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Treasuries slumped after stronger-than-expected US job and wage growth prompted traders to trim bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. The Friday selloff lifted yields across maturities by as much as 10 basis points, led by shorter-dated tenors more sensitive to Fed rate changes. The benchmark 10-year note's rate rose eight basis points to 4.47%, and yields across the spectrum once again exceeded 4%. READ MORE: Mortgage rates move lower for first time in four weeksInterest-rate swaps showed traders now see a roughly 70% chance of a quarter-point rate cut by September, compared with a probability of about 90% on Thursday. Fewer than two rate cuts are fully priced in for the year."You are seeing a little bit of the bond market reaction here of pricing out a bit of the expectations in terms of the Fed," Jeffrey Rosenberg, portfolio manager at BlackRock Inc., said on Bloomberg Television. "The big takeaway is a slowing-but-still strong labor market." Nonfarm payrolls increased 139,000 last month after a combined 95,000 downward revisions to the prior two months. The median forecast of economists was for an increase of 126,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%, while hourly wages picked up.READ MORE: Spring housing outlook: not all bad newsSteep gains for US equities also curbed demand for bonds. The S&P 500 and other major benchmarks rose more than 1%. Following the job report, President Donald Trump urged the Fed to cut rates by a full point, intensifying his pressure campaign against Chair Jerome Powell. Fed policymakers have said they are waiting for more data before lowering rates as they balance the risks of still elevated inflation and a potential economic slowdown. Officials have said it could take months to gain clarity on the economic impacts of sweeping policy changes, particularly around trade. Consumer price index data for May, scheduled to be released June 11, is expected to slow acceleration, according to the median economist estimates in a Bloomberg survey. The overall rate is seen rising to 2.5% from 2.3%, the core rate to 2.9% from 2.8%.Fed officials traditionally observe a communications blackout beginning the second Saturday before a meeting, a period that begins June 7. Also ahead next week are Treasury auctions of three- and 10-year notes and 30-year bonds, whose expected yields are higher as a result of Friday's selloff. This week's data has painted a mixed picture of the job market amid the uncertainties of the Trump administration's tariff wars. ADP private-sector payrolls showed hiring decelerated in May to the slowest pace in two years, while job openings unexpectedly rose in April."There's nothing here to change the status quo for the Fed," said Ed Al-Hussainy, a rates strategist at Columbia Threadneedle Investment, referring to Friday's report. "Some downside bets on Fed cuts this summer will likely come out."Wall Street views on how much Fed easing is likely to occur this year range from none to as much as 100 basis points. The most common forecast among major banks is for just one cut, in either September or December.Traders are still wagering on policymakers keeping rates on hold at their June 17-18 gathering, and seeing only 10% of a chance for a move in July. "The jobs number takes June and July off the table," said Kevin Flanagan, head of fixed income strategy at WisdomTree. "We continue to play this waiting game and with no visible slowing in jobs, the market now turns to focusing on whether the disinflation trend continues with CPI next week."In the currency market, a Bloomberg gauge of the dollar rose to the day's high after the release of the report, then moderated gains. The measure remains on course for a 0.4% decline on the week, with currency markets increasingly focusing on economic data.

A group of Democratic senators, including Elizabeth Warren and Chuck Schumer, asked the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency to pause any efforts to privatize mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.President Donald Trump said on social media last month that he's considering a public stock offering for the two government-backed enterprises, triggering speculation that the administration could seek to end government ownership of the two companies. FHFA director William Pulte has confirmed the administration is studying ways to carry out a public offering for the companies. READ MORE: FHFA's Pulte defers to a higher authority on conservatorshipIn a letter sent Thursday, 14 senators asked Pulte, whose agency regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to wait on any moves until he has briefed Congress. The letter says that a rushed process could push mortgage rates higher and benefit wealthy investors at the expense of ordinary homeowners. "Hasty and poorly planned changes to the Enterprises could dramatically increase costs for families seeking to purchase a home, rewarding President Trump's billionaire campaign contributors while making the housing crisis even worse," the senators wrote. The FHFA did not respond to a request for comment. The US government seized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2008 as the mortgage market imploded, putting the companies under a form of government control known as conservatorship. The two companies guarantee trillions of dollars of US mortgages, for houses and apartment buildings.Prominent investor and Trump ally Bill Ackman has advocated on social media for an end to government conservatorship as part of a plan that involves public stock offerings for Fannie and Freddie. Critics say the plan would result in Ackman reaping enormous gains from his own Fannie Mae and Freddie holdings and potentially lead to higher mortgage rates. There is no public evidence that Trump or Pulte are pursuing Ackman's plan and members of the administration have given signs they may look at pursuing a public offering in a way that wouldn't fully privatize the companies. In their letter, the senators asked Pulte if he had met with Ackman or any other hedge funds that own significant shares in Fannie and Freddie. Pulte as well as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have each said that while plans are preliminary, the government will not do anything that risks pushing mortgage rates higher. Mortgage rates are near their highest level in decades, and administration officials have signaled concern that the rising cost of homeownership will damage Trump's popularity. 

