seth Appleton in a statement."From 2007 until its expiration after tax year 2021, the MI premium deduction was claimed 44 million times, representing a combined $65 billion in deductions for hardworking Americans with an average annual deduction of $1,454 per qualified taxpayer."Industry support for the deductionThe Community Home Lenders of America has long-supported bringing the MI deduction back."This just makes sense," Executive Director Scott Olson said. "Federal Housing Administration premiums can be rolled into an FHA loan and therefore are tax deductible; so too should MI premiums, which are comparable."In addition, the CHLA supports the House version of the bill's increase in the state and local tax deduction cap, known as SALT, to $40,000.The group hopes this is "eventually agreed to by the Senate, restoring some of the lost tax deductions related to homeownership that were lost in the 2017 tax bill," Olson said. Whether either of those proposals survives the process is unknown given the need to balance tax cuts with spending reductions to appease groups of Republicans in both houses.The reconciliation bill also includes support for low income housing tax credits.Warnings about a tax code changeMeanwhile, the Mortgage Bankers Association sent a second letter warning that a proposed Section 899 of the Tax Code, included in the House bill, needs to be structured carefully or it could hurt investment and lending in American communities.This new provision, as it currently stands, "would increase the net income and withholding tax rates on U.S.-source income for non-U.S. persons who are classified as 'applicable persons,'" a blog from the legal firm of Paul Hastings said. "Applicable persons include individuals, corporations, governments and sovereign wealth funds, and non-U.S. partnerships resident in a 'discriminatory' country."Previously, on June 12, the MBA was one of 11 signatories, along with the CRE Finance Council, in a letter also supportive of the general concept of Section 899 creating a global tax regime but concerned that "the retaliatory tax measures…could have significant negative, unintended consequences."That included higher mortgage rates and reduced housing supply. An existing portfolio interest exemption would cover assets like mortgage-backed securities. But other equity and debt investments would be impacted.Why the housing finance industry is concernedThe discussions around Section 899 have already stifled potential investors from acting, said David McCarthy, managing director, head of legislative affairs at CREFC; this sentiment was echoed in the MBA letter."Even though the Senate Bill has a delay that it wouldn't necessarily start till 2027, the time horizon on these investments is well beyond that," McCarthy explained. "Folks are concerned that they're going to make an investment and it's going to get caught up in a higher tax regime."The MBA in its recent standalone letter said even with a proposed delay in the Senate version, just the threat of the higher tax rates will choke investment and lending unless appropriately tailored, including specific language which exempts portfolio income.This should make clear it would exclude interest income from mortgages from both U.S. single-family and income producing properties."Increasing the tax rates paid by certain foreign individuals and entities on interest coming from mortgage loans backed by domestic real estate, including single family mortgages, will directly limit the availability and increase the cost of those mortgages. In many cases, it will lead to increased costs for borrowers on loans that have already been made," the letter said.—Bonnie Sinnock contributed to this story

Department of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Scott Turner reiterated his focus on increasing housing supply and streamlining operations at the federal agency."Making housing more affordable and increasing the supply of housing in our country…is a top priority of mine," Turner said at a luncheon hosted by the Exchequer Club and Women in Housing & Finance in Washington on Wednesday.In order to achieve lower housing costs and more supply, the department must "take off anything that is burdening those things," he noted. As has been the case before, Turner highlighted the negative impact of regulations on single-family home construction and manufactured housing."We want to increase manufacturing housing. It's the most affordable," Turner noted. "We want to continue to build much needed affordable housing and manufacturing housing."HUD's Secretary noted the department is currently "taking inventory" of every program, policy and process and eliminating "those that do not advance our mission at HUD to serve the American people." As such, he applauded HUD's Department of Government Efficiency Task Force in helping to "transform the grant process, modernize our IT systems and enhance operations." HUD's head added that the department retired "600 obsolete mortgagee letters dating back to 1978."Regarding policies, Turner once more highlighted his termination of  the Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing rule In response to some members of the audience shaking their heads, Turner pointed out that "we can't keep running in the same place and losing" and that the rule "didn't build any houses."The AFFH rule, which required recipients of HUD funds to take proactive steps to combat segregation, promote fair housing choices, eliminate disparities and foster inclusive communities, was implemented in 2015 under President Barack Obama. Since then, it has remained in limbo, alternating between being repealed and enforced. Turner's actions alone may not be enough to formally end the rule, according to legal experts.The HUD secretary also said there will be pending changes to the department's grant programs "to hold grantees accountable and create transparency about how funds are used once we disperse it."I don't care what you hear in the media. We are not compromising our mission critical functions at HUD," he added.Turner added a jab at the previous administration, noting that the "focus on the mission was lost, but now it is returning." He called policies under the Biden administration "negligent" and some that "allowed the housing affordability crisis to become the status quo." Turner did not go into specifics about what exact policies exacerbated the high cost of homes.

Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's regulator called for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to step down on Wednesday if he doesn't cut short-term rates, as monetary policymakers left them unchanged again."Jay Powell is hurting the housing market by being too late to lower rates. He needs to resign, effective immediately," Bill Pulte said in one post on X. He repeated the call in other posts, indicating he sees inflation has fallen far enough to warrant the move.Pulte's social media posts contributed to escalating statements President Trump has made pressuring Powell to cut rates. The Fed chief's decisions are traditionally made independently and Powell has indicated his decisions will be based solely on economic data.The median projection from policymakers continues to be that they'll cut rates twice before the year is out. But the number of them that anticipate there could be no rate cuts has grown.Pulte indicated his interest in Fed rate cuts is tied to the way they could amplify the influence of the large government-related mortgage investors he oversees. He and President Trump see potential to sell off a stake in them as a potential revenue source."Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can help so many more Americans if Chair Powell will just do his job and lower rates," he said.When asked about the housing market during his press conference Wednesday afternoon, Powell acknowledged that its financing costs are elevated but indicated he won't depart from his current course."We have a longer run shortage of housing, and we also have high rates right now. I think the best thing we can do for the housing market is to restore price stability in a sustainable way and create a strong labor market," he said.Pulte indicated he was listening to the remarks in his posts on Wednesday and said Powell "has no clue what he can do for the housing market. And he's not listening to the people who help lead the housing market."Short-term rates the Fed controls aren't always entirely correlated with what happens to the longer ones that currently dominate the mortgage market, Charlie Wise, head of global research and consulting at TransUnion, noted during a meeting with NMN on Tuesday."That doesn't necessarily translate to relief on the mortgage rate side. Mortgages used to go in lockstep with the Fed funds rate, and haven't recently," he said during a discussion of the company's recent consumer survey and broader economic conditions.TransUnion's survey indicated that while there have been concerns about uncertainty around economic impact of President Trump's fluctuating tariff negotiations and inflation in consumer prices that can threaten stability, consumers have been relatively optimistic.The Fed tends to be reluctant to cut rates and can even raise them when inflation is high and is considered most likely to move to do so if jobs show weakness, which could have negative repercussions for mortgages as it tends to raise delinquency rates.Wednesday's developments are considered most likely to leave rates in their current range, according to Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni."All is, a Fed on hold aligns with our forecast for little change in mortgage rates for the time being," he said in an emailed statement.Originations have been and will likely continue to be somewhat elevated but could be stronger, according to the association."MBA data continue to show modest increases in purchase application activity relative to last year, and we expect that trend to continue for the remainder of 2025 and 2026," Fratantoni said.

