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Homebuyer activity climbs despite minor rate uptick

2025-11-13T18:22:57+00:00

Mortgage rates rose by 2 basis points this week, but did not impact home purchase activity during the period, Freddie Mac said."Rates for the 30-year and the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage essentially remained flat this week, but we did see purchase activity increase, which is encouraging," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist.Right now, rates for both products as tracked by the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey are about 0.5 percentage points lower than they were at 52 weeks ago.The 30-year FRM averaged 6.24% on Nov. 13, up from last week when it was at 6.22%. A year ago at this time, these loans were at 6.78%.Meanwhile, the 15-year FRM ended the period lower, at 5.49%, down from the week of Nov. 6, when it was 5.5%. It was also lower than the same week last year, when the 15-year averaged 5.99%."While these movements are modest, they reflect a broader pattern we've seen recently with rates hovering in a relatively tight range after months of more dramatic swings," said One Real Mortgage CEO Samir Dedhia in a statement. "Mortgage rates have settled near their lowest levels since October 2024, creating more stability for both homebuyers and homeowners."Mortgage application activity this past weekKhater's comments were similar to a Thursday morning statement from the Mortgage Bankers Association's President and CEO Bob Broeksmit regarding the previous day's release of its Weekly Application Survey."Mortgage applications rebounded last week, despite mortgage rates increasing," Broeksmit said. "Homebuyers are taking advantage of increased housing inventory and slower home-price growth, leading to a 6% jump in purchase applications and the strongest start to November since 2022, on an unadjusted basis."Its purchase index rose 6% seasonally adjusted, 5% unadjusted, countering a 3% week-to-week drop off in refinance volume.The conforming mortgage rate as tracked by the MBA for the week ended Nov. 7 was 6.34%, a gain of 3 basis points from the previous period.How did the 10-year Treasury move these past seven daysThis week's PMMS report followed a roller coaster seven-day stretch for the 10-year Treasury yield, which is driven by investor sentiment over headlines like the federal government shutdown.On Nov. 5, the 10-year closed at 4.16% but fell to 4.09% the following day. On Nov. 10, after the Senate came to a deal on the budget extender, the yield ended the day at 4.11%, rising by 1 basis point the following day before dropping back down to 4.07% before the House vote on Wednesday.But by Thursday morning at 11 a.m. eastern, it was back up to 4.11%.Mortgage rates as tracked by the Optimal Blue product and pricing engine are lower as of Nov. 12 versus seven days prior. The 30-year FRM is at 6.18% versus 6.25% on Nov. 5, while the 15-year dropped to 5.51% from 5.54%.The shutdown's effect on mortgage ratesAfter the initial rise in mortgage rates following the October Federal Open Markets Committee meeting and Chairman Jerome Powell's comments about a December cut not being a certainty, they have largely moved sideways, commented Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow Home Loans in a Wednesday evening commentary.The statement came out prior to the House vote and Pres. Trump signing the budget extender, but in anticipation of those events Ng commented "the market may need to reassess its outlook on the labor market and inflation as government data resumes, which could lead to renewed volatility in interest rates."Consumers did see "modest" relief in mortgage rates in September and October and it encouraged buyers and sellers to "re-engage, leading to stronger than expected housing activity for the season," Ng said. But affordability concerns, as seen by the latest ideas thrown out by the Trump Administration like assumable mortgages and a 50-year term, are a "significant constraint" on the market, as prices remain well above pre-pandemic levels even with values falling in half of the major metro areas, she continued."We've seen this rhythm before: rates fall in anticipation of a Fed cut, rise slightly following the announcement due to cautious messaging, and then stabilize or trend down again as economic data unfolds," One Real's Dedhia said. "With only one Fed meeting left in 2025 and no guarantee of another cut in December, markets are watching inflation and labor data closely, and that uncertainty continues to influence bond yields and mortgage pricing."Investment banker Louis Navellier commented on this morning's rise in the Treasury market."Bets on a quarter-point Fed cut in December have fallen below 48," Naveilier wrote. "This is happening while Trump is hailing the end of QT (Quantitative Tightening) and calling for an immediate launch of QE (Quantitative Easing)."The market isn't buying that a QE program will occur right now but it may come to pass when Powell is likely replaced as Fed chair next spring, Navellier said.

Homebuyer activity climbs despite minor rate uptick2025-11-13T18:22:57+00:00

No, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Haven’t Abandoned Credit Scores