May's slightly stronger than anticipated employment data dampened lenders' hopes for further downward pressure on rates in the immediate future, as they added incrementally to payrolls for the spring homebuying season.U.S. employers overall added 139,000 jobs last month, above consensus expectations for around 130,000. Unemployment remained stable at 4.2%. Nonbank mortgage employment, which is reported with more of a lag, rose to 264,700 in April from 264,000 in March. "These data lined up well with market expectations and are likely to keep the Fed on hold for the next meeting or two," said Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, in a press release commenting on the Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The latest numbers leave lenders waiting for a development that could convince Federal Reserve officials to lower rates. They also suggest housing finance firms will remain slow to hire amid shifting tariff policy and inflation that make the economy's future direction tough to gauge."The labor market's resilience puts the Fed in a difficult spot: inflation pressures remain sticky, and the cooling many expected simply hasn't materialized in the data that matters most," said Nigel Green, CEO of advisory firm and asset manager DeVere Group, in an emailed statement.Other signs of slowing mean rate cut still possible laterHowever, some aspects of the latest round of employment statistics do point to gradual weakening in the economy, according to Fratantoni."The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% but the participation rate dropped, indicating that fewer individuals without a job are actively looking for work. All in, the job market is softening, but not quickly," he said. The BLS employment numbers Friday also followed a round of what were generally weak economic indicators earlier this week, according to a report by investment firm Navellier & Associates.The private nonfarm employment number reported in the ADP payroll report was the weakest in two years with only 37,000 job additions and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book survey indicated "all districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty."Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, who is concerned about the "stagflation" scenario in which the economy is weak and consumer costs rise, said in a speech earlier this week that she's seen an uptick in references to "layoffs" in the Beige Book.Navellier also noted that a recent Wall Street Journal article contained speculation from private economists about whether government staffing shortages have been limiting BLS data collection related to inflation, but did not specify a particular error in it.Federal government employment has steadily fallen in 2025 and is down nearly 60,000 from where it was on Jan. 1, Fratantoni noted.What mixed signals in job openings meanSome job indicators have improved in the latest month but still are part of a downward trend for the year.Overall job openings rose to 7.4 million in April from 7.2 million during March, BLS data released earlier this week shows.Those numbers were lower than the 7.8 million reported for January and February's 7.5 million, according to Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey data."We don't see the April rebound as indicating strength in labor demand. Instead, we view it as consistent with a continued gradual cooling," Barclays' economics team said in a research note published Wednesday.

