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Home-price growth accelerated in December, capping a period with a steep drop in mortgage rates.Prices nationally rose 5.5% from a year earlier, according to data from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. That's larger than the 5% annual gain in November. December's index tracks the final three months of 2023, a time in which 30-year borrowing costs soared to a two-decade high of 7.79% then fell sharply to end the year at 6.61%. The decline unleashed some pent-up demand among buyers who had to compete for a tight supply of homes listed for sale. The country's persistent inventory shortage has helped push purchase prices ever higher. A measure of values in 20 cities was up 6.1% from a year earlier in December, compared with a 5.4% increase in the previous month. San Diego had the biggest year-over-year gain, at 8.8%, followed by Los Angeles and Detroit, each with an 8.3% increase.On a seasonally adjusted basis, 10 of 20 markets beat prior records. Portland, Oregon, had an increase after 11 months of declines."The term 'a rising tide lifts all boats' seems appropriate given broad-based performance in the US housing sector," Brian Luke, head of commodities, real and digital assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement. "Looking back at the year, 2023 appears to have exceeded average annual home-price gains over the past 35 years."

Lowe's Cos. said its sales will fall further this year as consumers continue to hold off from sprucing up their homes amid higher mortgage rates and a drop in new construction projects.Comparable sales for the current fiscal year will be down between 2% and 3%, a slightly larger dip than analysts were expecting, the retailer said Tuesday. Lowe's saw like-for-like sales fall 6.2% for the fourth quarter, though analysts were expecting an even worse performance."This quarter we delivered strong operating profit and improved customer satisfaction, despite the continued pullback in DIY spending," Chief Executive Officer Marvin Ellison said in a statement.RELATED: Home improvement loans: growth opportunities and challengesThe most recent U.S. housing data has shown some improvement in sales of new and existing homes, but still-high borrowing costs mean that residential real estate activity is muted compared with a year ago. While home sales aren't a direct indicator of Lowe's sales, new purchases often fuel demand for home construction projects. Home owners who take on improvement projects make up about 75% of Lowe's sales. RELATED: 20 states with the most home improvement loansIn November, Lowe's cut its full-year forecast, citing fewer purchases of big-ticket items and a slowdown in spending by DIY customers. Total sales for the fourth quarter fell to $18.6 billion, from $22.4 billion for the same period in the prior year. Earnings per share were $1.77, better than expected for the quarter.

A judge in a Pennsylvania federal court declined to grant Newrez's request to issue an emergency injunction, which would bar its former head of retail, James Hecht from continuing to serve as CEO for his current employer, OneTrust Home Loans.The ruling, however, hinges on the defendants' response to Newrez's communication asking to hash out an "acceptable standstill on defendant Hecht's employment acts with his new employer." If Newrez, Hecht and OneTrust fail to come to an agreement, Newrez may then present a fulsome description of the "back- and-forth and positions before seeking emergency injunctive relief," the judge ruled Feb. 23.Newrez asked for the injunction shortly after it filed the suit accusing its former head of retail lending of bringing a handful of Newrez's division managers with him to a direct competitor. The mortgage lender also accused OneTrust Home Loans of conspiring with Hecht in this alleged ploy.In its injunction, Newrez argues the former executive had access to a plethora of internal information and it is "inevitable" Hecht will utilize and disclose trade secrets in connection with his employment at OneTrust to gain a competitive advantage.Newrez did not immediately respond to a request for comment. OneTrust also did not immediately respond.The original suit claims Hecht fired a number of Newrez managers and later rehired them at his new place of employment. The scheme, Newrez claims, also took place shortly after it had announced a recommitment to its retail business after plans to sell didn't materialize.The mortgage lender is concerned that Hecht's access to sensitive information and trade secrets gives the executive an advantage in soliciting other employees to join OneTrust.The mortgage lender points to Hecht's knowledge of the production and compensation information for Newrez's loan originators and said it can be used to formulate compensation offers "sufficient to incentivize the larger producers to jump ship from Newrez for OneTrust."Josh Erskine, founder of OneTrust Home Loans, denied all the allegations in an email Feb 23, noting he is "very surprised to see these claims being made." "Any claim that James Hecht took confidential information or orchestrated the departure of Newrez employees is absolutely false," he wrote. "Our response will make clear that Newrez has filed this litigation out of spite without any facts to support its claims, and that James Hecht did all he could to urge Newrez to avoid what he regarded as a misguided path toward which it was set regarding its retail business." Erskine added the claims are being used by other lenders to scare recruits from working at OneTrust. "The decision to file this lawsuit appears to have been driven far more by emotion rather than reason," he said. Newrez is suing Hecht for breach of contract, misappropriation of trade secrets, unfair competition and tortious interference with existing contracts.