2025-11-13T18:22:42+00:00

Social media has been abuzz lately with news that Fannie Mae no longer requires a minimum credit score.Traditionally, both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac required a minimum credit score of 620 to get approved for a mortgage.So if you wanted to get a conforming loan backed by one of the two companies, you needed at least a 620 FICO score.But as of November 16th, minimum credit score requirements will no longer apply to loans submitted to Desktop Underwriter (DU), which is Fannie Mae’s automated mortgage loan underwriting system.Freddie Mac made the same change a while back and it seemed to generate far less news.Simply put, if you have a credit score below 620, you can technically get approved for a mortgage backed by Fannie or Freddie now.No Minimum Credit Score for Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac?Let’s discuss what this change actually entails.Specifically, per Fannie Mae the “the minimum representative credit score requirement of 620 for loan casefiles for one borrower and minimum average median credit score requirement of 620 for more than one borrower will be removed for new loan casefiles created on or after Nov. 16, 2025.”This means a single borrower with a sub-620 FICO score can now get approved for a loan backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.And multiple borrowers no longer need an average median credit score of 620 (blended score) to get approved.So the hard credit score cutoff is gone. There is more wiggle room and instead of a black and white view, it has become gray.However, this only applies to loans that go through automated underwriting.That’s most of the loans backed by Fannie and Freddie, as manual underwriting is less common and reserved for loans that fall outside the box.Importantly, they aren’t abandoning credit scores entirely. They are still going to run your credit with all three bureaus (eventually maybe just two) to determine your credit history and scores.From there, their automated underwriting system “will rely on its own comprehensive analysis of risk factors to determine eligibility.”Credit Scores Will Still Play a Big Role Despite No Minimum Score RequirementAs stated, they’re not ignoring credit scores or credit history now.Instead, Fannie and Freddie are taking a broader view using technology to determine how the borrower’s credit factors into the overall loan scenario.When you apply for a mortgage, there are many things the loan underwriter will look at to determine whether you’re approved or denied.This includes things like your income, assets, employment, and credit history, along with property-specific aspects like the appraised value, down payment, occupancy, etc.Going forward, there’s going to be a more complete assessment that ditches the hard credit score cutoff.The rationale is that it’s too rigid and doesn’t take into account the overall picture, thereby excluding otherwise creditworthy borrowers.After all, it’s entirely possible that a borrower could have a 615 FICO score but be much less of a credit risk than a borrower with a 760 FICO score.But to determine this, their automated system will need to look at myriad factors.They’ll take the borrower’s credit scores and history and factor in things like down payment, asset reserves, income, DTI ratio, employment, etc.Then the system will decide if the borrower can be approved, even if their credit score falls short of the classic 620 threshold.By the way, 620 FICO scores have long been considered the last stop before subprime.Anything below a 620 FICO is considered a subprime mortgage, so perhaps technically you can call these loans subprime.But How Many Sub-620 FICO Score Mortgages Will Actually Get Approved?Here’s the thing with this change though. While Fannie and Freddie are scrapping a minimum credit score, chances are most approved loans will still have a 620+ credit score.Remember, the loan still has to make it through their automated underwriting system. So you’ll need a lot of solid compensating factors if your scores are below 620.That means you’ll need things like a large down payment, lots of assets, a reasonable DTI ratio, solid employment, etc.I spoke to some loan officers that have gotten sub-620 credit score loans approved but it was always with an average median score above 620.An earlier change made by Fannie and Freddie allowed sub-620 credit scores as long as a co-borrower’s score pushed the blended score above 620.For example, a borrower with a midscore of 591 and a co-borrower with a midscore of 693 would average out to 642.This was already permitted before they got rid of the minimum credit score.Chances are most loans that get through the automated underwriting gauntlet will have a 620+ average median score.On top of that, individual mortgage companies may impose lender overlays that require a minimum credit score.Lenders are allowed to limit their own risk if they’re concerned the loans won’t perform.To summarize, this isn’t the return to Wild West underwriting, though I understand how someone who sees a dramatic headline might believe that. Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.Latest posts by Colin Robertson (see all)

No, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Haven’t Abandoned Credit Scores2025-11-13T18:22:42+00:00