Even though some mortgage industry economists are expecting existing home sales to improve this year, affordability remains an issue holding many consumers back from acting.On the lender side, the competitive landscape for whatever leads are in the market is getting tougher because of the uncertainty around mortgage rates.A new offering from RatePlug looks to address those concerns. The Naperville, Illinois real estate technology company has launched Afordal, which it said unifies the home search process with live mortgage rates, rapid consumer pre-approval and property-specific special financing, such as eligibility for zero-down mortgages.Afordal was driven forward with RatePlug's recent acquisition of HomeASAP at the end of 2024 and its IDX home search, lead generation and real estate agent marketing capabilities. Brad Springer is the co-president of real estate technology company RatePlug But the product was in the works before the merger agreement between Rocket Cos. and Redfin (and later Mr. Cooper) and Lower's purchase of Movoto, said Brad Springer, co-president of RatePlug.The idea was to give buyers this information at the point they're searching for a home, before they reached the buy stage."We thought of this for a number of years," Springer said, noting RatePlug started to work with HomeASAP a year-and-one-half ago, before it acquired the company.HomeASAP has a very good national consumer search portal, "and what we wanted to see of our concept of not just searching properties by purchase price, but could you search properties by approved payments," Springer said.The concept was very successful with different focus groups and a white label test was also conducted with a top 15 mortgage lender and one or two real estate brokerages "just to see, are we on to something here with this? We saw this is going in the right direction," he continued.Springer created and sold three mortgage banking businesses, which gave RatePlug a pretty good idea of what real estate agents and brokers were looking for, including what content would reach a homebuyer and have special meaning for them.RatePlug is integrated into most of the largest multiple listing services around the country. With the agent's permission and with the loan officer they worked with, RatePlug was also able to display payment and product information to the buyersIt is more than lead generation, Springer added. For lenders and agents, the product gives them a lead-nurturing engine which uses artificial intelligence to analyze life events, equity, credit behaviors and listing propensity. It identifies and ranks those customers who are most likely to act and when.This information can be pushed into the user's customer relationship management system when the lead becomes hot."We're not in competition," said Springer. "We're bringing technology to help lenders really engage their customers at the top of the funnel."It is the type of tool which allows loan officers to develop what has been a long-term industry goal of creating a customer for life.When he was in the business, Springer noted that most loan officers depended on those Realtor referral relationships for customers."There's all kinds of data nowadays through [artificial intelligence] that you can look at the propensity of people's life events," he said. "You can tailor your communication to these people at the front, even a year before they're going to buy a house or sell or list, and keep them engaged with a lender."The loan officer can get in front of these people before they work with a real estate agent, and it has to be more than just sending a birthday card; it has to be valuable content they can use, Springer said.This is the direction the real estate industry is moving towards. "Searching homes by payments, to me, has always made sense," he noted, especially given the hidden costs to buyers such as insurance.Springer strongly believes "lenders are going to jump on board with this thing, and the ones that do, I think, are going to get to those people and keep them."

Nonqualified mortgage performance over the past decade has varied broadly by segment while generating relatively few credit losses on average, a new Kroll Bond Rating Agency study showsWeighted averages show losses from a 3.8% cumulative default rate have been just 0.03%, but the CDR is far higher for a market segment like borrowers with credit scores below 660. The CDR for these borrowers verges on 10%, KBRA's study of its own data and Cotality's finds.The study quantifies what default rates for various types of loans in the securitized non-QM mortgage market have been like after a period in which it has been able to establish a track record and experience some strain."NQM delinquency and defaults have been trending higher. Although it may be premature to call this an inflection point, there is now sufficient performance data to assess default and loss dynamics," KBRA analysts wrote in the report.What the numbers are like for alt docs, high CLTVs and DTIsOther segments found to have relatively higher default rates include loans underwritten using alternative documentation for borrower income sources. The default rate for these was 12.9% higher on average than the equivalent for mortgages with full documentation.While there are multiple types of alternative docs used in non-QM lending, KBRA found generally their default rates are similar, except for written verification employment and asset-underwritten loans, which KBRA said "demonstrate comparatively stronger performance."Combined loan-to-value ratios of 85% or higher had an elevated default rate of 5.5% when compared to mortgages with a CLTV in the 65% to 70% range. Loans in the lower CLTV range had a 4.1% default rate.Debt-to-income ratios, which were at one time a key regulatory indicator of whether a loan was considered to have QM regulatory status, made a difference in terms of when they were 45% or higher."Loans with DTIs of over 55%, 50%-55%, and 45%-50% have the highest default rates (6.2%, 5.3%, and 4.1%, respectively)," KBRA analysts wrote in the report. "Below 45%, default rates range between 3.1% and 3.7%, averaging 3.6%, with no discernible pattern."Prior to the QM definition's change to one that generally depends more on the rate or price of the mortgage than other characteristics, loans made within its boundaries had to have a DTI of 43% or lower."Despite this shift, the price-based approach has not meaningfully changed the overall mix of NQM lending, particularly with respect to attributes originally associated with NQM," according to KBRA's report.A growing and influential part of the PL RMBS marketNon-QM has come to represent around 30% of the private-label residential mortgage-backed securities issued since the market reformed after a housing market crash in the mid-2000s, according to KBRA.That crash led to regulation aimed at holding the industry more responsible for borrowers' ability to repay, with the QM definition used in that context as a nuanced boundary for the standard loan indicators in line with that goal.KBRA's study, which examines over 15 mortgage parameters in total, is based on an analysis of more than 475,000 loans with a total original balance of $216.7 billion from around 600 securitizations issued in the 10 years leading up to April 2025.What other rating agencies have said recently about non-QMWith non-QM constituting as much of the private securitized market for single-family loans as it does, other companies rating bonds have been monitoring how the sector is faring too with some variation in the sets of statistics they analyze.Somewhat like KBRA, DBRS Morningstar has indicated distress is still low but is rising. The latter rating agency reported this week that aggregate quarter-end delinquency rates of 60-plus days at 3.78%, up around 27 basis points from three months earlier and 93 from a year ago.Non-QM impairments rose 9 basis points in April "but pace of deterioration slowed," according to a May 30 report by Fitch, which owns analytics firm dv01.Performance during the month bore out a trend in which loans for which profit and loss statements that may be prepared by certified public accountants proved to be "weakest by document type," according to Fitch.