How Much Lower Should Mortgage Rates Be to Refinance?Unfortunately there is no one-size-fits-all answer to this questionBecause no two loan scenarios (or homeowners) are the sameYou have to factor in existing home loan details along with old rate vs. newAnd future plans/financial objectives/expected tenure in home, etc.If you’ve considered refinancing your mortgage, you may have searched for the “refinance rule of thumb” to help you make your decision.Funnily enough, there isn’t just a single refinance rule of thumb. There are numerous ones that exist.And before we dive into them, it should be noted that rules don’t tend to work universally because there is a laundry list of reasons to refinance a mortgage.What works for one person might not work for another, and if you’re relying on some sort of shortcut to make a decision, you might wind up shortchanging yourself in the process.That being said, let’s look at some of these “refinance rules” to see if there are any takeaways we can use to our advantage.Only Refinance If the New Mortgage Rate Is 2% LowerSome say to only refinance if you can get a rate 2%+ lowerThis is definitely not a rule to live by and ultimately very conservativeIt’s possible to save lots of money with a rate that is less than 1% lowerThere are also other reasons to refinance that aren’t always interest rate-dependentOne popular refinance rule says you should only refinance if your new interest rate will be two percentage points lower than your current mortgage interest rate.For example, if your current mortgage rate is 6%, this rule would tell you to refinance only if you could obtain a rate of 4% or lower.But clearly this rule is much too broad, just like any other rule out there. When it comes down to it, a refinance decision will be unique to you and your situation, not anyone else’s.This old rule assumes most mortgage loan amounts are pretty small, unlike the jumbo loans we see nowadays.The thought might be that the closing costs associated with the refinance could eclipse any potential savings. Chances are this is false.[How to lower your mortgage rate without refinancing.]Is It Worth Refinancing Your Mortgage for a 1% Lower Rate?Let’s take a look at some basic math to illustrate why the 2% refinance rule falls short, and how even a rate just 1% lower (or less) can be quite beneficial:Loan amount: $500,000 Loan type: 30-year fixed-rate mortgage Current mortgage rate: 7% ($3,326.51 per month) Refinance mortgage rate: 6% ($2,997.75 per month) Cost to refinance: $4,000In this hypothetical scenario, the existing mortgage payment on a $500,000 loan set at 7% is $3,326.51.If refinanced to 6%, the monthly mortgage payment falls to $2,997.75. Sounds like it could be worth refinancing…That’s a difference of roughly $330 a month, which will certainly make it easier to meet your mortgage obligation. Or simply to allocate the savings elsewhere.However, there is a $4,000 cost to refinance that must be accounted for (let’s not ignore the closing costs).Still, it would only take just over 12 months to recoup the cost of the refinance ($4000/$330). It’s actually even less time if you factor in increased equity accumulation thanks to the lower interest rate.That said, the refinance “breakeven period” (time to recoup your upfront closing costs) is very short here. So we don’t need to follow that “2% lower rate” refinance rule.In fact, even a drop in rate of just 0.50% (from 3.5% to 3%) would result in monthly savings of about $140 and take less than two years to recoup.[See all the top refinance questions in one place.]Pay Attention to Refinance Fees, Especially with Small Loan AmountsBut what if the loan amount were only $200,000? The game changes in a hurry. Your mortgage payment would drop from $1,330.60 to $1,199.10.That’s roughly $130 in monthly savings, not very significant, especially if it still costs you thousands to refinance.Assuming the cost of the mortgage was still somewhere around $3,000, it would take about 23 months, or roughly two years, to recoup the costs associated with the refinance.If you were thinking about selling your home in the short term, it probably wouldn’t make sense to throw money toward a refinance.That is likely why this old refinance rule exists. But home prices (and loan amounts) are much higher these days, so it’s not a good rule to follow for everyone.The same goes for any other mortgage rate rule that says your rate should be 1% lower, or 0.5% lower.Whether it’s favorable or not really depends on a number of factors, such as the loan amount, closing costs, and expected tenure in the home.If we don’t know the answer to all those questions, we can’t just throw out some blanket rule for everyone to follow. Again, don’t cut corners or you could find yourself in worse financial shape.