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President Trump has called on the big home builders to build more homes in a new social media post.It’s no secret that housing affordability is terrible at the moment, and one of the reasons is a lack of available for-sale supply.As we all know from economics 101, or simply daily life, the greater the supply of something, the lower the price.So if the builders decided to build more homes, we’d arguably see asking prices fall, thereby improving affordability.The problem is the home builders are already sitting on a supply glut and they’re for-profit companies.Trump Accuses Big Home Builders of Sitting on Empty LotsWhile Trumps’ Truth Social post above might be well-intentioned (who doesn’t want a cheaper house to buy), it’s not necessarily feasible.In his post, he compared the big home builders to OPEC, claiming the latter “kept Oil prices high.”He added that “it wasn’t right for them to do that,” and said it was now “being done again.”However, this apparent cartel is being committed “by the Big Homebuilders of our Nation” this time around, who he goes on to say are his friends.The President pointed out that “they’re sitting on 2 Million empty lots,” which he claimed is a record, while simultaneously asking for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to get them building more.It’s unclear what that plan to get them going might be, but you’d assume some sort of financing deal to make homeownership more attractive if it involves the GSEs.Some sort of incentive for first-time home buyers to put the American Dream back within reach.While it sounds good on the surface, it’s hard to blame the home builders for the current supply shortfall.They’re already sitting on too many homes in the communities where they’ve built, which explains why they’re offering record incentives to their customers.If they have to offer major incentives, including massive mortgage rate buydowns, to move inventory, it makes little sense to build more.Exacerbating this is the cost of supplies to build homes thanks to tariffs, something the Trump administration implemented.And perhaps the cost of labor, which has possibly been disrupted due to sweeping raids of illegal immigrants.Poor Housing Affordability Has Already Led to a Supply Glut of Newly-Built HomesNow let’s consider new home supply, which increased to 490,000 units as of the end of August 2025, per the Census Bureau.While it was 1.4% below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000, it was 4% above the August 2024 estimate of 471,000.And the only reason it’s not much higher is because of a surprise hot new home sales print last month.That surprise print also pushed the supply of new homes for sale down to 7.4 months, which was below the 9.0 months in July and the August 2024 estimate of 8.2 months.However, prior to this unexpected turn lower it was approaching 10 months of supply, which only happened in September 2022 when mortgage rates more than doubled.And in 2008, when the mortgage crisis led to one of the worst housing downturns in history.What’s more, economists don’t even seem to believe the August new homes report data, which is subject to big revisions.It also seemed to conflict deeply with home builder sentiment, which has been quite poor, and industry chatter that has pointed to weak buyer activity.Just consider a recent quote from Lennar’s Co-CEO Stuart Miller during their third quarter 2025 earnings release.He said, “We believe that now is a good time to moderate our volume and allow the market to catch up.”During the quarter, the company delivered 21,584 homes and recorded 23,004 new orders, but not without major concessions.“Achieving these results required additional incentives, resulting in a reduced average sales price of $383,000, and our gross margin drifted down to 17.5%, while our SG&A expenses came in at 8.2%, reflecting the soft market conditions.”Then there’s D.R. Horton, the nation’s top home builder, whose Executive Chairman David Auld said, “New home demand continues to be impacted by ongoing affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment.”“We expect our sales incentives to remain elevated and increase further during the fourth quarter,the extent to which will depend on the strength of demand during the remainder of summer, changes in mortgage interest rates and other market conditions.”Buyer Demand Is Weak and New Homes Aren’t Located in the Right PlacesIn other words, the nation’s two largest home builders are saying the same thing. Buyer demand is weak due to a lack of affordability.And the only way to move homes right now is to offer huge incentives to customers.One major strategy lately has been the mortgage rate buydowns, which both builders employ via their captive mortgage lenders, Lennar Mortgage and DHI Mortgage, respectively.Asking them to build even more homes and take a haircut on pricing just didn’t make sense.Also, the places where they have land and build aren’t necessarily where we need more new homes.Unfortunately, home builders often only build in the outskirts of major metros, where there’s already ample supply.Building even more homes in faraway places won’t solve this housing crisis.We need more existing home supply in places where families actually want to live. But much of it is off the market due to things like mortgage rate lock-in.Perhaps incentivizing existing homeowners to sell is a better strategy than continuing to build where people don’t want to buy.Read on: Should I buy a new home or a used home? Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.Latest posts by Colin Robertson (see all)