Caring wife. Positive aged woman giving a cup of tea to her smiling husband who is sitting at the table and using tablet Past expectations of a wave of homes to hit the market once senior citizens move out are fading, with a majority of baby boomers saying they won't sell for at least another decade — if ever.Just over one-third, or 33.5%, of baby boomers have no plans to sell their current homes in their lifetimes, according to new research from Redfin. Similarly, another 30% thought they would wait at least another decade before listing their properties.  Redfin's report throws cold water in the near term on previous predictions of a "silver tsunami" of inventory to arrive and potentially lead to oversupply. Over the past decade, several housing research groups forecasted a quarter of currently occupied properties to become available in the next 12-to 15 years as baby boomers aged out of their properties. Instead, the findings will exacerbate ongoing challenges for younger generations aspiring to achieve homeownership, Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather said. "With baby boomers opting to age in place rather than sell, it's challenging for younger buyers to find affordable options that fit their lifestyle," Fairweather noted in a press release. "While inventory is improving, supply is tight for young house hunters looking for family homes, especially in suburban areas where homes priced like starter homes — yet large enough for families — are scarce," she added.Even less likely to sell were members of the silent generation born before 1946 still in their homes, with 44.6% hoping to never move, Redfin's report said.  In contrast to their older cohorts, only about 25% of Generation X said they had no plans to sell. Meanwhile, just 21% of millennials and members of Generation Z who have purchased property  called their current residence their forever home. Among younger homeowners expecting to relocate, approximately 55% of Gen X said their move wouldn't occur for at least five years. For millennials and Gen Z, the share was 47%.Why baby boomers are opting to age in placeThe current financial benefits to homeownership, as well as overall satisfaction about their living situation, make staying put desirable for many seniors. The most common reason cited by the majority of baby boomers for choosing not to move was how much they liked their home. Over two-thirds said they had lived in their current residence for at least 16 years. At the same time, 30% also chose to stay because they had already paid off their mortgage. For some, the incentive to age in place boiled down to the same factors influencing overall consumer housing market sentiment — namely, the impact of  the lock-in effect. Nearly 16% said current housing costs were too high for them to consider a move, while 8% didn't want to give up the mortgage rate they currently held.  Redfin's data aligns with similar research published by Freddie Mac in 2024 that found over two-thirds of homeowners over the age of 60 with a preference to keep their properties. In Freddie Mac's report, a clear majority wanted to bequeath their homes to their children. How does this affect the mortgage market? The inclination for baby boomers to remain where they are compounds the effects of already scarce inventory and the resulting spike in home values that have plagued the mortgage industry now for years, Redfin said.With housing prices surging close to 40% from pre-pandemic levels, one-quarter of current millennial and Gen Z renters are not in the market to purchase because they can't afford where they'd like to live, according to the real estate firm's survey.Similarly, 31% of baby boomer households said they wouldn't be able to afford to buy their homes today. Nearly 90% of units owned by the boomer generation consist of single-family homes, applying continued downward pressure to inventory suitable for young families.The high levels of accrued equity among older homeowners, though, are leading to a noticeable upturn in consumer interest for the type of loan products that allow them to tap into their wealth. The most recent estimates of tappable home equity available to consumers over age 62 approached $14 trillion, according to the National Reverse Mortgage Lenders Association.Still, signs that opportunities are opening up for aspiring buyers are emerging and should come from various sources in the future, Redfin said."It's worth noting that even though many older Americans say they're not planning to sell their homes, many are likely to eventually part ways as it becomes harder to live independently and/or keep up with home maintenance," Fairweather said.  

Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged and continued to pencil in two rate cuts in 2025, saying uncertainty over the economic outlook was still high but had diminished.The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously on Wednesday to hold the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 4.25%-4.5%, as they have at each of their meetings this year.Officials also downgraded their estimates for economic growth this year while lifting their forecasts for unemployment and inflation.While the median expectation for two rate cuts in 2025 didn't change, a number of officials lowered their projections. Seven officials now foresee no rate cuts this year, compared with four in March. Two others pointed to one cut this year."Uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished but remains elevated," officials said in their post-meeting statement.Policymakers dropped a line from the previous statement that said risks to both unemployment and inflation had risen.In the run-up to this month's meeting, many officials signaled their preference to hold rates steady for some time as they wait for clarity on how President Donald Trump's economic policies will affect the trajectory of inflation and the broader economy.Fed officials and economists broadly expect the administration's expanded use of tariffs to weigh on economic activity and put upward pressure on inflation. The rate outlook from officials was in line with investors' expectations for cuts this year prior to the announcement.New forecastsPolicymakers on Wednesday also issued updated quarterly rate projections and economic forecasts, the first since Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on US trading partners -- many of which he has since pared back or delayed.Officials raised their median estimate for inflation at the end of 2025 to 3% from 2.7%. They marked down their forecast for economic growth in 2025 1.4% from 1.7%.They forecast an unemployment rate of 4.5% by the end of the year, up