[Check out these mortgage payment tables to quickly eyeball differences in rate, or use my refinance calculator to run your own simulation.]Tip: Pay close attention to the closing costs associated with the loan. Simply looking at the rate and payment isn’t good enough.Only Refinance If You’ll Save “X” Dollars Each MonthThis blanket refinance rule fails to consider the interest savingsThe decision might have nothing to do with your monthly paymentThere are other benefits to a refinance aside from paying less each monthSuch as the faster accrual of home equity and a shorter loan term (perhaps due to retirement)Another common refinance rule of thumb says only to do it if you’ll save “X” dollars each month, or only if you plan to live in your home for “X” amount of years.Again, as seen in our example above, you can’t just rely on a blanket rule to determine if refinancing is a good idea or not.Some borrowers may need to stay in their home for five years to save money, while others may only need to stick around for just over a year.But plans change, and you may find yourself living in your home much longer (or shorter) than anticipated.And if you look at the refinance savings in dollar amounts, it will really depend on the cost of the refinance and how long you make the new payment.If it’s a no cost refinance, which is always a popular option, you won’t even have to worry about the break-even period.There are also homeowners who simply want payment relief, even if it means paying more interest long-term.Others may want to refinance into a shorter-term mortgage, perhaps to pay off their loan before retirement, even if it increases their payment in the process.So it’d be foolish to get caught up on this rule unless you have a bulletproof plan in place. Let’s face it, nobody does.[Does refinancing hurt your credit score?]Forget the Rules, Consider the Loan Term and TypeThe mortgage term (and type) can be a big part of the decision to refinanceConsider your remaining loan term and what type of mortgage you’ll be refinancing intoAlong with how long you plan to keep the new loan post-refinanceAlso factor in your future plans (moving, staying put, or keeping the property to rent out?)Finally, consider the mortgage term when refinancing, and the total amount of interest you can avoid paying over the life of the loan.If you’re currently five years into a 30-year fixed mortgage, and refinance into a 15-year fixed mortgage, you’ll shave 10 years off your aggregate mortgage term.Assuming mortgage rates are low enough at the time of refinance, you could even wind up with a lower monthly payment despite the shorter term.You will also build equity faster and greatly reduce total interest paid, which will shorten your break-even period and maximize your savings.[30-year mortgage vs. 15-year mortgage]If you simply refinance into another 30-year loan, you must consider the five years in which you already paid interest when calculating the benefits of the refinance.Those who have had their mortgage for a decade or longer may won’t want to restart the clock at 360 months, even if mortgage rates look too good to pass up.Also factor in your current loan type versus what you plan to refinance into.If you currently hold an adjustable-rate mortgage that will reset higher soon, the decision to refinance may be even more compelling.Put in the Time and Do the Math Before You DecideAt the end of the day, you shouldn’t use any general rule to determine whether or not you should refinance.Doing so is lazy, especially when it’s not that difficult to run a few numbers to see what will make sense for your particular situation.If you feel overwhelmed by all the math, ask a friendly loan officer or mortgage broker to run some scenarios for you to illustrate the potential savings and break-even periods.They have the tools at their fingertips to quickly generate various outcomes simply by plugging in some numbers.Just be sure they’re giving you an accurate and complete picture and aren’t simply motivated by a paycheck. Data can be manipulated in many ways.As noted, you can also check out my mortgage refinance calculator on this very website to run the numbers yourself.Either way, take your time – you’re not shopping for a big screen TV, you’re making one of the biggest financial decisions of your life.The return on investment can be huge if you get it right.Tip: When to refinance a home loan.(photo: angermann)

