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Why non-QM underwriting is guiding mortgage lending's future

2025-11-20T22:23:02+00:00

This has been a year of contradictions for mortgage lending. Rates remain elevated, inventory is scarce, origination volumes are weak — yet one segment of the market continues to surge. Non-QM isn't simply performing well in a difficult environment; it has become the unexpected center of gravity for the entire industry.At MBA Annual and ABS East, which ran in parallel this year, this shift was impossible to miss. Non-QM dominated panels, investor conversations, and hallway chatter. The data confirms the sentiment: Nomura's Global Markets Research reports that non-QM issuance is on track to reach $70 billion in 2025, up from $44 billion in 2024 — a remarkable 59% increase in the middle of a mortgage slowdown. When any market segment grows this quickly, skeptics ask the same thing: "Is this from loosening credit?" Nomura's answer is unequivocal — no. Non-QM underwriting standards remain tight, and the average FICO score for recent non-QM originations is among the highest ever recorded. This is not a repeat of the pre-2008 subprime era. The growth is not driven by higher risk; it's driven by better risk intelligence and risk management.Non-QM rebuilt the part of the process where the industry has always struggled: the first mile. Instead of waiting weeks to gain clarity on income, documents, and borrower fit, non-QM embraced what I call "Upfront Certainty" — moving the hardest parts of underwriting to the very first borrower interaction. Traditional mortgage workflows still depend on late-stage verification, multiple rounds of rework, and mid-process surprises. Non-QM flipped that model. Lenders now reach confidence faster, with fewer touches and far less operational drag.This transformation wasn't purely philosophical; it was technical. Non-QM was early to adopt systems that don't just extract data, but interpret it — systems that identify inconsistencies, determine what's missing, and surface risk factors before a file reaches an underwriter's desk. AI takes on the data-intensive work, while underwriters apply judgment to the nuanced cases that require human expertise. The result is not a replacement of underwriters, but a replacement of guesswork.Brokers accelerated this evolution. Once intelligence was embedded directly into TPO portals, submission quality rose almost overnight. Resubmissions declined. Pull-through improved. Borrowers received decisions faster. When brokers see a lender consistently deliver speed and clarity, the business naturally follows. Good underwriting makes good brokers better — and brokers reward the lenders who enable that.The economic impact is even more compelling. Lenders leveraging advanced non-QM workflows are scaling without proportional increases in headcount. They are entering borrower segments that once seemed too operationally heavy. They are defending — and in some cases expanding — margins in a market where margins are under immense pressure. In down cycles, operational leverage becomes a competitive advantage. Non-QM lenders have it. Traditional lenders, in many cases, don't.What is often misunderstood is that these changes won't remain isolated to the non-QM ecosystem. Everything non-QM has perfected — early-stage certainty, AI-driven verification, human-supervised decisioning, predictable workflows — will inevitably become standard across agency lending as well. The signals are already clear: stronger GSE engagement with tech partners, increased focus on early-stage income precision, and a shift toward audit-ready files from day one.Borrower expectations have changed just as dramatically. They now expect the speed of a fintech with the certainty of a bank. They will not return to a world where a mortgage requires 45 days and 20 touches to complete. The first mile has already shifted, and once that shift happens, the industry rarely goes back.Nomura describes non-QM's growth as "increasing market penetration," but the story is bigger than that. Non-QM has redefined how underwriting is done. It has created a blueprint for modern lending — one built on intelligence, precision, and early certainty. And whether lenders realize it yet or not, this blueprint is coming for every part of mortgage.This niche blueprint of today will be the industry standard tomorrow.