Waterstone Mortgage on its structure and profitability

2025-11-13T16:22:52+00:00

Waterstone Mortgage is an independent mortgage banker which happens to be a fully owned asset of a bank, explained Jeff McGuiness, its president and CEO.It outperformed the plan submitted to its holding company, Waterstone Financial, and was profitable for all of 2024 and so far in 2025, looking primarily at its origination business and not inclusive of any servicing sales. This accounts for the difference in numbers reported in Waterstone Financial's earnings release.Several other lenders, such as UWM Holdings, use an adjusted metric when reporting results, giving a steadier view of the company's core performance.Looking at broad industry profitability data compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association bears out Waterstone's success, he said."Of those IMBs that can say that they're profitable on their pure originations, less than 5% could say that in '24, we're one of them, and less than 15% are being able to say that this year, and we are in that class as well," McGuiness said.McGuiness joined Waterstone Mortgage in November 2020, after being the chief sales officer at Embrace Home Loans, and before that, CEO of Lenders One Cooperative.Waterstone's gain on saleWaterstone Mortgage's cost to produce is at "an industry-leading level," with disciplined execution and pricing which is "competitive but also astute," McGuiness said.In the two most recent quarters, over 90% of production came from purchases, while in the first quarter, it was at 87.5%.Gain on sale was 383 basis points in the third quarter of 2024, followed by 374 basis points, 398 basis points, 384 basis points and 387 basis points over the next four periods.The MBA data for the second quarter put the total production revenue, which also includes fee income and warehouse spread besides net secondary market income, at 346 basis points versus 373 basis points in the first quarter.In the period where it had the lowest volume over the past year, the first quarter at $387.8 million, is when Waterstone recorded the highest gain.Like other IMBs, it funds loans through warehouse lines, with the primary provider being Waterstone Bank, McGuiness noted, which also gives it some more fluidity in adding products. But on the secondary side, the bank is only an outlet for one of its products, and it does have several sources where it can find the best execution with that product for the customer.Waterstone Financial is not alone in offering a unique structure that has both depository and nonbank businesses.An institution with a bank charter which was considered to be a mortgage bank rather than a depository was Republic Bancorp of Ann Arbor, Michigan. The company was acquired in 2006 by Citizens Banking of Flint, Michigan..Currently, at Cenlar, which has a savings bank charter, its primary business is subservicing. But the company has expanded to offer warehouse lines and operate a secondary market conduit.The owner of CMG Financial, Chris George, bought a bank in Madison, Wisconsin, the former Greenwoods State Bank, now Bank CMG, earlier this year.Waterstone is not a big holder of mortgage servicing rights in the first place, and what it does have has to be "market-condition-appropriate for us," which is why it is not included in how the company measures profitability, he said.How Waterstone plans to growThe role of an IMB is to offer a broad variety of products to its customers. Waterstone is one of a growing number of lenders taking a look at what traditionally has been called non-qualified mortgages and it probably will be pursuing those loans a little bit more aggressively in the rest of the year, McGuiness said.In the five years he has been in the CEO role, Waterstone has had far better success with organic growth than acquisitions."We really think that's our wheelhouse," McGuiness said. "We have the ability to attract those LOs that are a great cultural fit for us and us for them."While organic growth might seem tedious, it works for Waterstone because its retention rates are high. The overall attrition rate for loan officers relative to other mortgage banks is half the annualized level, he said.Current industry events impact on WaterstoneThe hot topic in the mortgage industry today is the use of artificial intelligence technology and it is something which Waterstone is keeping a close eye on, as its competitors are as well."Efficiency for us is the bottom line," McGuiness said. Numerous AI applications are in the market but those don't necessarily fit with a company's technology stack and thus have limited use because they don't create a seamless or pleasant experience.AI "is moving at the speed of light," he stated but it is not a people-replacer. Rather it can be a value added tool for loan officers. Even its underwriters, processors and closers can benefit from tools that make them more efficient and allow them to make better use of time."Can you enhance those individual performances as opposed to replacing those performers is where my head is at currently," McGuiness said.The government shutdown does not seem to have an end in sight. So far it has affected Waterstone's U.S. Department of Agriculture lending because it is unable to obtain the needed certifications. But other programs have not been disrupted to date, McGuiness said.

Waterstone Mortgage on its structure and profitability2025-11-13T16:22:52+00:00

Treasuries stumble as shutdown ends and traders brace for swings

2025-11-13T15:23:09+00:00

Treasuries sustained small losses as the longest government shutdown on record ended and expectations for another Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next month eroded further.Yields were higher by as much as three basis points, led by tenors more sensitive to changes in Fed policy. The odds of a December rate cut assigned by the market have slipped amid cautious commentary by several central bank officials. Speaking as US markets closed on Wednesday, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she favored holding rates steady "for some time."The five-year tenor led the selloff even as investors face the last of this week's three longer-term Treasury debt auctions, a 30-year bond sale at 1 p.m. New York time. Its yield in pre-auction trading was about two basis points higher on the day at around 4.68%. The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell, its sixth decline in the past seven days.READ MORE: Fed Gov. Miran has a view on the economy. Is it persuasive?While Treasury market reaction to the end of the shutdown — which began Oct. 1 and stopped the flow of most official economic statistics — was limited, measures of volatility pointed to the potential for sharp swings in coming days as it resumes, potentially altering expectations for what the Fed will do."US Treasury investors are bracing for more volatility now that the government will start releasing more data again," said Michiel Tukker, senior European rates strategist at ING Groep NV in a client note. He added that any new inflation and jobs data will be able to push around the front end of the curve given markets have not fully settled on the Fed's next steps. The ICE BofA MOVE Index, a gauge of expected bond-market volatility, has rebounded to a one-month high after recently reaching a four-year low.Investors in the nearly $30 trillion Treasury market have been relying on private data in the absence of official numbers, with the latest figures from ADP Research signaling a slowing US jobs market. Meanwhile, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt Wednesday said the landmark employment report and consumer price index for October are unlikely to be released.READ MORE: December Fed rate cut still on the table for most economistsOver the course of the shutdown, Treasuries have been stuck in a holding pattern, with yields on 10-year notes fluctuating around the 4% level. A Bloomberg index of Treasuries has returned 0.4% over the span, adding to the market's best year since 2020. In the days leading up to the re-opening, however, traders piled into Treasury options targeting a drop in the 10-year yield below 4%, betting the cascade of data will show the economy is weakening. "Yields are stuck in a relatively narrow range until there is greater clarity on the direction of the real economy and the FOMC's bias ahead of the December 10th rate decision," Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets wrote in a note Wednesday. "The mixed private data releases have left us more concerned about the downside for the labor market than anything else."