Key Insight: The deal marks the largest bank acquisition announcement of 2025, and Fifth Third's first since 2019.What's at Stake: Comerica had been facing calls from an activist investor to sell itself for months, though CEO Curt Farmer said that the external pressure wasn't a factor Supporting Data: When completed, the deal will create the ninth-largest bank in the country, with $288 billion of assets.Note: This is a developing story. Check back for additional updates from management and analysts.Fifth Third Bancorp said it has inked a deal to acquire Comerica in a $10.9 billion transaction that will create the ninth-largest bank in the country.The Cincinnati-based company will buy the Dallas-based peer in an all-stock purchase expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, creating a company with a combined $288 billion of assets. Fifth Third has been focused on an organic growth strategy across the Southeast, along with expanding its payments capabilities. Fifth Third CEO Tim Spence said in an interview on Monday that the Comerica purchase will not only complement his bank's strategic initiatives, but will also become its top priority going forward."This is officially the biggest thing we've ever done as a company, by any measure," Spence said. "So it is number one, two and three for us, in terms of the focus." When completed, Fifth Third expects half of its branches to be in the higher-growth Southeast, including Texas and Arizona.Fifth Third Chief Financial Officer Bryan Preston said on a Monday morning call with analysts that the deal "brings together highly compatible businesses and industry-leading products and services," adding that the combination cements Fifth Third's presence in the Midwest, and "dramatically" expands growth prospects in Texas, Arizona and California.Scott Siefers, an analyst at Piper Sandler, wrote in a note that the deal marks a "significant acceleration" of Fifth Third's growth in Texas, calling it "basically a game-changer." The acquisition comes amid a flurry of bank deals, as the regulatory and economic environment has greased the wheels for financial institutions to buy each other after several years of relatively tepid acquisition activity.The deal also comes 10 weeks after activist investor HoldCo Asset Management issued a report calling for Comerica to sell itself, arguing that the Dallas-based company made poor financial decisions in recent years and keeps failing to address its lagging stock price performance.The asset manager's 52-page report called out Comerica's stock price since Curt Farmer became CEO in 2019 and accused the bank of not taking responsibility for what it said were "disastrous decisions" related to interest-rate risk and other blunders by the bank's management. It urged Comerica to hire an investment banker and begin the process of marketing and selling itself.HoldCo owns approximately 1.8% of Comerica's common shares. The group was in the midst of launching a proxy battle to install up to five new directors on Comerica's 11-person board.Farmer, in a Monday morning interview with American Banker, declined to comment on any specific activist investors, but said that external pressure "did not factor into our decisioning here.""We had been thinking about — really coming out of the regional bank crisis in the spring of 2023 — more and more about the need for scale, for the need for a bigger, granular retail deposit base. It's something our board had been weighing for a while."He added that those thoughts had accelerated over the last six months, and then it was "a matter of evaluating the decision." Farmer said the deal proposal with Fifth Third "unfolded fairly quickly."Farmer will stay on at Fifth Third as vice chair for an undisclosed period of time to assist with the transition, but he told American Banker he'll remain for as long as it's valuable for the franchise. Spence said that "when the time is right," Farmer will also become part of the bank's board of directors.Jon Arfstrom, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets who covers Comerica, wrote in a note that the announcement was "consistent" with his expectations for the Dallas company, following the "dialogue around Comerica's longer-term performance and strategic outlook.""In our view, while the interest rate environment has been a challenge for Comerica's profitability, we continue to see significant value in the company's commercial lending franchise and footprint which encompasses attractive markets in Michigan, California and Texas," Arfstrom wrote. Fifth Third's stock was relatively flat as of mid-morning Monday. Comerica's stock price was up more than 14%.Allissa Kline contributed to this story.