Condo values are falling in Florida as the effects of severe weather drive the cost of ownership up and insurers out, according to new Redfin research. Sales of condo units fell 6.8% in January from one year earlier in the Sunshine State. At the same time, prices climbed up 2.4%, but the upturn was attributed to depressed values within two counties in January 2023 after Hurricane Ian. In other major population centers further from the natural disaster, median prices fell from one year ago, declining 1% in the Tampa market and 6.5% in Jacksonville. Changes occurring in the Florida condo market are running counter to overall statewide trends that show home prices still accelerating on a year-over-year basis. Sales of single-family homes rose 9%, while the median price rose by double digits.Florida condo price movements are also bucking growth seen in the rest of the U.S., the online real estate brokerage said. The median of a Florida unit came in at $317,000 in January compared to $340,000 nationwide. "Condos are sitting on the market much longer than they used to, with less interest from buyers," said Heather Kruayai, a Jacksonville Redfin agent, in a press release.The volume of active condo listings on the market expanded by 40% across the entire state from a year earlier, with two communities hit the hardest by Ian  — Cape Coral and North Port — seeing increases of over 80% each. But even in Miami, available condo inventory grew 14%.The surplus of condo units on the market comes as insurance and homeownership fees head dramatically higher. The Insurance Information Institute found costs for coverage increasing 102% over the last three years in Florida, making them three times higher than the national average. The rapid rise in prices for coverage from the National Flood Insurance Program, required for homeowners in many communities, led to a lawsuit from several state attorneys' general, including Florida's, last year.While driving policy costs up, the impact of climate-related disasters also led Farmers Insurance to cease opening new policies for state residents.Similarly, homeowners association fees are jumping higher at a faster clip than previously to address the risk from natural disasters. The 2021 structural failure of a condominium tower in Surfside, Florida resulted in the introduction of new regulations, which mandate HOAs conduct regular safety inspections and collect money for necessary maintenance. Association fees may often help pay for the property owner's insurance costs, while the homeowner is still responsible for obtaining their own coverage. "Condo costs are shocking," said Juan Castro, an Orlando Redfin agent. "Condos that used to have a $400 monthly maintenance fee may now have a $700 fee. It's causing buyers to rethink their plans."The rise in insurance and HOA expenses is making the idea of condo ownership unappealing or even unaffordable for many who might otherwise consider purchasing one."Sky-high HOA costs are pushing buyers out of their monthly budget," Kruayai said. 

Fannie Mae is projecting that mortgage rates close out the year at a higher level than what the government-sponsored enterprise had previously predicted, even though it also had a more optimistic view on the overall U.S. economy than in prior forecasts.The 30-year fixed rate mortgage will average 6.5% for the current period, but fall to 5.9% by the fourth quarter and 5.7% for the same period in 2025, the February forecast reads.Its January outlook put the 30-year FRM average at 5.8% for the fourth quarter and 5.5% one year later.In the past two weeks, mortgage rates have zoomed up 26 basis points, bringing the 30-year FRM to 6.9%, according to Freddie Mac, as bond market investors digested the latest news on inflation and how the Federal Reserve would react.The unexpectedly strong fourth quarter 2023 gross domestic product of 3.3% drove Fannie Mae to increase its full-year outlook to 1.7%. But that is still slower than 2023's 3.1%."Right now, our base case scenario foresees economic growth decelerating, rates gradually declining, and new single-family home sales slowly recovering as construction adds supply," Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae chief economist, said in a press release. "However, if economic growth continues to surprise to the upside, then we believe the risk of mortgage rates remaining higher for longer will also increase."Total home sales should increase by 5% this year to just short of 5 million units, seasonally adjusted. New home sales of 734,000 units seasonally adjusted, represents a 9.9% rise.Both numbers are higher than January's 3.7% and 7.7% respective predictions.New home sales data for January released earlier on Feb. 26 found a 1.5% annual increase for the month."The outlook for the new single-family home market is positive, but there are challenges," First American Financial economist Ksenia Potapov said in a statement on the release. "Potential home buyers are sensitive to mortgage rate fluctuations and long-term interest rates have risen again in recent weeks in response to stronger-than-expected economic data."Given those factors, Duncan cut his overall forecast for this year by $60 billion to $1.916 trillion from $1.977 trillion. The reduction was split evenly between the purchase forecast, now $1.457 trillion and refinancings, at $459 billion.February's 2025 outlook is $83 billion lower, $2.358 trillion from $2.441 trillion one month ago.Duncan cut the purchase prediction by $40 billion to $1.649 trillion, while dropping refis by $43 billion to $709 