slightly from their previous estimate.Thorny situationsThe projections reflect the thorny situation facing Fed policymakers.Trump has imposed new tariffs on dozens of countries since taking office, but has repeatedly wavered on the specifics of the policies. The final level of duties remains subject to change as the administration continues to negotiate trade deals, including a framework agreed upon with China.But officials have warned the central bank may confront challenging trade-offs if tariffs simultaneously drive up inflation and dent economic growth. Growing inflationary pressures typically suggest the Fed policy should restrain the economy with elevated rates, while weakening growth calls for stimulus through lower rates. Trump this year has repeatedly pushed for the Fed to cut rates, arguing the central bank under Powell has often been late to adjust policy.No sign yetNeither employment nor inflation data have yet shown a substantial impact from tariffs. A measure of underlying consumer inflation rose in May by less than forecast, spurring Trump to renew his call for lower rates.Meanwhile, US employers added jobs at a solid pace last month and the unemployment rate held at 4.2%. Fed officials have pointed to the labor market's overall stability as an additional reason to take a patient approach toward adjusting interest rates.Policymakers are also eager to guard against the possibility that tariff-driven price hikes lead to more persistent inflation. Survey data from the University of Michigan has shown a rise in Americans' expectations for future inflation. Officials have acknowledged that development, but have broadly argued that longer-run expectations remain in check.Officials must also try to assess Trump policy changes in other areas. The tax and spending bill working its way through Congress would fulfill some of Trump's most prominent economic priorities, but would widen the US deficit over time and expand economic growth modestly, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. The administration is also stepping up immigration enforcement, thereby limiting the supply of labor to some sectors, and pursuing a deregulatory agenda.

Fears of tariffs and inflation abound these days, with many Americans concerned that rising prices will push up housing costs. But even as younger consumers worry about buying a home, many of them remain hopeful about their own finances, offering some encouraging news to mortgage lenders looking for unmet demand.More than half or 55% of American consumers said they were optimistic about their household finances over the next 12 months, according to a new survey from TransUnion. This is a slight dip from the 58% three months ago, but it's double the 27% who reported pessimism about the coming year. "I think there's this difference between how people are perceiving the world around them, and how they're actually doing themselves," said Charles Wise, senior vice president and head of global research and consulting at TransUnion. He attributes some of this optimism to memories of previous downturns. Many Americans remember surviving events like the Great Recession, and that's giving them more confidence this time around.Tariff fears, and opportunitiesInflation was top of mind for most respondents, with 81% citing it as one of their top 3 concerns. Many also pointed to interest rates, housing prices, and a possible recession as worries they had for the near future. As President Donald Trump's trade war continues to drag on, tariffs are also weighing on consumers' minds, with 67% of people indicating that they were worried tariffs might drive up prices. Despite these concerns, one-third of consumers said they plan to apply for new credit or refinance debt during the next year, with that number even higher for Gen Z and Millennials. This consumer interest in credit is a good sign for mortgage lenders, especially if rates fall. Since 2022, more than 8 million mortgages have originated at 6.5% or above, Wise said. That has created a lot of pent-up demand — and potential future opportunity for lenders."It is very likely that every one of those consumers would be jumping at the chance to refinance if rates were to dip below 6%," he said.However, to date the most recent application numbers from the Mortgage Banker Association show that demand for refinancing has been limited.That said, with more than 80 million mortgages and $21 trillion in equity across the United States, there is some interest in borrowing against it, Wise noted."More than the GDP of China is sitting in people's homes that they can't tap into other than through a home equity product," he said.Among those looking to take on additional credit in the next year, 16% said they were looking to either add a new home equity line of credit or refinance an existing mortgage. This adds to signs that home equity products are in increasing demand.Interest in adding a new HELOC in the next 12 months was up by 3 percentage points from the previous quarter's Consumer Pulse survey, while interest in refinancing remained unchanged.A Young / Old DivideGen Z and Millennials reported greater confidence in their finances than older Americans, with younger folks saying they're less likely to cut back on spending and more likely to sign up for new subscriptions and services. In contrast, Gen Xers and Baby Boomers were more worried about the next year, possibly out of fear that their retirement savings won't keep up with inflation."When costs go up, there's not a lot of wiggle room if you're at or near retirement in terms of your income," Wise said.Younger folks, on the other hand, may be buoyed by youthful idealism. Wise said many expect to find better jobs and pay soon."Most young people in their 20s, even early 30s, are like, 'Oh, sure, I'll be getting a raise next year and the year after that,'" he said.Fighting FraudThe report also raised new concerns about fraud, something that increasing numbers of HELOC lenders are facing and which may take on a new dimension with the rise of artificial intelligence. Forty-two percent of Americans said they were targeted by some kind of fraud scheme in the last three months, and 9% said they were victims of a scam. Phishing and smishing – text messages that aim to trick targets into clicking on a suspicious link or revealing personal info – were the most common types.But despite the increasing ubiquity of phone, text, and email phishing schemes, many Americans still may not be taking sufficient precautions. Fewer than half of respondents have recently changed their password or checked their credit report in the last two months, and more than a quarter said they've done nothing at all.