A federal judge dismissed the most serious charges against United Wholesale Mortgage in a racketeering lawsuit which arose from an explosive media report last spring. U.S. District Judge Brandy R. McMillion this week tossed all but two claims against the megalender which borrowers suggested improperly steered them to higher cost loans. The class action case, which invoked accusations typically levied against organized crime syndicates, argued that UWM holds brokers captive in curbing wholesale competition and overcharging borrowers. The lawsuit originated last April from the first-ever report by Hunterbrook which published a lengthy probe into UWM's practices. The newsroom's hedge-fund parent at that time also publicly announced a short position in UWM and long position in rival Rocket Cos.An amended 249-page lawsuit by UWM borrowers accused the lender of violating the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, as well as the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act and other state consumer protection laws. McMillion only left intact two Real Estate Settlement and Procedures Act and consumer protection law claims against three individuals. The Pontiac, Michigan-based company celebrated the ruling in a statement Friday. "This decision confirms the entire case is nearly resolved in our favor and underscores that there was no merit from the start to the allegations," read the statement. "We are confident the remaining claims will also be resolved in our favor."Attorneys for the named plaintiffs didn't respond to requests for comment Friday. Why a judge sided with the lender over borrowersThe case drew on findings in the Hunterbrook report, which found over 8,000 independent brokers sending 99% or more of their loans to UWM. The "corrupt UWM loyalist" brokers were sending loans to the wholesale giant regardless of the comparative costs, therefore allegedly violating their fiduciary duty to home buyers. UWM immediately slammed the lawsuit, and criticized the media outlet's relationship with the hedge fund, accusing them of sensationalizing public information to manipulate the stock market. In the 87-page opinion and order filed Monday, the judge found plaintiffs had met a few of the elements needed for the RICO counts but still fell short of meeting legal requirements. "But here, the Plaintiffs have not sufficiently alleged intent because the underlying fraudulent acts focus on the brokers' conduct, not UWM," wrote McMillion, who did not place culpability on brokers either.The borrowers also did not suggest UWM intentionally defrauded plaintiffs into their alleged higher cost loans. McMillion also cited UWM's victories in litigation related to its "All-In" ultimatum, stating courts have already upheld the legitimacy of its wholesale broker agreement and that it wasn't a focus of this case. "Nothing in the broker agreement … explains that brokers are prohibited from shopping lenders (other than Rocket or Fairway) or that they are required to exclusively offer UWM loans," wrote McMillion. "And that is telling for the court."McMillion further explained rationale for dismissing most of the RESPA claims, aiding and abetting claims and other alleged violations of consumer protection laws. She also dismissed the cases against UWM's holding company and President and CEO Mat Ishbia. What happens next?Most of the dismissals were made with prejudice, meaning they cannot be refiled. No further hearings nor deadlines were scheduled in the court docket as of Friday afternoon. Hunterbrook has not posted any updates regarding UWM. A Hunterbrook link where consumers can look up their broker to see if they were "ripped off" via the purported scheme remains online. The outlet has continued to publish lengthy investigations of various financial firms, including a probe this week of a national homebuilder. UWM still faces other legal challenges, including accusations of predatory lending by the Ohio attorney general. That lawsuit also accuses UWM of scheming with loyalist brokers to dupe customers. A federal judge remanded that lawsuit to a state court in September, a move which UWM appealed to keep in a federal forum. The court this week also rejected UWM's motion to pause the proceedings while its appeal is underway; the lender declined to comment on the case Friday.

I got to thinking that mortgage rates might be kind of stuck where they are until more new data gets released.There’s just one little problem at the moment; the government is closed. And has been since October 1st.This means we won’t get a lot of new economic data, perhaps most notably the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).That was slated to be released this morning, but due to the shutdown it has been “delayed.”Does that mean mortgage rates are stuck until the data starts flowing again? Maybe.Mortgage Rates Stuck Near Recent Lows Isn’t Necessarily a Bad ThingFirst things first, even if mortgage rates are stuck at current levels, it could be a lot worse.After all, the 30-year fixed is currently hovering around 6.34%, whether you believe Freddie Mac or Mortgage News Daily, just above those red circles in the chart above.They’re both at the same exact number. Of course, mortgage rates are typically offered in eighths, so that actual rate could be 6.25% or 6.375%.Anyway, the point here is that mortgage rates are actually pretty attractive at the moment.Imagine if the government had shut down when mortgage rates were 7% or higher?Instead, they’re near some of the best levels since mortgage rates began their monster ascent higher back in 2022.So rates possibly being stuck here could be viewed in a positive light. No surprise hot jobs report or CPI report to send mortgage rates higher again.Aside from not releasing these reports, the government has also “halted collection of information for future reports,” including the CPI report that is expected to be released on October 15th.So even if the government shutdown ends soon or before some of these reports are expected to be released, new data will be delayed and we’ll need to be patient.But Are Mortgage Rates Really Stuck When We Have Private Economic Data?While we aren’t going to get key economic reports like the CPI report, PPI report, retail sales, the BLS jobs report, or even housing starts, some economic data is still being released.For example, we got the monthly ADP jobs report on Wednesday and it provided some pretty decent clues that the jobs data continues to be very weak.We already knew labor was in a bad spot, with