Why non-QM underwriting is guiding mortgage lending's future2025-11-20T22:23:02+00:00

FICO upgrades its cash-flow-powered score with real-time data

2025-11-21T13:22:59+00:00

Key insight: FICO's partnership with Plaid shifts credit scoring more toward real-time cash-flow signals. Expert quote: Cornerstone Advisors' Ron Shevlin says real‑time cash flow can provide a more up‑to‑date credit view of borrowers.Forward look: Expect lenders to run cash-flow‑enhanced scores alongside legacy credit scores, requiring more consented data access.Source: Bullet points generated with AI with editorial reviewFICO is bringing a real-time cash-flow data upgrade to its UltraFICO score through a partnership with the data aggregator Plaid. The credit score reporting company is releasing the upgrade as credit bureaus and fintech companies pivot toward including cash-flow underwriting in credit decisions for borrowers. The enhanced UltraFICO score solution uses Plaid's systems to accept and analyze real-time cash-flow data, or information about the money moving in and out of a consumer's financial accounts. Older versions of the UltraFICO score are calculated with a snapshot of several months' worth of historical cash-flow data at a time.Cornerstone Advisors Chief Research Officer Ron Shevlin told American Banker that the UltraFICO score upgrade could give lenders a "more up-to-date view of a borrower's creditworthiness.""Before the Plaid deal the UltraFICO score accessed checking and savings account data, such as account age and balances, to augment traditional credit‑file data," he said. "With Plaid, the UltraFICO score will use real‑time or near‑real‑time cash‑flow data, such as inflow, outflow and account activity, to enhance the score."Cash-flow based underwriting is an older method of loan underwriting that is recently gaining traction again, especially as digital lending brings more borrowers into the market with a lower level of credit history than is typically used for vetting. Experian announced a new combined credit and cash-flow score last week. The consumer-side credit-building fintech Bloom Credit also works with all three credit bureaus, particularly TransUnion for its Bloom+ product, to help individuals boost their credit history with cash-flow information."If a lender's underwriting, decisioning and vendor environment is heavily FICO‑centric, the FICO plus Plaid route will be a quicker rollout and lower friction," Shevlin said. "If a lender is looking to extend credit access, and many are these days, Experian's broader model may offer higher lift, but with more complexity. Many lenders will likely adopt both scores or use them in parallel."Shevlin noted that if lenders opt to use the Plaid‑enhanced UltraFICO score, data connectivity and permission frameworks would need to be built into their decision flows, as banks and lenders need consumer permission to access sensitive financial data."If they aren't, the lift may be limited," he said.FICO's credit scoring models are used by all three major U.S. credit bureaus and most banks and lenders. According to the company, 90% of top U.S. lenders use FICO scores to determine whether to offer a loan to a potential borrower.The new UltraFICO score upgrade will offer lenders flexibility to use a cash-flow model with the traditional FICO score irrespective of what channel they use. It is also aligned to the traditional flagship FICO score to enable cash-flow adoption without introducing lengthy testing or added risk, according to the company."This partnership represents nearly a year of strategic work to address what the market has been demanding, a broader perspective on consumer credit readiness," said Julie May, vice president and general manager of B2B Scores at FICO. "By bringing together FICO's trusted credit score intelligence with Plaid's cash-flow data, we're creating the foundation for more comprehensive lending decisions."Plaid, a fintech that facilitates data sharing between banks and other financial companies, is connected to over 12,000 financial institutions and assists approximately half of American adults in sharing their bank account data online, according to the company. FICO initially released its UltraFICO score product in 2018 as a partnership with the data fintech Finicity, which has since been acquired by MasterCard. The new version of the UltraFICO score will be offered to lenders through Plaid Check's consumer report product. The original version of the UltraFICO score is still accessible to lenders via Experian, according to a company representative."High-quality cash flow data is becoming essential for lenders who want a more comprehensive view of a consumer's financial picture," said Adam Yoxtheimer, head of partnerships at Plaid. "By combining Plaid's real-time connectivity and intelligence with FICO in this next-generation credit score, we are helping lenders make more confident, inclusive credit decisions through a simple and scalable solution."The three main credit bureaus, Experian, Equifax and TransUnion, also developed their own thin-file and trend data-based scoring model back in 2006 called VantageScore. VantageScore announced that it would include opt-in aggregated bank account data in May 2024.Other fintechs that use cash-flow data to evaluate creditworthiness include TomoCredit, Nova Credit and Harvest Platforms (acquired by Acorns in 2021). 