Treasuries stumble as shutdown ends and traders brace for swings2025-11-13T15:23:09+00:00

Credit washing rose nearly 700% over 2 years: Transunion

2025-11-13T15:23:14+00:00

While there are legitimate means to allow consumers to boost their credit scores, others – not just individuals but also industrial or institutional actors – engage in a practice known as credit washing.The practice takes advantage of something people are allowed to do: challenge erroneous information on their credit reports.But in credit washing, the information is accurate but is challenged anyway, taking advantage of the Fair Credit Reporting Act's requirement to investigate and correct errors. While that investigation is taking place, the information is removed from the credit report, boosting the borrower's score.Data from Transunion covering July found a record high in charged-off accounts due to consumer-initiated disputes. Over a two-year period, these have grown by 668%, the credit bureau said. By comparison, lender-initiated charge-offs over the past three years increased by 150%.Why have credit washing activities increasedWhile a cottage industry has sprung up around credit washing and certain aspects of the practice, it is now growing more and has become very formalized, said Steve Yin, global head of fraud at Transunion.These "nefarious" activities, driven by consumer, lender, credit repair and debt settlement practices, differ from people resolving legitimate disputes on their credit reports, he noted. "They're disputing accurate information with the intent, ultimately we can make that leap of faith, to manipulate their credit access and credit scores," Yin said.Where they do know about this, the government has acted.Back in 2022, the Federal Trade Commission went after Alex Miller Credit Repair, later renamed Turbo Solutions, for credit washing practices; at the time Alexander Miller consented to a permanent injunction.In this case, besides advertising it could remove all negative items, Miller's companies filed fake identity theft reports with the government.This past March, the government moved for and received summary judgement regarding Turbo and Miller from the reopened legal proceedings.U.S. District Court Judge Andrew Hanen ordered the defendants to pay $10 million in civil penalties and $9.358 million in consumer redress.The Miller case started five years after a 2017 FTC policy change which made it easier in theory for ID theft victims to produce policy reports or other records and created the opening for credit washing to take hold, fraud experts said at the time.Recent statistics on credit washingIn Transunion's new analysis of consumer initiated customer disputes, it found that roughly 5% had charged-off accounts this year for "atypical reasons," which erased $10 billion in debt from their records.The company is bringing to market the Transunion Credit Washing Solution, which consists of three indicators: a credit washing default score; algorithms that look for tradeline washing attributes; and algorithms that calculate inquiry changes across four lines of business and six time periods.The tools create "a yellow flag" for lenders to look at someone applying for credit like a mortgage or home equity product to take a second look at the applicant, Yin said. It is not an outright rejection of the file.In the normal course of business, the disputed item would be blind to the lender and artificially increase the applicant's credit score. Even if the information were to be restored, it would be at least 30 days to as long as 90 days the score would be higher.The tie between credit washing and synthetic IDsA related problem is the creation of synthetic identities, which use a combination of real, stolen and fake information for people to apply for credit."The interesting thing about credit washing is that there is an interplay with synthetic identities as well," Yin added. So Transunion recently introduced a new synthetic identity score as well.In October, it released data on credit washers in auto loans. The 3.4% charge off rate for supposed super prime (Vantagescore of 781 or higher) borrowers who credit washed, was similar to the typical consumer in the near prime category (Vantagescore between 601 and 660), Transunion said."Credit washing is a silent disruptor in the lending space," said Satyan Merchant, senior vice president, auto and mortgage business leader, in the press release. "It makes it harder than ever for lenders to distinguish between genuine and manipulated profiles."What's most concerning is that this behavior is increasingly prevalent among consumers in lower-risk credit tiers, where lenders typically expect better credit performance," Merchant continued.Data released in August by Juniper Research, based in Hampshire, U.K., predicts a 153% worldwide increase in fraud to $58.6 billion in 2030 from $23 billion in 2025. This is a result of the growth of synthetic identity fraud.Point Predictive operates a consortium of more than 650 lenders, banks, fintechs and dealer groups."Our consortium represents more than just shared data — it's the engine driving unprecedented automation in lending," said Tim Grace, CEO of Point Predictive, in a May press release. "By analyzing patterns across billions of data points, we've enabled lenders to move from manual stipulation of documentation requests to streamlined, intelligent workflows that approve legitimate borrowers quickly while flagging the small percentage of applications that deserve scrutiny."

Credit washing rose nearly 700% over 2 years: Transunion2025-11-13T15:23:14+00:00

Fed Gov. Miran has a view on the economy. Is it persuasive?