the June, July, and August reports all coming in light, along with big downward revisions.The ADP report didn’t seem to detract much if at all, with the private sector losing 32,000 jobs in the month of September, well below the forecast of 45,000 jobs created.And the number of jobs created in August 2025 was revised down from 54,000 to -3,000, similar to what we saw with the government’s job report a month ago.Economists tend to put more trust into the BLS jobs report, but ADP is echoing the same stuff and still provides a pretty good sample size minus government jobs.There’s also a growing trend toward independent data collection thanks to technology and AI, which could ramp up even faster in light of what’s happening with the government.Especially with the massive revisions of late, which have caused some to lose faith.Mass Firings, Geopolitics, and Other Surprises Can Move Mortgage Rates TooSpeaking of, we continue to hear threats of mass government firings, which could push up the unemployment rate even more.There’s also always the odd geopolitical issue that could pop up unexpectedly, pushing bond yields lower if there’s a flight to safety away from stocks.So if you think about it, there’s plenty going on even without the release of key reports.As I wrote before, bond yields tend to fall during government shutdowns. Even if we’re flying in the dark data-wise, there might still be downward pressure on mortgage rates.Of course, there may have been even more downward movement if the September jobs report were actually released today.However, that’s not a given. We don’t know if that report would have come in hot or cold. It sure feels like it would have been another dud, but you never know.In the meantime, enjoy some of the lowest mortgage rates of the past three years.(photo: lorenz.markus97) Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.Latest posts by Colin Robertson (see all)

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could change how they approach affordable housing goals next year if their oversight agency's new affordable-housing goal proposal moves forward.Some of the proposed benchmarks the Federal Housing Finance Agency published Thursday aren't as high as those from a year ago and shift away from competitive efforts to serve low-income borrowers, instead showing deference to other public and private programs."In some instances it is appropriate to set benchmarks that are lower than the market forecasts to encourage other secondary market outlets to participate in the market," the FHFA said in the 2026 proposal filed in the Federal Register.(While a public sector shutdown has been in effect since Oct. 1 due to an impasse in congressional negotiations, the two government-sponsored enterprises operate outside of the federal budget process and were still able to update the register.)The proposed single-family benchmarksThe owner-occupied home purchase goal would fall from 25% to 21% for those with low incomes, defined as no higher than 80% of the area median. For those with very low incomes no higher than 50% of AMI, the goal drops from 6% to 3.5% A sub-goal for minority census tracts would be combined with the one for low-income regions. The result would be a single low-income home purchase sub-goal.The low-income refinance goal stays at 16%. (Multifamily goals also are unchanged.)The FHFA also proposed and lowered its home purchase goals last year by 3 percentage points for the low-income purchase goal. It lowered that goal by 1 percentage point for very low income AMIs. It had raised its sub-goal for minority census tracts by 2 percentage points at that time.More on why the FHFA says it wants to lower some goalsThe FHFA, which has been rebranded but retains its previous legal title in the register, showed a specific interest in deferring to direct government agencies like the Federal Housing Administration, banks, state housing finance agencies and private-label securitizers in its goalsThe agency said it plans to "undertake a critical examination of how the enterprises' activities intersect with, impact, and compete with FHA's mission, the health of the PLS market, and financial institutions' obligations under the Community Reinvestment Act."FHFA did acknowledge that "if housing goals are set too low, there is a risk of a decrease in liquidity and outreach to low- and moderate-income borrowers," but said three factors would prevent that from occurring:Fannie and Freddie's broader missions around serving low- and moderate-income borrowers, A sizable and profitable low-mod market exists outside of that covered by the other agencies"It is not in the enterprises' interest to cease purchases from this market because it would result in a substantial loss of business and market reach," FHFA said.Ceding more loans at the lower end of the income spectrum to FHA may be conducive to exploring a new stock offering related to the GSEs, which have been in conservatorship since 2008.If the goals move forward, lenders may find themselves with fewer options available for low-income borrowers in some cases. FHA rates for low-income borrowers are typically higher than the enterprises' in cases where those consumers qualify for loans Fannie or Freddie will buy.FHA has insurance charges aimed at covering its risks for backing loans that typically are made to borrowers with thinner financial buffers against distress than those the enterprises purchase.The FHFA will be accepting comments on its proposed affordable housing goals until Nov. 3.Other proposals the FHFA is withdrawingThe agency also announced in a separate Federal Register filing that it is withdrawing a few proposals the previous administration had put into place but did not finalize:Minimum liquidity requirements for the enterprises: This 2021 initiative was aimed at ensuring Fannie and Freddie would be able to meet their obligations in stressed markets by drawing up requirements for certain eligible assets and enforcement.Amendments to Federal Home Loan Bank capital requirements: The 2024 proposal  would have introduced some flexibility in limits on unsecured extensions of credit in derivative transactions by expanding the allowable exclusions.Other FHLB clarifications: This 2024 proposal generally focused on amended rules for directorships and related compensation, board and committee meeting conduct, employee conflicts of interest and responsibilities associated with different roles.FHFA is both the conservator and regulator for Fannie and Freddie. It regulates the FHLBanks.