FICO upgrades its cash-flow-powered score with real-time data2025-11-21T13:22:59+00:00

Fed's Cook sees risk in gen AI-manipulated financial trading

2025-11-20T20:22:43+00:00

Key Insight: Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook says emerging risks are arising over how artificial intelligence may influence financial markets.Expert quote: "Recent theoretical studies find that some AI-driven trading algorithms can indeed learn to collude without explicit coordination or intent, potentially impairing competition and market efficiency." — Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook. What's at stake: Public officials have spoken at length in recent months about the promises or perils of AI for the economy, but Cook's remarks are among the few to consider AI impacts on market function.Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook warned Thursday that generative artificial intelligence tools have the potential to shape market dynamics.Speaking at Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business, Cook, who chairs the Fed board's Committee on Financial Stability, said AI trading systems could create market disarray through collusion or manipulation, though she noted research shows the likelihood is small."Recent theoretical studies find that some AI-driven trading algorithms can indeed learn to collude without explicit coordination or intent, potentially impairing competition and market efficiency," Cook said.Cook said AI trading systems can steer market behavior, citing a recent study that found self-learning algorithms are capable of discovering spoofing strategies. She said the systems were placing large orders they never intended to execute to create false impressions of market demand.The Fed governor said that in the future AI systems could come to the market that "operate with greater opacity, execute more complex trades, and better hide manipulative intent."Cook added that the unexplainability of some complex algorithms could make it difficult to regulate or audit these tools."There are growing concerns that results obtained from complex AI models may be difficult to explain or rationalize by human experts — the 'black box' problem," she said. "The inability to fully audit trades executed by algorithms makes surveillance by trading venues and regulators more challenging."Nonetheless, Cook said that alongside tools that can be used with malicious intent, new technologies are emerging that can detect manipulative and collusive behavior."Thanks to improving surveillance capabilities, AI technology could ultimately strengthen market integrity and enhance market liquidity," Cook said. "Trading venues are also taking steps to mitigate the risk stemming from the 'black box' problem associated with AI-enabled trading algorithms."Other Fed governors, including Michael Barr and Christopher Waller, have also recently commented on how AI will impact the economy, particularly the labor market.Barr said in a speech in early November that if AI tools could make certain roles obsolete, adding that a small degree of those changes may already be occurring.However, Barr, the former Fed vice chair for supervision, emphasized that he remains optimistic about how AI will affect communities, saying he believes it will ultimately help the economy grow."I think even if there are some short-term dislocations, what we've seen with the introduction of technologies in the past is that over the long term, new jobs are created and jobs that exist change to be more productive for the worker," Barr said. "Workers get paid more, so it could increase real wages for people."Waller has similarly argued that the long-term economic benefits far outweigh the short-term labor market disruptions the technology will bring.Cook's speech Thursday comes shortly after the Fed released its semiannual Financial Stability Report, which highlighted that excessive market optimism could pose risks to financial stability if economic conditions change. Cook highlighted that overall the U.S. system is "sound and resilient." 

Fed's Cook sees risk in gen AI-manipulated financial trading2025-11-20T20:22:43+00:00