2025-11-13T15:23:18+00:00

Jeremy Erickson/Bloomberg Key insight: Economists see validity in Fed Gov. Miran's argument that shelter inflation is coming down, but note the impact to overall inflation may vary in significance. Expert quote: "I don't think that rental disinflation is really going to be enough of a reason on its own to say 'mission accomplished on inflation.' I think we still have a lot of inflation signals to worry about." — Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin.What's at stake: Fed Gov. Miran has been pushing for the central bank to be more "forward-looking" when it comes to setting monetary policy, specifically arguing that inflation will come down in the near-future, which warrants cuts to short-term interest rates.Since joining the Federal Reserve Board in September, Fed Gov. Stephen Miran has been pitching an alternative reading of the state of the economy and remedy for what ails it: much lower interest rates. This puts him at odds with Chair Jerome Powell as well as most of his fellow central-bank governors.Miran has argued in myriad speeches, appearances and interviews over the last eight weeks that inflation is on a downward trajectory, driven in part by disinflation in the housing market. In a number of his appearances, Miran has pointed to two key factors contributing to the trend: declining rental costs and Trump-era immigration policies. The claims, however, have left economists skeptical.While some agree that rental and housing costs are showing signs of gradual easing and may lead to disinflation in the long-term, Miran's argument that reduced immigration will further cool housing inflation has faced strong pushback.Economists also note that changes in the housing sector are unlikely to drive a sharp drop in overall inflation. Tariffs, they say, remain a more immediate concern for price pressures.Miran has repeatedly emphasized that the central bank should take a "forward-looking" approach to monetary policy — one that accounts for factors likely to affect its dual mandate over the longer term.The Fed governor, appointed by President Trump and on a leave of absence from his prior post as Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, argues that official inflation data often lags behind real-time market trends, suggesting that the government may be too slow to react to fast-moving developments in the market. One trend Miran said the Fed is overlooking is the deflationary pressure from declining immigration and the deportation of immigrants already living in the U.S. He said the shift eases pressure on housing prices and contributes to lower rents, which make up a significant portion of consumer spending and have long been a stubborn driver of inflation.In an appearance at University of Cambridge in mid-November, Miran admitted that his view regarding housing disinflation and its impact could be flawed."I'm always looking for where I could be wrong," he said. "I've identified this as if I'm going to be wrong...it's probably this. I'm very focused on observing what's happening in the housing markets, and thus far, I don't see anything that tells me that I'm wrong in the U.S." Disinflation in the housing spaceEconomists say there are signs that both the multi‑ and single‑family housing markets are cooling, though the effect on overall inflation will likely be modest.Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, said that on a national level, asking rents "are flat to declining," but he stressed the shift will appear in the economy "over time.""There are certainly markets where because of an oversupply in the apartment sector, you're seeing rents decline in a more noticeable way," Fratantoni said. "We are also seeing the rate of home price growth slow. Our own forecast actually has [home price growth] falling…and getting negative as we go into 2026 and 2027." Fratantoni said he agrees "with the overall premise" that a reduction in housing costs, whether it be homeownership or rent, will put some downward pressure on inflation measures over a multi-year period, but added that he expects inflation to spike in the near-term."The only place where we're seeing a little bit differently from Governor Miran is that I think we're going to see inflation pick up over the next six months or so before these disinflationary factors really begin to weigh on the top line number," he added.Meanwhile, Patrick Harker, former Philadelphia Fed president, brushed off the importance of housing disinflation and its impact on the economy, noting "it's an argument," but not one he adheres to.Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, agreed that there is a lag in how rents are measured and said it is reasonable to anticipate that the Federal Reserve's measure of inflation will fall as rents continue to decline.However, Fairweather cautioned that lower rent costs won't necessarily brighten the overall inflation picture."Ironically, even if people aren't spending as much money on rent, they might end up spending more money on other items, which could lead to inflation," she said. "I don't think that rental disinflation is really going to be enough of a reason on its own to say 'mission accomplished on inflation.' I think we still have a lot of inflation signals to worry about." Over the past year, asking rents have fluctuated but remain well below pandemic levels, when the median asking rent jumped as much as 18 percent before later falling by up to 4 percent, per data from Redfin.Impact of immigration policiesMiran in a speech at the Economic Club of New York in September, suggested that "net zero immigration going forward would imply 1 point lower rent inflation per year." Some economists interviewed don't see validity in these claims."I think the claims are madness," said Rodney Ramcharan, professor of finance and business economics at University of Southern California and a former Fed economist."This is based on a middle school level of economics," said Exequiel "Zeke" Hernandez, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business.Despite signs appearing that overtime rental costs will level off, most economists were skeptical that current border policies will play a noticeable role in bringing down inflation, with some even saying immigration policies could have the opposite effect."If rents are coming down, they're coming down because the housing market is weakening," Ramcharan said. "You have to trade off that immigration keeps our wages low, so if you don't let folks come in, you're going to push up wages."Hernandez echoed similar sentiments, noting that reductions in net migration can cause economic depressions in local communities and create inflationary pressure due to the absence of inexpensive labor."It seems to be true that if you remove people, there's going to be fewer people demanding that housing, and the price of that housing should go down, in theory," Hernandez said. "The problem is that when you remove people, you're also depressing the economy, so it's a demand shock. There's fewer people buying stuff and it's the equivalent of creating a mini depression in the local economy."Even so, Fratantoni does see some validity to this argument, noting that if there is a slower immigration environment there will be a drop in demand in the rental market."That's going to show up differently in different parts of the country where new immigrants are a larger or smaller part of rental demand, but it is going to be contributing to some of this disinflation coming from the housing sector," he said.The tariffs in the roomMost economists interviewed agreed that even if the housing sector experiences disinflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve should be more concerned with how President Trump's tariff policies will affect inflation in the near term.Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist at U.S. Bank, said that inflation is starting to drift further away from the 2 percent target of the Fed, which is something the central bank should keep an eye on."I am concerned about the inflation readings around 3 percent," she said. "Even if tariffs are a one-off, meaning it goes up and then that's a one time deal, it still has a feed through effect that lasts a while."So far, companies have absorbed most of the tariffs on certain products. Recent data from Goldman Sachs shows firms took on about 51 percent of the costs. But Fratantoni warns that this will soon come to an end, which will "overwhelm" any potential drop in the shelter component of the Consumer Price Index."I agree with the general sense that the tariff impact is going to be relatively short-lived, but I just don't think we've seen it yet, because I think businesses have been absorbing much of that cost, and they're now saying they can't do it much longer," Fratantoni said. John Heltman contributed to this report.