In yet another mortgage tie-up, Guild Mortgage has agreed to be acquired by Bayview Asset Management.It’s pretty big news in the mortgage world because Guild was the 11th largest mortgage lender in 2024, per HMDA data.And ultimately not that far off from being in the top-5 nationally if they had mustered just a little more loan volume.Once combined with their acquirer, who happens to own a major loan servicer, they could make an even bigger splash and grow to be closer to other elite names in the space.The deal also takes Guild private for about $20 per share, which could change how they operate going forward.Guild Mortgage Will Combine with Lakeview Loan Servicing for Recapture OpportunityThe story is a familiar one lately. A mortgage lender linking up with a loan servicer, similar to Rocket’s acquisition of Mr. Cooper.What’s interesting here is Bayview Asset Management happens to own the nation’s largest mortgage loan servicer, Lakeview Loan Servicing.Slightly confusing given all the views in the names, and the bay versus lake, but stay with me here.This is a similar play to the Rocket/Mr. Cooper merger, with a loan originator (Guild) combining with a loan servicer (Lakeview Loan Servicing).While Lakeview is a major loan servicer (and their website still says “Largest mortgage loan servicer in the U.S.”), I believe Mr. Cooper is technically bigger.Mr. Cooper also says on their website, “We’re the largest mortgage servicer in the country-with over 5 million customers.”Regardless, it’s the same strategy, except Guild Mortgage is a distributed retail mortgage company and Rocket is consumer direct. But once the loans are originated, they will all stay in-house.Guild says it operates a “coast-to-coast distributed retail origination model,” while Lakeview says it has 2.8 million mortgages in its servicing portfolio.Over time, that number will likely grow as Guild feeds Lakeview, thereby creating additional recapture opportunities.That in turn theoretically creates more origination volume, and so on and so forth, perhaps propelling Guild into the top-10 mortgage lender list and beyond.This has been a key strategy in the mortgage playbook lately without loan origination volume falling off a cliff.It’s easier to mine your own database for prospects than it is to go out and look for new prospects. And probably a lot cheaper too!The question is if it’s good for customers, who may not look beyond their original lender, even if the interest rate is higher, or the closing costs more expensive.Guild Mortgage Will Continue to Operate as an Independent EntityAfter the merger, Guild Mortgage (NYSE: GHLD) will continue to operate as an independent entity, which makes sense given their established retail brand.But instead of being a public company, it will go private and shareholders will receive $20 per share.That’s up about 25% from the prior close and values Guild at around $1.3 billion. Also not a bad premium above the company’s 52-week low around $11.As noted, Guild will also work “in close partnership with Lakeview Loan Servicing” to create a new mortgage ecosystem that combines loan origination and servicing.The company said “there will be no material change to Guild’s brand, business operations or customer experience as a result of the agreement.”Guild’s executives and management teams will also remain, though it’s unclear if there will be any operational layoffs as a result of the merger.Guild Mortgage was founded all the way back in 1960 and is licensed in 49 states and the District of Columbia (New York state the only exception).The company funded $22.8 billion in home loans last year, with a near-90% share coming from home purchase lending.They were most active in the states of California, Colorado, Missouri, Nevada, Oregon, Texas, Utah, and Washington. Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.Latest posts by Colin Robertson (see all)