FHA waives disclosure as nominee for commissioner advances

2025-11-20T19:22:56+00:00

The Federal Housing Administration is waiving its policy requiring mortgagees to provide borrowers with a longstanding notice that lays out FHA loan rights and responsibilities.The waiver for use of the "Important notice to homebuyers" disclosure is in line with the federal government's broader deregulatory agenda, and ends the use of "a redundant and outdated form," according to an FHA information bulletin."The change could lead to faster processing times and a less cumbersome experience for the borrower," the FHA wrote.Mortgage companies have been responsible for distributing the form at the start of the loan process, obtaining the borrower's signature and maintaining it in the case binder. Topics covered in the disclosure include fraud, credit scores, prepayment and safety standards.The waiver applies only to loans the FHA has not yet endorsed and other regulatory and statutory disclosure requirements still stand.The FHA has not had a confirmed commissioner since Julia Gordon left at the end of the Biden administration, but the Senate could vote soon on nominee Frank Cassidy, who has been filling the role on an acting basis.Cassidy currently serves as principal deputy assistant secretary at the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Mortgage Bankers Association this week pushed for both his confirmation and that of Joe Gormley, the nominee for Ginnie Mae president.FHA insures mortgages at the loan level. Ginnie guarantees securitizations of FHA loans and others that various government agencies back. Like Cassidy, Gormley currently is serving in the role he has been nominated for on an acting basis.Collectively the two agencies are responsible for a large portion of the U.S. mortgage market that the government directly backs, and the MBA President Bob Broeksmit has stressed the importance of officially putting two leaders with industry experience in charge of them."Frank Cassidy's deep expertise in real estate finance and commitment to improving housing affordability make him exceptionally qualified to lead FHA. Joe Gormley's leadership and extensive experience in housing policy and mortgage capital markets will be invaluable," Broeksmit said in a press statement,The Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs voted 14-10 to advance Cassidy and Gormley by 13-11. The votes were largely along partisan lines.In confirmation hearings, Cassidy faced some concern from Democrats about the downsides of some recent efficiency measures, such as how shrinking FHA timelines for distressed home sales affected chances for families to bid on them and compete with private investors in Atlanta.He also faced questions about HUD cuts during the government shutdown, the impact on efficiency measures on housing counseling and whether he would consider making community land trusts eligible for FHA financing.Gormley has faced questions from Democrats about a reported removal of pending information related to an initiative that would create a securitization vehicle for buyout loans from reverse mortgage securitizations.A request for information HUD published earlier this year on reverse mortgages FHA insures and the related securitizations Ginnie guarantees will result in a more thoughtful approach to those markets, Gormley said in response.

FHA waives disclosure as nominee for commissioner advances2025-11-20T19:22:56+00:00

Mortgage rates likely to remain stable for the rest of 2025

2025-11-20T18:22:49+00:00

Mortgage rates rose again this week after the federal government shutdown ended, giving investors access to economic data to guide their decisions.  Industry pundits and prognosticators today largely believe that, at least through the rest of 2025, nothing in the data is likely to move mortgage rates much.Even though it was compiled before the September jobs report had been published, the 2-basis-point rise as measured by the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey kept the 30-year fixed in the same 6.17% to 6.3% range it has operated in since mid-September. This is a level below the mid-to-upper 6% range it averaged through Labor Day.What is this week's 30-year mortgage rate?The 30-year FRM averaged 6.26% for Nov. 20, up from 6.24% from seven days prior but lower than the 6.84% for the same week last year.At the same time, the 15-year FRM had a much larger gain, up 5 basis points to 5.54% from 5.49% for Nov. 13. But it was still an improvement over the 6.02% registered for the same time in 2024."Mortgage rates have been shifting within a narrow ten-basis point range over the last month," Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, said in a press release. "This rate stability is a positive sign for both buyers and sellers, as it helps provide greater certainty in the housing market."How different sources are tracking the marketOn Thursday morning, the 10-year Treasury yield, one of the benchmarks used to price the 30-year FRM, opened the day at 4.15% before dropping to 4.1% by 11 a.m. eastern time.This followed a 4.13% close on Wednesday and 4.11% on Nov. 13.Lender Price data on the National Mortgage News website has the 30-year FRM at 6.419%, down 1.6 basis points on the day.Information from another product and pricing engine provider, Optimal Blue, as of Wednesday had the 30-year conforming at 6.24%, up 6 basis points from seven days prior.Refinance interest rates as posted on the Zillow website for the 30-year are at 6.67%, as of 11 a.m. Thursday morning, down by 7 basis points on the day and 16 basis points from the previous week's average rate.The Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Application Survey released Wednesday morning had the 30-year fixed rising for the third week in a row, up 3 basis points to 6.37%."Mortgage rates increasing to the highest level in a month led to a slump in borrower demand last week," MBA President and CEO Bob Broeksmit said in a Thursday morning comment. "Applications to both buy a home and refinance were down, but still remained above where they were a year ago when rates were higher."Broeksmit added that the organization expects the 30-year to remain around 6.4% for the rest of this year. What economists are saying is driving mortgage ratesAfter an initial rise following the October Federal Open Market Committee meeting, mortgage rates have traded in a relatively narrow range, said Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow Home Loans. This is largely a result of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's statements saying a short-term rate cut at the December meeting was not guaranteed following the 25 basis point reductions at the two prior gatherings."With the federal government reopened and key agencies resuming data releases, mortgage rates could be more sensitive to incoming economic information as markets reassess their outlook on the labor market and inflation," Ng said in a Wednesday evening statement.This is why the delayed September report, released earlier on Thursday, is important. The government cancelled the October data release and the November release will also be delayed. This will be the final jobs data, Ng said, before the Dec. 17 and 18 FOMC meeting.An early November Wolters Kluwer economists survey found that while 69% are predicting a December reduction, about 13% responded they don't think the Fed will act January, a similar share said March and 5% declared even later.After looking at the September jobs data, a mixed message between job growth and rising unemployment emerged, Sam Williamson, a senior economist at First American Financial, found.With the uncertainty regarding a December rate cut as an overhang, mortgage rates are likely to stay close to current levels for now, Williamson said."Even so, they're now sitting near one-year lows and have pulled back from about 7% in January, giving buyers a bit more breathing room," Williamson's Thursday morning statement said. "While there may be some short-term volatility, the current range offers a fairly dependable floor — enough to encourage more buyers off the sidelines."Potential borrowers should see this current stability as a meaningful opportunity, said Samir Dedhia, CEO of One Real Mortgage in comments on the Freddie Mac survey.The focus is on the Fed December meeting. "While the Fed cut rates at its last meeting, it signaled a more cautious tone for what's next, which led to a slight uptick in bond yields," Dedhia said. "Still, most market watchers remain optimistic that another cut could happen, especially with signs of a cooling labor market and economic growth."