Fed Gov. Miran has a view on the economy. Is it persuasive?2025-11-13T15:23:18+00:00

Foreclosures climb for eighth straight month

2025-11-13T05:22:51+00:00

Foreclosures increased for the eighth consecutive month in October, as high costs continue to push activity toward pre-pandemic levels.Total foreclosures in the United States eclipsed 36,000 last month, up 3% from September and 19% from the same time a year ago, according to ATTOM's latest foreclosure market report."Even with these increases, activity remains well below historic highs," ATTOM CEO Rob Barber said in a press release Wednesday. "The current trend appears to reflect a gradual normalization in foreclosure volumes as market conditions adjust and some homeowners continue to navigate higher housing and borrowing costs."Foreclosure processes began on 25,129 homes last month, a 6% increase from September and a 20% increase from October of last year. Repossessions through completed foreclosures also rose by 2% month over month and 32% year over year to 3,872 in October.On a quarterly basis, more than 100,000 properties had a foreclosure filed from July through September, up less than a percent. If the fourth quarter maintains the pace October set, it will see the most foreclosures of any quarter this year.Which states saw the most foreclosures?One in every 3,871 housing units nationwide filled for a foreclosure last month, with Florida (one in every 1,829), South Carolina (one in every 1,982), Illinois (one in every 2,570), Delaware (on in every 2,710) and Nevada (one in every 2,747) posting the worst foreclosure rates among all states.Cities in Florida had the worst foreclosure rates among metro areas with populations of a million or more, led by Tampa (one in every 1,373), which saw a temporary spike due to the resumption of data collection in Hillsborough County that added backlogged records and is expected to normalize in November. Jacksonville and Orlando had the second and third worst rates.States with the largest populations unsurprisingly had the greatest number of foreclosure starts in October, as Florida again led the way with 4,136, followed by Texas with 3,080 and California with 2,685.Major metro areas with the greatest year-over-year declines included Milwaukee (from 33 foreclosure starts to 15), Indianapolis (from 252 to 142) and Washington (308 to 239).The largest states also had the most repossessions. Texas totaled 358 repossessions, while California and Florida racked up 243 and 205, respectively. Major metro areas were in line, led by Chicago with 122, and followed by Atlanta (117), New York (111), Houston (74) and Riverside, California (72).

Foreclosures climb for eighth straight month2025-11-13T05:22:51+00:00

Amerisave hit with new TCPA class action suit

2025-11-12T22:22:50+00:00

Amerisave Mortgage faces a new class action lawsuit that alleges it violated the Telephone Consumer Protection Act after it attempted to contact an individual on the Do Not Call registry.  In documents filed in federal court in the Northern District of Georgia late last month, attorneys for plaintiff Erin Wilson noted she had listed her phone number on the national Do Not Call registry in 2024. In October 2025, Wilson received two telemarketing calls on consecutive days from agents associated with Amerisave. Upon answering the second call, the Amerisave representative informed her they were following up on an online quote requested by her, although Wilson claimed she never made any such query."Because telemarketing campaigns typically use technology capable of generating thousands of similar calls per day, plaintiff sues on behalf of a proposed nationwide class of other persons who received similar calls," the documents said. In addition to violations of the TCPA, Wilson is also claiming Amerisave failed to comply with terms of the Georgia Telephone Solicitations Act that aim to protect state consumers from "unwanted, harassing and intrusive sales calls," according to the suit.Wilson seeks to represent a class comprising individuals on the DNC registry who received more than one unsolicited call from Amerisave in a 12-month period since late 2022. The total members in the class could reach into the thousands, her attorneys added. Their client and all members of the class "have been harmed by the acts of the defendant because their privacy has been violated and they were subjected to annoying and harassing calls that constitute a nuisance," the lawsuit noted.Amerisave did not respond to an inquiry from National Mortgage News prior to publication. Wilson is seeking between $500 and $1,500 in damages on behalf of all class members for each TCPA call violation, according to the court filing. The lawsuit also aims to collect $1,000 for each infraction of Georgia's state regulation. Do Not Call litigation continuesThe lawsuit against Atlanta-based Amerisave is the latest example of recent scrutiny poured on lenders to comply with the Do Not Call rule and also highlights the willingness of attorneys and consumers to pursue cases after any alleged infractions. In September, a South Carolina homeowner filed a similar class action suit against Freedom Mortgage for unsolicited calls regarding a possible home equity loan. The defendant in that case also claimed she had never been a Freedom customer nor contacted the lender. She also said she listed her number on the Do Not Call registry in 2017.Over the past year, an Oregon resident filed several suits after receiving unwanted texts, putting himself at the center of TCPA class action cases against a host of companies across different industries. Caught in his web of litigation were home lending and real estate enterprises, Fairway Independent Mortgage, Mr. Cooper and Zillow.   In 2020, Amerisave agreed to a settlement in another class action suit that accused it of noncompliance with the TCPA. In that case, the lender agreed to pay $6.3 million to consumers who received calls or texts from the company over an 18-month period from 2018 to 2019. Approximately 2.3 million consumers were included in that class. 