billion.However, the economists at the Mortgage Bankers Association remain more bullish on the market, with its February forecast a shade above the $2 trillion mark, a mere $6 billion lower than a month ago.All of that change comes from the purchase side, down to $1.53 trillion. The MBA's refinance outlook is for $471 billion.Its forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged at $2.339 trillion and $2.446 trillion respectively.But First American's Potapov was cautious on the market going forward, stating "While the Federal Reserve is still expected to cut interest rates later this year and with fundamental demand remaining strong, builders are optimistic for the future. However, the significant boost in home sales activity typical for the spring homebuying season may be delayed later into the summer."

Sales of new homes in the U.S. edged higher in January as builders and buyers capitalized on lower mortgage rates at the start of the year.Purchases of new single-family homes increased 1.5% to a 661,000 annual pace after the prior three months were revised lower, government data showed Monday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a rate of 684,000.The housing sector got off to a good start in 2024 with a retreat in mortgage rates boosting homebuilder sentiment and providing some traction for the resale market as well. However, with the Federal Reserve in no rush to lower borrowing costs, rates have been on the rise again, which could make any momentum in housing short-lived.The median sales price of a home decreased to $420,700 in January from a year ago, marking the fifth-straight decline, as more homes became available for sale. New-home supply increased to 456,000 from the prior month, the most in over a year, according to the report issued by the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development.Sales jumped in the Northeast and West, while the Midwest posted a more modest gain and transactions declined in the South.New-home sales are seen as a more timely measurement than purchases of previously owned homes, which are calculated when contracts close. Those sales rose in January by the most in nearly a year.The data are volatile, though. The government report showed 90% confidence that the change in new-home sales ranged from a 18.4% decline to a 21.4% gain.

The mortgage industry is largely expecting to encounter a challenging, but improving, 2024 spring buying season. While rates and prices remain higher than what many consumers would prefer, aspiring buyers are still searching, home lenders and Realtors say. But there are questions about how the mortgage community can best accommodate them. Limited affordability and inventory have led many to try different customer-acquisition strategies than they did a few years ago, as buyers become more discerning compared to recent years.At the same time, sentiment is tilting in a more positive direction following a challenging two- year period, according to Michael Linger, senior vice president of the financial services group at global investment bank Houlihan Lokey.  "There are pockets of optimism," said Linger, who covers the mortgage industry. "The questions are around inventory freeing up and any real meaningful rate movement."Mortgage companies hoping for a more profitable environment compared to 2023 may use as a benchmark the level of activity seen in the years preceding the Covid-19 pandemic, as they were characterized by growth at more affordable levels. "When you think about where interest rates were, where inventory was, it was still tight. We still had an appreciating market, which is historically good for homeowners," said Christy Soukhamneut, chief lending officer at University Federal Credit Union in Austin, Texas.  "We particularly want the underserved borrower to be able to get into a home and not have it go down in value. We want to see them have some price appreciation. We want to see that in an affordable range," she said.By some measures, market conditions are starting to more closely resemble those of later in the last decade. "When you look at mortgage sector employment following the pandemic, it is now just crossing the same level that it was pre-pandemic," Linger said. "However, volumes are, on a run rate basis, lower than they were," Volatility has not disappeared, though, as exhibited by recent interest rate spikes. As a result, lenders are coming into spring armed with new approaches to reaching borrowers, applying lessons of the past few years.Consumers both cautious and eagerWhile contradictory, current trends are leading both to a sense of urgency among some buyers who fear missing out on the benefits of homeownership and a wait-and-see attitude among others hoping for lower rates. "I think a lot of the consumers are being pretty strategic about how they are going about buying and selling homes and how that progresses," said Ron Berry, senior vice president of