Mortgage rates likely to remain stable for the rest of 20252025-11-20T18:22:49+00:00

Homebuyer affordability improves for fifth straight month

2025-11-20T17:22:51+00:00

Despite increasing home prices, homebuyer affordability improved in October on the back of year-low mortgage rates, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.The national median payment for purchase applicants fell nearly $30 to $2,039 last month compared to September, according to the MBA's Purchase Applications Payment Index. That's down $88 from a year ago and $61 two months prior."Affordability conditions have now improved for the fifth consecutive month because of lower mortgage rates, higher household earnings, and flattening home-price growth," said Edward Seiler, MBA's Associate Vice President of Housing Economics and Executive Director of the Research Institute for Housing America, in a press release Thursday. "Affordability is improving — [the index] is at its lowest level since March 2022 — and is likely to continue to as mortgage rates hold to around 6 percent and more supply comes onto the market," he added.The index declined 1.6% to 152 last month and 5.5% on a yearly basis, as earnings grew and payments dropped 4.2%. A decrease results from falling loan application amounts, lower mortgage rates or increased earnings. For borrowers applying for lower-payment mortgages, the national mortgage payment decreased to $1,402 in October from $1,418 the month prior. Affordability also improved in white, Black and Hispanic households from September to October, with the index dropping 1.8%, 1.9% and 1.9%, respectively. Hispanic households were the most affordable with a 141.6 score on the index, followed by Black households at 151.5 and then White households at 153.1.The two least affordable states reside in the West, with Idaho and Nevada each accumulating scores more than 230. Rhode Island, Arizona and Tennessee came next, with scores of 199.4, 198.6 and 192.8, respectively.Louisiana was the most affordable state with a score of 113.5. Connecticut (116.2), Washington D.C. (118.6), Hawaii (123.6) and North Dakota (124.9) rounded out the top five.While affordability may be improving, homebuying activity is stuck at below-normal levels, as many potential buyers remain on the sidelines due to high prices and economic uncertainty, said Asad Khan, Redfin senior economist.