Amerisave hit with new TCPA class action suit2025-11-12T22:22:50+00:00

CFPB to gut indirect discrimination in civil rights rule

2025-11-12T22:22:53+00:00

Al Drago/Bloomberg What's at Stake: The bureau acknowledges that the elderly, minorities and people with low incomes may be harmed by the changes.Expert Quote: The proposed rule "will effectively invite a return to redlining and exclusion," said Jesse Van Tol, president and CEO of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition.Key Insight: The CFPB claims the statutory language of ECOA makes no reference to disparate-impact claims and should be eliminated.The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau wants to eliminate protections against indirect discrimination from the Equal Credit Opportunity Act of 1974.On Thursday, the CFPB expects to publish a proposal in the Federal Register that builds on the Trump administration's executive order in April seeking to eliminate the legal framework known as "disparate impact." The public will have 30 days to comment.The CFPB's 73-page proposal, signed by acting CFPB Director Russell Vought, would change the language in Regulation B to state that the Equal Credit Opportunity Act "does not authorize disparate impact claims."Disparate impact has been a tool used to target lenders that engage in discriminatory practices or redlining in mortgages and other markets. It is based on a 1971 Supreme Court ruling, Griggs v. Duke Power Co., that found facially neutral policies or practices can be deemed discriminatory if they are found to have a disproportionately negative impact on protected groups — even where there is no proof of intentional discrimination. President Trump issued an executive order in April aimed at eliminating disparate impact liability in federal programs "to the maximum degree possible." The order, titled "Ending Illegal Discrimination and Restoring Merit-Based Opportunity," states, in part, that the federal government "is charged with enforcing our civil-rights laws. The purpose of this order is to ensure that it does so by ending illegal preferences and discrimination."The CFPB proposal and the executive order are significant because they impact how federal agencies enforce civil rights laws.The CFPB said in its proposal that: "The text of ECOA does not state that disparate-impact claims are cognizable under ECOA, nor does it contain effects-based language of the type that has been found in other statutes to invoke disparate-impact liability." The proposal would go further by putting restrictions for special purpose credit programs, created by for-profit banks and lenders, that seek to address historical inequality.And the plan would amend the law's so-called "discouragement provision," that prohibits creditors from discouraging any current or prospective credit applicants from applying for credit through statements, advertising or other actions.The Trump administration also wants to clarify that ECOA prohibits statements of intent to discriminate but "is not triggered merely by negative consumer impressions."The CFPB acknowledged that the elderly, minorities and people with low incomes may be harmed by the changes in legal protections."Some consumers may be more likely to be denied credit or to pay higher prices without effects-based legal protection," the bureau said. "Removing such liability could potentially have a negative impact on some consumers. Consumers who are adversely affected by neutral policies would lose legal options and opportunities for redress."The proposal is part of the Trump administration's broad attack on civil rights, said Stephen Hayes, co-managing partner at the law firm Relman Colfax."The proposal is legally and factually flawed," Hayes said. "Many companies value the doctrine because it provides a framework to explore whether their systems can be modified to increase opportunities for new consumers."Jesse Van Tol, president and CEO of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, called the plan "an outright assault on civil rights in lending.""By gutting disparate impact analysis and banning race- or gender-based Special Purpose Credit Programs, this rule will effectively invite a return to redlining and exclusion," Van Tol said.In a strange twist, the bureau claims that disparate impact liability would allow lenders to discriminate against non-protected classes."Creditors may believe that they are required not only to consider the impact of facially neutral policies and procedures on protected classes, but to adjust those policies with the goal of achieving particular protected class outcomes, in order to avoid potential disparate-impact claims," the proposal states. "This may even involve policy changes that disadvantage certain protected classes in an effort to reduce the disadvantages for others. That the application of disparate-impact liability may promote, rather than prohibit, such intentional protected class discrimination further indicates that interpreting ECOA as not permitting disparate-impact claims is the most appropriate reading of the statute."The CFPB will likely be sued if the final rule is issued along the lines of the proposal, Hayes said. In the first Trump administration, CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger issued a request for information seeking comment related to disparate impact, prospective applicants, and special purpose credit programs, among other issues, but never made any changes to ECOA. The CFPB reviewed roughly 35 comment letters in 2020 and claims to have obtained "pertinent information in the course of carrying out its supervisory and enforcement responsibilities," the proposal states.