A lumber trade group is taking issue with the National Association of Home Builders' stance against President Trump's proposed tariffs on Canadian wood products. Following comments made on Fox Business earlier this week by NAHB CEO Jim Tobin, the U.S. Lumber Coalition called out the homebuilders' association, which has publicly spoken out against several of President Trump's proposed import taxes this year. The coalition alleged NAHB's views were against the interests of American businesses and consumers. "NAHB continues to advocate for the importation of injurious unfairly traded Canadian lumber while paying lip service to the idea of fair and balanced trade," claimed USLC Chair Andrew Miller, in a press release. Miller is also owner of Stimson Lumber Co., based in Portland, Oregon.Labeling NAHB a Canadian ally, Stimson accused the trade group of advocating against the president's goal of expanding U.S. lumber production and capacity. USLC also called the homebuilders group's assertions of higher housing prices resulting from tariffs "a distraction tactic to avoid having an honest conversation about the origins of U.S. housing affordability problems," pointing to record profits at some companies. Earlier this year, NAHB calculated that the full weight of all of Trump's tariff proposals — if implemented — could increase the average cost of a home by $10,900. Real estate researchers at Cotality similarly warned of construction costs rising by as much as 10% this year due to tariff hikes. In their first-quarter earnings calls, some of the largest publicly held homebuilders also advised that customers should expect prices to go up on new homes in the second half of this year.  "NAHB's own data shows that the cost of softwood lumber in a new home amounts to less than 2% of the total cost of that house, and the cost of any duties levied against Canadian companies is virtually zero to the U.S. consumer," countered the lumber coalition's executive director, Zoltan van Heyningen. "NAHB and Canada should stop trying to scare the public about the strong trade law enforcement that has in fact been essential to stabilizing and growing the domestic supply of softwood lumber," van Heyningen continued. The effect of previous U.S. trade policy helped contribute to increased domestic lumber production, with softwood production capacity up by approximately 9 billion board feet since 2016, USLC said in its release. Total lumber board feet increased by 30 billion over the same time period, as Canadian imports declined. Research analysts have also pointed out that ramped up U.S. production took place around  the same time homebuilders began sourcing more lumber domestically during the Covid-19 pandemic. Severe disruption to global supply chains early this decade led to shortages and price volatility on many building products, leading to less reliance on imports for some builders. NAHB responds to the U.S. Lumber CoalitionIn response to the U.S. Lumber Coalition's remarks, NAHB noted that the current elevated levels of domestic production still fails to meet housing market needs and took issue with USLC's numbers. "Last year, Canada accounted for roughly 25% of U.S. lumber consumption because the U.S. does not currently produce enough lumber to meet domestic demand," NAHB Chair and Lexington, North Carolina-based builder Buddy Hughes said. "NAHB has long championed the need to increase the domestic supply of timber from federally owned lands in an environmentally responsible manner to move the nation in the direction of self-sufficiency and to meet the needs of American homebuilders, homebuyers and homeowners," Hughes continued in a statement sent to National Mortgage News. The trade group also pointed to Fastmarkets data that showed softwood lumber accounting for close to 7% of a median new home price of $407,200. While U.S. production has increased over the past decade, NAHB asserted "U.S. lumber production has been relatively flat since 2020, which is why we are seeing even more imports from other countries such as Germany and Sweden."A brief history of Trump's lumber tariffsCurrent tariff levels on Canadian softwood lumber stand at 14.54% and have ranged between 6.6% and 26.5% since 2017. President Trump initially put forth a planned 25% tariff on all goods coming from neighboring Canada and Mexico, which would have been imposed on top of previously existing levels, potentially shooting the lumber import tax up to 39%. Following implementation of the policy in early March, Trump paused enforcement within days. When new reciprocal tariff policies were introduced, then also suspended, on all countries in early April, Trump also exempted Canadian lumber goods from new tax hikes at that time.With increases eliminated in the short term, lumber futures plunged in the days immediately following the Canadian  exemption. From a close of $662.00 on April 2, quotes tumbled as low as $571.00 the following week, later descending to $538.50 in early May. Prices sat at $606.00 at the close of trading on June 6. Revisions to existing softwood lumber import taxes are under review by the U.S. Commerce Department, with a new rate expected later this year. The department's initial determinations are leading many business leaders to expect at least a doubling of the current 14.54% tax, which would require homebuilders to increase consumer prices of new homes, NAHB said. 