An appellate court has ruled against Flagstar Bank in a California case which had been mentioned in connection with a New York escrow interest case heard by the U.S. Supreme Court.The ruling in Kivett v. Flagstar was the second against a bank in recent weeks. A Sept. 22 First Circuit ruling sent a similar case against Citizens Bank back to a lower court.What the U.S. Supreme Court said about state vs. federal banking lawIn May 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court essentially punted on making a ruling in Cantero v. Bank of America, where the parties argued which takes precedence — the federal National Banking Act or New York law requiring the payment of interest on escrow accounts.That ruling sent Cantero back to the Second Circuit for deeper analysis of the issues at hand. In the first go round on its way up to the high court, the Second Circuit ruled in favor of B of A in dismissing the case.Meanwhile, in its previous rulings, the Ninth Circuit had held in favor of Kivett, creating a conflict in interpretations.What happened with Kivett following the Cantero rulingFollowing the Cantero ruling, the U.S. Supreme Court granted a petition from Flagstar to vacate the Ninth Circuit decision and remand this case as well. Last August, the Ninth Circuit upheld its original ruling. Flagstar asked for a panel rehiring, which was granted.Industry groups, including the Mortgage Bankers Association and American Bankers Association, filed an amicus brief in support of Flagstar. On the other hand, state regulator organizations, the American Association of Residential Mortgage Regulators and the Conference of State Bank Supervisors wrote in support of the original decision.In an Oct. 2 decision, this court ruled 2-1 to affirm the original district court ruling that the National Banking Act did not preempt California's requirements on payment of interest on escrows.It also vacated and remanded to the district court to modify the class definition date for borrowers covered by the lawsuit and the judgment amount.The Ninth Circuit mentioned a previous ruling in favor of the state's escrow law in another case, Lusnak v. Bank of America. The majority said it did not have the ability to overrule that case in Kivett because the Supreme Court's Cantero ruling did not make that decision irreconcilable with Lusnak.What was the majority's reasoning in ruling against Flagstar?"We do not hold that Lusnak was correctly decided, only that we have no authority to overrule it," wrote Judge Jay Bybee in the majority decision. "Correction in this court, if any is warranted, is only appropriate through our en banc procedures."An en banc hearing involves all of the judges on an appellate court and can be an intervening step before a case goes before the U.S. Supreme Court. Bybee had cited an en banc ruling, Miller v. Gamme, which also set standards on whether a three judge panel can overrule a precedent like Lusnak."Because Cantero did not decide whether the NBA preempts state interest-on-escrow laws, the result is not inconsistent with Lusnak's judgment," Bybee said. "Nor is Cantero's holding — that the Second Circuit erred in applying a categorial test for preemption — inconsistent with Lusnak."What was the minority opinion supporting Flagstar?But the dissenting judge, Ryan Nelson, said Cantero is clearly irreconcilable with Lusnak (and thus Kivett) because the older decision did not apply the comparative analysis spelled out by the U.S. Supreme Court."We are disappointed by the Court's decision," said Bao Nguyen, senior executive vice president, general counsel at Flagstar Bank in a statement. "As Judge Nelson correctly points out, today's decision continues to rely on the flawed logic of the Lusnak case and completely ignores the instructions of the Supreme Court that require lower courts to conduct a nuanced comparative analysis of Supreme Court precedents to determine whether a state law is preempted."Flagstar plans to pursue a further appeal in order to preserve the federal preemption, which Nguyen said is essential to the dual banking system.However, Flagstar is no longer in the mortgage servicing business. In 2024, it sold the portfolio to Mr. Cooper, which on Oct. 1 became a part of Rocket Cos.Why the First Circuit ruled against Citizens BankThe First Circuit case, Conti v. Citizens Bank, involves Rhode Island law. The three-judge panel ruled unanimously to vacate a district court ruling in favor of Citizens to dismiss the case, also citing Cantero.Because the district court ruling was made prior to the U.S. Supreme Court decision "without the benefit of Cantero, incorrectly granted Citizens' motion to dismiss," wrote Judge Seth Aframe.The First Circuit had stayed Conti's appeal while Cantero was being decided. The argument in the Conti case then became: did the lower court apply the Cantero analysis?How Cantero affected the Conti law suit"As Citizens acknowledges, interest-on-escrow laws have been enacted by at least twelve states," Aframe said. "Furthermore, Congress has mandated compliance with state interest-on-escrow laws as to a select set of mortgages under [the Truth in Lending Act]."Citizens had argued that the federal preemption applies when state law dictates the terms of a banking product, but the panel rejected that reasoning.Among the reasons cited by Aframe was that Citizens' proposed test did not follow the relevant legal precedents cited by the U.S. Supreme Court in Cantero.Citizens Bank declined to comment on the First Circuit ruling.