CFPB to gut indirect discrimination in civil rights rule2025-11-12T22:22:53+00:00

Portable Mortgages Don’t Work in the United States

2025-11-12T19:22:45+00:00

Now that the 50-year mortgage has been thoroughly panned and debunked as a viable affordability solution, we’re on to the next silly idea.What is it? Well, “portable mortgages” of course, where you can take your home loan with you from property to property.They actually exist, but not in this country. Only in Canada and the United Kingdom will you find them.And even then, I wonder how many folks actually use them there. They just aren’t that practical.Here in the United States, they would likely be impossible.How a Portable Mortgage WorksYou take your existing mortgage with you to the replacement propertyGet to enjoy the same interest rate and loan term on new propertyMust sell old home and buy a home in a short window of time (and re-qualify)The ported mortgage may require a down payment or second mortgage for financing to workUnlike an assumable mortgage, which a home seller can transfer to a buyer, a portable mortgage is something you can take with you to the next property.So if you’re an existing homeowner looking to sell, you can port your mortgage over to the replacement property when you sell.However, like an assumable mortgage, there will still likely be a gap between the outstanding loan balance and purchase price.For example, if your current loan balance is $300,000 and you want to buy a home for $400,000, you could port the mortgage over to the new property.That would leave a shortfall of $100,000, which would need to be accounted for either by making a down payment or taking out a second mortgage.While that all sounds workable, the issue with portable mortgages in the United States is the fact that we rely upon long-term fixed-rate debt.The most common home loan type in the U.S. is the 30-year fixed. This means a homeowner could effectively take out one mortgage per adult lifetime.Had they taken out a 2% 30-year fixed a few years, they could keep it for life and apply it to new properties.Yes, they’d maybe have a shortfall and require down payment funds or a second mortgage, but they’d generally never need another mortgage again.Not sure banks and mortgage lenders would love that idea. They do appreciate a little volume.Canada and the UK Don’t Have 30-Year Fixed MortgagesMeanwhile, in places like Canada and Britain where portable mortgages are permitted, they rely upon variable-rate debt and so-called fixed mortgages that only last 3-5 years.Yes, they are technically fixed, but only during the first few years before the borrower must either pay it off, renew it, or renegotiate it.It’s a lot different than our actual fixed-rate mortgages that are fixed for the entire loan term, typically 30 years.The Canadian fixed mortgages often last 3-5 years but feature a 25-year amortization, meaning it’s not really fixed.It kind of reminds me more of our hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages, such as the 5/6 ARM or 7/6 ARM.You have to act after the initial 3-5 years to lock in a new rate or switch products or pay the thing off.The mortgages in the UK and Canada also feature prepayment penalties and mortgage exit fees, which is completely different than here.As such, lenders are happy to offer portable mortgages to these homeowners because they’re not nearly as valuable.If anything, it sounds like the borrower kind of has to keep the mortgage to avoid being penalized.The thought that we could just take our super low-rate mortgage from property to property is actually ludicrous.And even if it was somehow permitted, it wouldn’t be retroactive so you’d be looking at being able to keep a 6-7% mortgage rate.In addition, mortgage rates would likely be higher all else equal if portability was built into the rate.The Housing Market Simply Needs Time to Correct, Not More GimmicksAfter the 50-year mortgage debacle, which apparently embarrassed Trump and the White House, we’ve quickly jumped to another quick fix.Today, FHFA Director Bill Pulte said on X, “We are actively evaluating portable mortgages.”It’s unclear why he keeps trying to find a silver bullet when it’s clear the housing market simply needs time.We aren’t going to fix things overnight. We have millions of homeowners with ultra-low fixed-rate mortgages that aren’t leaving.This lock-in effect won’t be lifted by portable mortgages. They just aren’t viable, and as I said, they won’t be applied retroactively.The assumable mortgage has some promise, and companies like Roam are making them more accessible, but even then it’s a drop in the bucket.Nobody wants to hear the truth, but the truth is it’s just going to take time for wages to catch up to home prices.It’ll be a slog, though we’ve already seen mortgage rates drift down from 8% to just above 6%, and there’s a chance they could make their way into the 5s and beyond soon.That will help boost affordability, especially if home prices remain flat and/or even fall some in certain metros.It’s not some neatly packaged solution we can present to the American public, but it’s the reality we face today.(photo: Alan Levine) Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.Latest posts by Colin Robertson (see all)

Portable Mortgages Don’t Work in the United States2025-11-12T19:22:45+00:00
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