Five U.S. Senators have called into question the lack of federal antitrust oversight of Rocket Companies' proposed acquisitions of Redfin and servicing powerhouse Mr. Cooper.Lawmakers, including Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass, and Cory Booker, D-N.J.,sent a letter to the Justice Department's Antitrust Division and the Federal Trade Commission demanding to know why the agencies did not review the Rocket-Redfin merger during the pre-merger review period. They want answers from both agencies by June 17.The senators also rang the alarm on the pending Rocket-Mr. Cooper merger, noting this will propel the Detroit-based company into becoming a "mortgage finance behemoth" with less incentive to compete for new customers.READ MORE: Rocket's deals for Redfin, Mr. Cooper bring new growth and challengesThe addition of Redfin and Mr. Cooper will turn Rocket into a "massive housing company that threatens to reduce choice and raise prices for American families in the housing market," the lawmakers warned in their letter dated June 4.Rocket did not immediately respond to a request for comment Thursday.Regarding Rocket's $1.75 billion purchase of Redfin, the senators claim the mortgage shop will have the power to steer users of the real estate brokerages platform to the lenders real estate agents, "limiting business for local, independent agents and brokerages."Another concern expressed by the lawmakers is that the purchase of the real estate brokerage might discourage Redfin users from comparison shopping for a better mortgage because they'll be steered to Rocket's financial products. The letter notes that comparison shopping can save borrowers up to $76,410 over a 30-year mortgage.Redfin's grasp on the consumer home shopping experience is notable with nearly 50 million monthly users checking out the platform. However, those numbers are significantly lower than competitor Zillow, which has 204 million average monthly unique users.Nonetheless, the two acquisitions will result in Rocket tripling its client base, with the company itself noting that it will soon control one in six mortgages in the U.S. The addition of Mr. Cooper's $1.56 trillion servicing portfolio and 6.7 million customers adds to Rocket's 2.8 million servicing customers, potentially creating a combined total of more than 9 million customer relationships."Rocket's efforts to consolidate and control the homebuying market onto a single online platform sets a dangerous precedent for consumers, the industry, and the U.S. housing market as a whole at a time when house prices and mortgage rates continue to rise," the senators wrote.Stakeholders in the mortgage industry have similarly expressed that the bundling of all homebuying services could push prices up for homeowners.The mortgage lender's purchase of the real estate brokerage platform has also received scrutiny via litigation filed by a Redfin stockholder. Jason Morano's suit attempted to prevent a Redfin shareholder vote scheduled for June 4, one of the last steps required to close the transaction, but ultimately failed.The plaintiff sued the company, its CEO Glenn Kelman, and Rocket arguing that the brokerage omitted key details for investors — specifically, the relationship between Goldman Sachs, Redfin's financial adviser on the merger, and Rocket.However, a Washington-based judge ruled that the shareholder vote will not be postponed, as both Rocket and Redfin released follow-up information that addressed what the suit claimed was missing: full disclosure of a discounted cash flow analysis for Redfin shareholders and the mega-lender's relationship with Goldman Sachs.