retail mortgage sales at Carmel, Indiana-based Merchants Bank. Potential buyers, to a degree, are "sitting on the sidelines waiting for the opportunity — the right opportunity to come along," he said.The most recent measure of home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae shows consumers expect buying conditions to improve as the year progresses. But the rate of price appreciation is also driving others to jump in sooner. "I think the fear of missing out a few years ago was interest-rate driven," said Roger Steur, partner and senior loan officer at Birmingham, Alabama-based Method Mortgage. But any urgency now is more likely to revolve around "grabbing an investment before it really starts going up.""I think that's the FOMO that could happen right now. It's just — 'I've got to do something now or else I might not be able to a year or two or three from now because prices seem to continue to be on an upward trend,'" Steur saidPre-approvals, marketing outreach help originators stay aheadBecause lenders are now seeing customers at both the ready-to-buy and willing-to-wait stage, relationship-building is more crucial than it has been in the past few years, especially if interest rates head downward."When the market does turn, it presents another opportunity for you. You build trust, you build a partnership with a client, with a referral partner," said Tony Grothouse, founder and CEO of Revolution Mortgage, based in Westerville, Ohio."Acquire customers, win relationships right now. That's really the key message for us from a philosophical or a strategy standpoint."And for buyers who might be mortgage-ready, a lending partner can also help demonstrate that there is still a "viable product to be distributed," given current rent levels and rising home equity."You can still make an incredibly appealing story," Grothouse said. A component of relationship-building frequently involves helping clients understand their finances and buying potential and then preparing to act when ready. At Merchants Bank, it means a spike in pre-approvals over the last two years, according to Berry."I think that's one of the most important things that any home buyer — but especially first-time home buyers — can do is reach out to your lender and get pre-approved. So that way you know what you're looking for from an affordability perspective, from a purchase amount perspective from a payment perspective," he said."We see, especially in the spring, a lot of pre-approvals come through."Consumers and Realtors become more educated about mortgage optionsThe volatility of 2023 has made home buyers particularly rate sensitive, leading them to explore all possible ways to reduce monthly payments. As a result, buyers expect lenders to present varied options available, including products with different terms or buydowns. They are often guided by their Realtors. "We're anticipating we're still going to see a market in which supply outtrends demand," said Bill Bill Lublin, CEO of Century 21 Advantage Gold in Philadelphia and president-elect of the Pennsylvania Association of Realtors. "We're going to rely on the mortgage industry to provide financing vehicles that make sense."Adjustable-rate mortgages and buydowns are among the products with benefits for home buyers today, according to Preston Moore of Howard Hanna Real Estate Services near Pittsburgh. During last fall's interest-rate surge, the share of adjustable mortgage applications increased to as high as 11%."We have resurrected mortgage products that we hadn't used in six, seven, eight years," said Moore. His firm also offers mortgage broker services, while Moore currently serves as president of the Pennsylvania Association of Realtors. In the Philadelphia area, "we're seeing people leaning perhaps into the shorter-term to get a better rate, or leaning into an adjustable mortgage," Lublin added."Because we had interest rates at 2% or 3%, none of those products made any sense. But now those products are actually coming back," Moore saidMoving beyond the tried-and-true purchase mortgageWith affordability and still-low inventory levels top of mind among buyers and lenders alike, companies are introducing or leaning into products and programs outside of the traditional purchase mortgage."I think that new construction is going to be a big piece to what's going on in that near to immediate future to catch us up on supply," said Grothouse, whose company offers an in-house building project.Depending on the research source, the U.S. is experiencing a shortage of available housing totaling 1 million units or more, and homebuilding and construction industries are reaping some of the benefits of low existing inventory. Until supply meets demand, newly built homes should trend higher in the foreseeable future."It's going to be a staple of the next few years," Grothouse said. "So we've invested a lot of resources, talent into that department in general in