The mortgage industry's top trade group issued two new enhancements to help establish consistency across the loan boarding process as well as in communications surrounding artificial intelligence. The Mortgage Industry Standards Maintenance Organization released its new loan boarding dataset, which provides a consistent data baseline to ease the path for newly originated mortgage loans to be transferred to servicing platforms. Use of the dataset is encouraged to avoid problems that appear both during loan setup and the servicing transfer as a result of missing or incomplete information. "Establishing a common dataset at the point of loan boarding is a major step forward in improving servicing data exchange across the industry," said MISMO Acting President Rick Hill in a press release. "The loan boarding data segment will help ensure more accurate, consistent information is exchanged, creating benefits for servicers and a better overall experience for borrowers."The dataset will help reduce loan activation time and minimize costs coming from data errors when loans are transferred, MISMO said. It also should enable clear communication between originators, servicers and subservicers and eliminate the need to create multiple custom boarding files. Created by MISMO's servicing transfer development workgroup, the dataset was developed with input coming from across the mortgage industry, including the participation of the government-sponsored enterprises.MISMO, which operates as a unit within the Mortgage Bankers Association, is also asking servicers to compare its dataset against their own existing specifications to identify current gaps. Any identified gaps should be reported to MISMO in order to help it improve the loan boarding guidelines.The arrival of new recommended AI terminologyMISMO's loan boarding dataset arrives just a few days after the organization also officially released its artificial intelligence glossary, which it describes as "a resource designed to establish a shared vocabulary for AI across mortgage finance."The group initially published a draft version in July and opened up the glossary for industry comment prior to its finalization and launch earlier this week.   "By creating a common vocabulary, the AI glossary provides the foundation for consistency and clarity, helping lenders, servicers, regulators and technology providers better collaborate and innovate responsibly," Hill said. The glossary is the first of many initiatives MISMO plans to introduce to support AI adoption within the mortgage industry through guidance and suggested best practices. Mortgage industry partners can put forward new terms for future inclusion and contribute other recommendations to ensure the glossary remains up to date, MISMO advised."As AI technology continues to evolve, new concepts, methodologies and terminologies emerge. This resource will be regularly updated to reflect the latest advancements and is available for the entire industry to use," Hill previously said at the time of the draft release. Among terms included in the initial glossary are big data, natural language processing and responsible artificial intelligence.