The Department of Housing and Urban Development's own counsel is reportedly concerned that Trump administration-induced staff cuts could disrupt mortgage operations and increase fraud and litigation risks. The revelations stem from an internal HUD document seen by Bloomberg Citylab, according to an article published Thursday. Staff departures at the regulator could allegedly "greatly delay"' or disrupt efforts such as loan underwriting, processing mortgage insurance claims and closing apartment building sales. The outlet reports HUD's Office of General Counsel drafted the memo, as the department prepares for an audit by the Government Accountability Office. Senate Democrats in April asked the nonpartisan federal agency to review their concerns over rumoured staffing slashes at HUD's Office of Fair Housing and Equal Opportunity. A spokesperson for GAO Thursday confirmed it accepted the audit request by Democrats, but said the office could not provide estimates on a completion date. Neither spokespeople for HUD nor for Sen. Elizabeth Warren, ranking member of the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, responded to National Mortgage News' requests for comment Thursday.  Bloomberg said HUD declined to confirm or comment on the memo, but described routine staff departures and restructuring. How HUD is changing under TrumpHUD Secretary Scott Turner has vowed to remake the department under President Trump's vision, touting efforts to eliminate fraud, waste and abuse in his first months in charge. While HUD has confirmed few details about its shakeup, the cost-cutting Department of Government Efficiency task force claimed to have terminated over 100 vendor contracts at the department, for savings of over $100 million. The regulator also hasn't disclosed how its ranks have changed, but posted to X in March that 7.4% of its workforce utilized the administration's Deferred Resignation Program. A spokesperson for HUD told Bloomberg that 2,300 employees were "voluntarily taking the opportunity to find a new path." The Equal Opportunity Employment Commission counts 9,442 permanent workers at the department currently. The loss of lawyers, forensic accountants, data scientists and other analysts at HUD will increase the risk of fraud, corruption and other predatory practices, according to the memo. A reported 39% of staff have left HUD's Office of General Counsel since Jan. 21, the day after Trump's inauguration. Further layoffs at the agency appear likely, should the Trump administration's recommendations for discretionary spending pass. The government is proposing a 43% budget reduction, or $33.6 billion slash to HUD's $77 billion budget in fiscal 2026. While Turner has said the cuts will thoughtfully consolidate existing programs, elected officials have criticized the proposed elimination of some affordable housing programs. 

Federal Reserve Board NEW YORK — At least one Federal Reserve official expects tariffs to lead to higher inflation, and she is worried the effects could be long lasting. Speaking before the Economic Club of New York on Thursday, Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler said she sees ways in which higher trade barriers could lead to "persistent" — rather than transitory — price growth."I don't think it is as clear that one can look past these tariffs and that it would be a one-shot thing or a temporary phenomenon," Kugler said during an onstage conversation with CNBC anchor Sara Eisen. In prepared remarks, Kugler described three channels through which price growth could become permanent: rising consumer expectations, lower productivity from businesses and opportunistic price hikes, the last of which she said she has already seen anecdotal evidence. Kugler's views clash with other members of the Federal Open Market Committee, who have expressed confidence that increases in prices will be minimal and happen just once. Fed Gov. Christopher Waller has been the leading voice in support of this transitory projection. He has said firms would be reluctant to pass along price increases at the risk of losing market share. Data is just beginning to trickle in from the first full month of increased tariffs, but Kugler said she is already seeing signs of economic constraint as a result of the trade policies. She pointed to heightened input costs and core goods prices, a rise in layoff signals and gloomy consumer sentiment survey results as signs that new policies and proposals are shaping economic activity. Many of the tariffs introduced in April were struck down by the U.S. Court of International Trade last month. An appeals court put a stay on that decision last week, allowing the levies to remain in place while the case is litigated. Yet, despite these headwinds, Kugler pushed back against the idea that the Fed should be lowering its policy interest rates preemptively, something President Donald Trump has repeatedly urged the central bank to do. She said because inflation will be the "first order" impact of the tariffs, the Fed should not make policy changes that risk inducing greater demand."My primary focus right now, at this juncture, is