Homebuyer affordability improves for fifth straight month2025-11-20T17:22:51+00:00

US existing-home sales rose to eight-month high in October

2025-11-20T16:22:50+00:00

Sales of previously owned homes in the US rose in October to the fastest pace in eight months, as buyers took advantage of lower mortgage rates and gained the upper hand over sellers in some markets.Contract closings climbed 1.2% to an annual rate of 4.1 million last month, according to National Association of Realtors data released Thursday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a rate of 4.08 million. The median sales price gained 2.1% from a year ago to $415,200, extending a run of year-over-year price increases dating back to mid-2023. READ MORE: Uneven signals mark a housing market stuck in neutralThe uptick in October sales — a period when the federal government shut down — was the second straight and points to a housing market showing some signs of life after remaining stuck around 4 million — a historically low level — for most of the year.The improvement was fueled in part by a decline in borrowing costs, which dropped to the 6.3% range last month from nearly 7% in May. Sales were strongest among more expensive homes — particularly those costing $750,000 or more."Home sales increased in October even with the government shutdown due to homebuyers taking advantage of lower mortgage rates," NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.Last month, the supply of previously owned homes for sale fell 0.7% to 1.52 million, still near its highest level since mid-2020, NAR data show. Homes remained on market 34 days last month, the longest stretch for any October since 2019, Yun said on a conference call. READ MORE: Loan profits improve for IMBs in 3QA drop to a 5.8% or 5.9% mortgage rate may make a bigger difference to get sales moving, Yun said. But to get back to pre-Covid levels, "it requires drastically larger supply," he said. "We're not seeing that. And a much more meaningful decline in mortgage rates."Nationwide, sellers outnumbered buyers last month by about 500,000, giving the latter some power to demand discounts and other concessions, Redfin estimated in a separate report this month.In the NAR report, sales in the South, the nation's biggest home-selling region, increased 0.5%, marking the strongest rate since February. Sales in the West fell 1.3%, while sales were flat in the Northeast. The Midwest led US regions with a 5.3% sales gain.First-time buyers accounted for 32% of closings, up slightly from 30% a month earlier.The NAR will provide another look at the previously owned home market on Tuesday, when it releases October pending sales. Those are based on contract signings.

US existing-home sales rose to eight-month high in October2025-11-20T16:22:50+00:00

Trump quips he'll fire Bessent if interest rates not lowered

2025-11-20T18:22:54+00:00

President Donald Trump suggested he would fire Scott Bessent if the Treasury secretary doesn't help secure lower interest rates, expressing ongoing frustration with the Federal Reserve's reluctance to cut rates more quickly.Trump's remarks — made in a joking tone — come amid increased pressure on the administration from voters to lower the cost of living. The US central bank is responsible for setting short-term rates that influence borrowing costs across the economy."The only thing Scott's blowing it on is the Fed," Trump said Wednesday at a US-Saudi investment event in Washington. "Rates are too high, Scott, and if you don't get it fixed fast, I'm going to fire your ass. Okay?"READ MORE: Mortgage activity falls as rates tick up againThe president also reiterated that he would love to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling him "grossly incompetent" and that the official deserves to be sued over his handling of a costly renovation of the central bank's campus. Trump also confirmed that Bessent had stopped him from trying to force the Fed chief out.Trump indicated that Bessent had told him, "Sir, please don't fire him, he's got three months to go." The president also told the audience that Bessent is "a voice of reason. You're very lucky you have him, I'll tell you that. He's done a good job." Fed watchers have warned that a forced ouster of Powell would have stoked concerns about central bank independence and roiled financial markets."I think Howard's a little bit more for firing," Trump added, in reference to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. "I think Howard would say, get him the hell out of there."READ MORE: Waller backs 25 bps 'risk management' rate cut in DecemberBessent has no direct control over interest rates as Treasury secretary, with the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee being the panel that determines the benchmark policy setting. The FOMC has voted twice this year to lower rates by 25 basis points, but Trump has pushed for a much more aggressive pace.The Fed declined to comment on Trump's remarks.Bessent's MetricBessent has identified 10-year Treasury yields as his main metric for borrowing costs, and has touted repeatedly that they have come down this year — in contrast with what's happened in other advanced economies. Ten-year yields are a reference point for mortgage rates, which have also retreated this year.The Treasury secretary is leading the effort to select the next chair to lead the Fed when Powell's term is up in May 2026. Trump has repeatedly said that he would like to appoint Bessent as the central bank's top official, but that the secretary prefers to stay in his perch at Treasury.Bessent has curated a list of contenders to lead the Fed that includes current central bank officials Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and BlackRock Inc. executive Rick Rieder.READ MORE: Unemployment persistent, jobs up in SeptemberTrump on Tuesday said that he thinks he's already identified his choice, but didn't offer any indication of who that candidate might be. The president said he was looking at both "surprising" and "standard" candidates, adding that he was likely to pick a conventional choice.Bessent later Tuesday said that interviews were ongoing and that in mid-December Trump would meet with three finalists to make a decision.The next chair is likely to be named to a 14-year Fed governor term that opens on Feb. 1. The term that expires at that time is currently held by Stephen Miran, who is on unpaid leave from the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