Key insight: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson described a delicate balancing act, supporting moderate rate cuts to protect jobs while keeping long-term inflation under control.Supporting data: GDP growth slowed to 1.6% in the first half of 2025, and tariffs are nudging prices higher as long-term expectations remain anchored.Forward look: Jefferson emphasized durable inflation expectations and a flexible approach under the revised Fed framework.PHILADELPHIA — Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson Friday said slowing economic growth and a cooling labor market are raising downside risks to employment, while tariffs are nudging inflation higher.Jefferson's remarks, delivered to a crowd at the Drexel Economic Forum, expressed his ongoing concern with rising prices related to tariffs. However, he characterized the tariff-driven effects as largely one-off, and expects inflation from those tariffs to run its course this year. "Short-term inflation expectations have come down from the peaks reached in the second quarter, and most measures of longer-term inflation expectations have been largely stable, suggesting that the American people understand our commitment to returning inflation to our 2% target," Jefferson said. "As such, I expect the disinflation process to resume after this year and inflation to return to the 2% target in the coming years."Jefferson's speech is emblematic of a tricky balancing act that Fed officials have been grappling with all year: The labor market is softening, but inflation remains above target, creating risks to the economy from either lowering or raising rates. He signaled support for modest rate cuts to protect jobs while keeping a close eye on long-term price stability, as evidenced by his vote for a 25 basis point reduction at the last FOMC meeting. "This change moved our policy rate closer to a more neutral stance while maintaining a balanced approach to promoting our dual-mandate objectives," Jefferson said, adding he is open to further easing if the labor market weakens, but not at the expense of unmooring inflation expectations.He noted that economic growth has slowed somewhat this year. GDP grew at 1.6% in the first half of 2025, down from 2.4% last year, with weaker consumer spending the main hindrance. The remarks come at a time when the government is shuttered, which has postponed the release of critical economic data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release its September jobs report Friday after the agency was shut down with the rest of the federal government after funding expired on Sept. 30. The agency said its last update was Oct. 1 and will resume only once the government reopens.Vice Chair Jefferson said that the delay in data was not a major concern, given he makes his decisions based on the collective economic data available. Jefferson also discussed the Fed's revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, emphasizing that the framework maintains much continuity with past frameworks while updating language in certain areas. Jefferson said the Fed updated its long-term policy framework to match today's economy, moving away from the low-interest-rate worries that shaped the post-financial crisis period. The Fed will now use a flexible approach to inflation as a guiding principle."At the time of the FOMC's previous framework review, during 2019 and 2020, policymakers were considering an economy that had for many years demonstrated low growth, low inflation, and a very flat Phillips curve — meaning that inflation was not very responsive to slack in the economy," he said. "The overarching concern for central bankers at that time was how to operate when short-term interest rates are near the [effective lower bound]. Today, of course, we are operating in a very different environment, at least in part brought on by the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic."

Key Insight: Payroll firm ADP showed that employers lost 32,000 jobs in September, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release its scheduled jobs report Friday because of the federal government shutdown.Forward look: The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in September as a "risk management" move. The absence of a key economic indicator complicates the Federal Reserve's outlook and has fueled calls from lawmakers to reopen the Bureau of Labor Statistics.Expert quote: "But let's be clear: the jobs data scheduled to come out this Friday has undoubtedly been collected and the President must release it." — Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release its September jobs report Friday after the agency was shut down with the rest of the federal government when funding expired on Sept. 30. The agency said its last update was October 1 and will resume only once the government reopens.The shutdown comes as the labor market appears to be softening. ADP recently reported that employers lost 32,000 jobs in September. The report also revised August's figures down sharply, from 54,000 jobs added to a net loss of 3,000. ADP's numbers showed job growth slowing across industries even alongside 4.5% annual pay gains.The BLS reported sluggish growth in August in last month's report, when the economy added just 22,000 jobs and unemployment ticked up to 4.3%. Those results raised expectations the Federal Reserve might continue to cut interest rates at its meeting later this month after lowering rates by 25 basis points during last month's meeting.The lack of a reliable September jobs report drew criticism from Senate Banking Committee ranking member Elizabeth Warren D-Mass., who called on President Donald Trump to release the September report, which she said has already been collected and processed. "Donald Trump's economic agenda is inflicting massive pain on our economy and to add to the economic uncertainty, he's shut down the government rather than save health care for millions of Americans. But let's be clear: the jobs data scheduled to come out this Friday has undoubtedly been collected and the President must release it," Warren said. "Without it, the Federal Reserve will not have the full picture it needs to make decisions this month about interest rates that will impact every family across the country." The government shutdown is hobbling other critical federal functions as well. Mortgage approvals in flood-prone areas have been stalled with federal flood insurance on pause. Small Business Administration and Community Development Financial Institution lending programs are also frozen, which restricts credit to small businesses and low-income borrowers. Although financial regulators like the Fed and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. remain funded, the blackout of official statistics leaves lenders and policymakers flying with less visibility.That lack of data also clouds the Fed's own calculus for monetary decisions. The agency's Federal Open Market Committee cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, lowering the federal funds rate in its first reduction since December. Officials described the move as a risk management cut, with the goal of offsetting labor market weakness, even with inflation still running somewhat above its 2% target rate.Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid argued that policy should stay "slightly restrictive" to keep inflation in check, while Vice Chair Philip Jefferson warned that tariffs and immigration limits are clouding the outlook and pressuring both sides of the Fed's mandate.