inflation," she said. "I think once tariffs are implemented fully we can then start talking about a greater slowdown, because those increases in prices will call for a reduction in demand. But that hasn't happened yet, so it doesn't make sense for us to do something."Kugler said the economy remains on sound footing overall, based on the core government datasets the Fed tracks closest. Despite the uncertainties created by tariffs, she said economic activity has continued to expand, the labor market has been resilient and inflation is still trending toward the Fed's 2% target.Yet, she noted, these datasets all operate with significant lags, providing little insight into where the economy is today and even less about where things might be heading."If policymakers solely rely on these traditional data to forecast what the economy will do in the future, they end up focusing on the past, which is a little like driving down the road by looking in a rearview mirror," she said.Instead, Kugler said she has paid closer attention to private reports such as the Institute for Supply Management's Purchaser Management Index — which tracks input and supply costs — and reports from the firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which provides placement services for workers who have been laid off. She said she also tracks weekly job openings data and layoff announcements from large employers. Kugler said these sources provide her a more real-time snapshot of economic trends, even if they are a bit noisier than monthly and quarterly reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. However, she said she gives less credence to the ADP Employment Report — which Trump has favored in recent months — because it consistently falls short of government-tracked data."Since '22 or so, it has been coming down below the numbers that we get from the Department of Labor, from BLS, and so I'm not particularly concerned about that number, and it's very erratic, so we have to take it with a grain of salt," she said. "But we should see … if those changes are more permanent, if it's not just a one-time thing."Kugler also defended the consumer sentiment surveys from the University of Michigan, which have shown inflation expectations ramping up in recent months, not just for the remainder of this year and next, but also several years into the future. While frequently relied upon in the past, the survey has come under question as of late both because of methodological changes — shifting from in-person surveys to online — and because its figures differ significantly from other measures. "While I take seriously the concern that recent methodological changes in the survey may have made this measure less reliable, this survey is a long-standing and important barometer of consumer sentiment, and I still monitor the signals it is giving us closely," Kugler said in her speech, noting that respondents to the Michigan survey expect inflation to average 6.6% over the next year and 4.2% over the next five to 10 years.Waller has been especially critical of survey-based inflation expectations in recent months. He has argued instead for tracking market-based indicators, such as hedging activity, which indicates an expected inflation rate of roughly 3% in the year ahead with longer-term activity signaling expectations anchored closer to 2%.Kugler also said that other policy changes underway in Washington deserve close attention from the Fed as it attempts to fine-tune its monetary policy. The recent crackdown on illegal immigration, she said, will likely limit labor supply and could drive up wages in certain sectors — namely agriculture, construction, food processing, health care and hospitality — later this year. She also said the budget bill being considered in Congress contains some elements that could stimulate economic activity and other components that could constrain it. On net, she said, the spending package is likely to induce more aggregate demand, which will have to be factored into the Fed's decision-making."It's one more force that could push us towards an increase in prices, which is why I say I'd like to consider all policies," she said. "Obviously, tariffs are the big, key thing that everyone is discussing right now, but there are other things happening, and we need to take advantage of that as well as we develop our monetary policy plan."