Trump quips he'll fire Bessent if interest rates not lowered2025-11-20T18:22:54+00:00

Unemployment persistent, jobs up in September

2025-11-20T14:23:04+00:00

Key insight: Unemployment ticked slightly up to 4.4% — from 4.3% in August — and revisions of prior reports show weaker employment gains over the summer.Supporting data: The economy added 119,000 jobs and 7.6 million unemployed, with major losses in transportation and government offset by gains in health care and social services.Forward look: With October data still missing and the labor market cooling, the Fed faces added uncertainty after cutting rates in SeptemberTotal nonfarm payroll jobs rose 119,000 in September, continuing a trend of little net job growth since April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report released Thursday. The unemployment rate ticked slightly up to 4.4%, from 4.3% the prior monthWith 7.6 million people unemployed, unemployment was higher than a year earlier. BLS noted that the six-week release delay caused by the federal shutdown raised the establishment survey's collection rate, but did not affect household survey data already collected before the lapse. BLS will skip the October report due to the shutdown, saying October establishment data will be released with November's jobs report on December 16."Establishment survey data for October 2025 will be published with the November 2025 data. Household survey data were not collected for the October 2025 reference period due to a lapse in appropriations and will not be collected retroactively," the BLS release stated. "For both surveys, the collection period for November 2025 data will be extended, and extra processing time will be needed."This is the first batch of employment data issued since The BLS paused reports, withholding its September jobs report last month after the agency was shut down with the rest of the federal government when funding expired on Sept. 30. September's labor market looked stronger than August's, from August's weak 22,000 gain, which had signaled a cooling labor market and fueled calls for a Fed rate cut. September's data also underscored the variance across different industries. Hiring was concentrated in a few service industries. Health care added 43,000 jobs, the food services sector gained 37,000, and social assistance jobs rose by 14,000. Losses hit transportation and warehousing, shedding 25,000 positions. The federal government lost 3,000 jobs in September, making a cumulative loss of 97,000 federal jobs since January. Most other major sectors were flat.The September figures, however, confirm that job growth has remained sluggish since spring, and BLS revisions show that earlier months were even softer than initially reported. Revisions in the data cut previously reported July and August payrolls by a combined 33,000. That lack of data also clouds the Federal Reserve's calculus for determining short-term interest rates. The agency's Federal Open Market Committee cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, marking the first rate cut since December. Officials described the move as a prudent cut in the face of labor market weakness, even with inflation still running somewhat above its 2% target rate.Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid argued that policy should stay "slightly restrictive" to keep inflation in check, while Vice Chair Philip Jefferson warned that tariffs and immigration limits are clouding the outlook and pressuring both sides of the Fed's mandate. Fed Gov. Miran and Waller, meanwhile, have called for rate cuts in September to further support a deteriorating labor market.Senator Elizabeth Warren D-Mass., Ranking Member of the Senate Banking Committee characterized the numbers as a sign of weakness in the economy, criticizing the administration for withholding October numbers."After sitting on it for weeks, Donald Trump finally released the September jobs report showing the unemployment rate is up," she wrote in a statement. "It's not surprising that he's now refusing to release the October jobs report, despite the Administration's legal obligation to publish employment data each month."

Unemployment persistent, jobs up in September2025-11-20T14:23:04+00:00
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