Investors don't need the official government jobs report to see that the labor market has shifted into a lower gear.Even without the marquee data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics — which won't be published on Friday due to the government shutdown — a number of private-sector indicators out in recent days pointed to sluggish hiring, limited layoffs, modest pay gains and easing demand for workers in September. READ MORE: Agencies issue shutdown-related guidance for lendersThe figures largely align with the low-hire, low-fire conditions seen before the government data went dark. Assuming that holds through the end of the month, it could very well be enough to spur another interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve — as investors expect. "We can get an impressionistic sense of what the labor market is doing without the jobs report," said Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. "With everything we see, I think they can feel OK cutting later this month."Here's a snapshot of the latest figures on the labor market:HiringWith the jobs report absent, ADP Research data on private-sector employment was the highest-profile release on the labor market this week. While economists are typically quick to cast doubt on ADP's data as it hasn't always aligned with the government's count, the latest tally was muddied by a statistical adjustment that made the figures more difficult to interpret.ADP reported payrolls at US companies dropped by 32,000 in September after a revised 3,000 decline a month earlier. While that may overstate the weakness in the labor market, ADP said it didn't alter the recent hiring trend, and job creation continued to lose momentum across most sectors.Private firms like ADP aren't necessarily trying to position themselves as leading indicators of BLS payrolls, but investors judge them in part by how closely they match up. Revelio Labs, which draws from over 100 million US job profiles that mirror the national workforce and cover two-thirds of all employed individuals, reported employers added about 60,000 jobs last month.READ MORE: Mortgage firms add staff as rate cuts look likelyEconomists don't forecast Revelio's number, but they do for the government's measure, which has a median estimate of 53,000 jobs added. The workforce intelligence firm said its model predicts the BLS metric would have reported 38,000 new jobs in September."Taken together, the evidence points to a labor market that is still expanding but at stall speed," Revelio said in its report. "For now, the labor market looks steady but fragile."Meantime, employment at manufacturers has contracted in all but three months since the start of 2023, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Its gauge among service providers is due later Friday."Fundamentals like restrictive policy rates, tariff costs weighing on margins, government funding and job cuts, and softer demand due to slowing immigration would imply even further pullback in hiring this year," Citigroup Inc. economist Veronica Clark said in a note.Data from Homebase, which provides workforce management software to smaller businesses, suggest a "decent gain" of around 150,000 in September payrolls, Bloomberg Economics said in a note Thursday.Job OpeningsJob openings peaked in 2022 and steadily declined since then until stabilizing in the past year. The BLS put out its latest metric on Tuesday before the shutdown, which showed vacancies were little changed in August while hiring was subdued, suggesting gradually ebbing demand for workers.While government data is held with the highest regard, the job openings survey is often criticized for its low response rate and sometimes sizable revisions. A separate index by job-posting site Indeed, which is reported on a daily basis, showed openings were little changed in August and fell more markedly in September."The job market has been frozen for close to a year now and it appears to be getting worse for job seekers," Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said in a note to clients. "Americans feel stuck in this economy."Sentiment metrics show as much — the New York Fed's outlook for job seekers hit a record low in August, while consumers surveyed by The Conference Board were similarly pessimistic about job prospects in September. Employee confidence, as measured by the recruiting-site Glassdoor, rebounded modestly last month, but is still well below its 2022 peak.Unemployment, LayoffsThe good thing about the current labor market is that tepid hiring hasn't yet translated to more firing. The national unemployment rate was expected to hold at 4.3% last month, an increase from the start of the year but still historically low.The Chicago Fed's real-time jobless rate forecast, which relies in part on BLS data, produced a similar number. While touting the metric, the institution's president, Austan Goolsbee, said Wednesday "it's problematic" for policymakers to not have official statistics during the shutdown.Employers announced fewer job cuts while dialing back hiring plans as well to the weakest for any September since 2011, according to data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.Wage GrowthMeantime, wage growth continues to chug along, and BLS data show it's been outpacing inflation on average since mid-2023, but recently by not as much. ADP's report showed a continued easing in pay gains for workers who changed jobs, while it was little changed for those who stayed put.Revelio's figures painted a bleaker wage picture. The firm's data showed salaries from new job postings declined 0.3% in September from the prior month, contracting for the first time since March.