Despite being a big banking hub, the top mortgage lenders in North Carolina are mostly nonbanks.In fact, just two of the top 10 are depository banks, with one credit union and the rest nonbank lenders.However, several of the top lenders in the state also happen to be headquartered in North Carolina.Those names include Bank of America, Truist Financial, and State Employees’ Credit Union.Read on to see who topped the list in 2024 for mortgage lending overall.Top Mortgage Lenders in North Carolina (Overall)RankingCompany Name2024 Loan Volume1.Rocket Mortgage$3.7 billion2.UWM$3.5 billion3.State Employees CU$3.4 billion4.Movement Mortgage$2.6 billion5.Atlantic Bay Mortgage$1.7 billion6.DHI Mortgage$1.5 billion7.Truist Bank$1.4 billion8.First-Citizens Bank & Trust$1.4 billion9.Veterans United$1.3 billion10.CrossCountry$1.1 billionWhile you probably guessed that the nation’s top mortgage lender, UWM, was first, you’d be wrong.Instead, Rocket Mortgage was the top mortgage lender in North Carolina last year with $3.7 billion funded, per HMDA data from Richey May.In second was Pontiac-based UWM with a close $3.5 billion, followed by Raleigh based-State Employees’ Credit Union with an even closer $3.4 billion.Next up was South Carolina-based Movement Mortgage, followed by Virginia-based Atlantic Bay Mortgage.Then we had DHI Mortgage, the in-house lender for home builder D.R. Horton, followed by Charlotte-based Truist Financial, formerly two companies (BB&T and SunTrust Bank).The rest of the best included First-Citizens Bank & Trust, Veterans United, and CrossCountry Mortgage.*UWM is a wholesale lender that works exclusively with mortgage brokers, meaning you can’t work with them directly. But you can find a broker via their portal known as Mortgage Matchup.Top Mortgage Lenders in North Carolina (for Home Buyers)RankingCompany Name2024 Loan Volume1.State Employees CU$2.5 billion2.Movement Mortgage$2.3 billion3.UWM$2.0 billion4.Rocket Mortgage$1.9 billion5.Atlantic Bay Mortgage$1.5 billion6.DHI Mortgage$1.5 billion7.Veterans United$1.1 billion8.Truist$1.1 billion9.American Security Mortgage$1.0 billion10.Fairway Independent$944 millionIf we focus solely on home purchase lending, State Employees CU was the top dog with $2.5 billion funded.It was just enough to beat out Fort Mill-based Movement Mortgage’s $2.3 billion.In third and fourth were the nation’s top two lenders, UWM and Rocket Mortgage.While fifth went to Atlantic Bay Mortgage, sixth to DHI Mortgage, and seventh to Missouri’s Veterans United, the top VA loan lender.NC’s own Truist and American Security Mortgage came next, both with about $1 billion in home purchase loans funded.Rounding out the list was Fairway Independent Mortgage, based in far off Madison, Wisconsin.Top Refinance Lenders in North Carolina (Existing Homeowners)RankingCompany Name2024 Loan Volume1.Rocket Mortgage$1.7 billion2.UWM$1.5 billion3.State Employees CU$812 million4.Freedom Mortgage$637 million5.Pennymac$488 million6.First-Citizens Bank & Trust$370 million7.loanDepot$301 million8.Movement Mortgage$296 million9.Truist$293 million10.Veterans United$252 millionNow a look at the mortgage refinance leaders in the state of North Carolina.Unsurprisingly, national #2 mortgage lender Rocket took the top spot with $1.7 billion funded. I say that because they always tend to lead in refis nationally and by state.However, their big rival UWM wasn’t all that far behind, and could give them a run for their money at some point soon.Then it drops off quite a bit, with third place State Employees’ Credit Union only mustering about half their volume.Florida-based refinance specialist Freedom Mortgage took fourth, while SoCal-based Pennymac grabbed fifth.Others in the top 10 included First-Citizens Bank & Trust, loanDepot, Movement Mortgage, Truist, and Veterans United.It was mostly household names on this list, as it usually is. State Employees’ Credit Union did a good job of keeping it local, despite refinances being mainly price driven.Those who rely too much on refis might have trouble in coming years as the market leans heavily on purchase transactions.Top Mortgage Lenders in CharlotteRankingCompany Name2024 Loan Volume1.UWM$1.2 billion2.Rocket Mortgage$1.1 billion3.Movement Mortgage$874 million4.American Security Mortgage$594 million5.Atlantic Bay Mortgage$479 million6.loanDepot$453 million7.State Employees CU$440 million8.Bank of America$435 million9.Truist$391 million10.Wells Fargo$374 millionTop Mortgage Lenders in RaleighRankingCompany Name2024 Loan Volume1.UWM$749 million2.State Employees CU$656 million3.Rocket Mortgage$576 million4.Lennar Mortgage$545 million5.Movement Mortgage$387 million6.First-Citizens Bank & Trust$299 million7.Truist$283 million8.Fairway Independent$216 million9.CrossCountry$207 million10.Pulte Mortgage$189 millionYou May Have Never Heard of the Best North Carolina Mortgage LendersSize isn’t everything. It can be advantageous to be large to get things done in the mortgage industry, but it may also prove to be a nuisance if you’re too big.Sometimes, a nimbler lending partner, such as a mortgage broker or credit union, could get you to the finish line faster, with fewer headaches along the way.I understand that when it comes to financial decisions, using a big, household name can feel like the safe move, but consider all your options.Obviously take the time to vet any company or individual first, but know there are many different ways to get a mortgage.Whether it’s an individual broker, local bank, online lender, credit union, or major financial institution.Chances are there are some really highly-rated mortgage companies out there that probably don’t advertise or get much press.And that’s just fine, as long as they’ve got good reviews, offer competitive pricing, and provide quality service.(photo: Mark Clifton) Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.Latest posts by Colin Robertson (see all)