looking to build that up."In the near term, this spring also holds potential for increased construction lending if rates fall as expected, said Steur. Method Mortgage offers a one-time close loan for borrowers in its Southeastern markets."One of the pushbacks in the past was the final interest rate wasn't locked in until 60 days prior to completion. A couple of years ago that wasn't very popular," he said."Given the fact that every economic pundit is saying that rate should drop in the second half of the year, this product allows you to try to catch that lower rate six months from now, eight months from now."While not new, discount programs aimed at various professions also could also bring borrowers to the table. To entice buyers this season, Method also rolled out a new discount this spring to help bring down closing costs for members of various professions, including educators, first responders and nonprofit employees. Seasonal patterns still apply even as borrowers and moving patterns changeAlthough many home buyers may be willing to hold out longer for a better rate this year, the upheaval caused by the pandemic does not appear to have dramatically altered seasonal influences.While lower interest rates, work-from-home trends may have led to an "anomalous market" in the past few years, the effects of those factors have dissipated, with normal seasonal patterns returning, Lublin said."I think they were just obscured by some of the 'noise,'" he said.Instead, school and work calendars continue to have a larger effect on when buyers choose to enter the housing market. "People's psychological habits haven't really changed. They're more interested in moving when they feel like they have more time available to do it," UFCU's Soukhamneut said. Typically, that mean springtime home searches before summer relocations."One of the biggest pieces of seasonality is the school year," Soukhamneut added. "A lot of people that move have children, and either they're the ones that are selling or they're the ones that are looking to buy or some combination thereof. So you see a lot more towards the end of the school year where kids are allowed to finish out."But local trends can still steer mortgage lending in different directions from the national course. "I think that the seasonality of it is — probably at least here in the Midwest — is probably more elongated," Berry said. "That buying season now feels like to me like it does come out of hibernation in the spring, but we're seeing a consistent amount of what I would call purchase applications, really all the way up until back-to-school time."

Greg Sher, managing director at NFM Lending, is piping up on topics many in the mortgage industry would balk at discussing on the record.On LinkedIn, Sher has written posts about mergers and acquisitions, FICO moving to raise the cost of soft-pulls, "mediocre recruiters" and how some vendors have dropped the ball in supporting lending clients.In the past 90 days, his posts have had close to 1 million impressions, LinkedIn stats shared with National Mortgage News show. The engagement he's seen with those posts highlight a "leadership void in mortgage," which has been amplified with the passing of Dave Stevens, former FHA commissioner and industry advocate, Sher said."When he passed, I felt a responsibility to help advocate and shoulder some of the burdens of our industry," said Sher. "Dave was a giant person, a giant force, and no one of us can fill that void, but if I can inspire one person a day, regardless of their title, to step out of their comfort zone and speak about an issue they're passionate about, I will have made Dave very proud."Founded in 1998 and headquartered in Linthicium, Maryland, NFM Lending ranked 24th among 2023's top overall lenders by Scotsman Guide. In 2021, Sher co-founded the company's influencer division, which draws leads from those engaging with content from select loan originators posting on Tiktok, Instagram, Youtube and beyond. "I grew up around marketing and TV, so when I saw on video people talking about mortgages and I saw the traction they were getting with follows, likes and comments, it really was a centennial moment for me," said Sher. "I realized what an opportunity was before me and the mortgage industry, so I seized it."Currently, the division, which has generated close to 65,000 leads and over $400 million in closed volume, has 14 influencers and it is looking to keep growing."Anyone who feels the future of their business is going to be around their brand, they come to NFM and we coach them on how to communicate with customers through social media," he said.It was a natural extension for Sher himself to become an influencer for others working in home finance with his posts sounding off on the issues of the day. Sher sat down with National Mortgage News to discuss how he plans to use his social media platform to bring the mortgage industry together, NFM Lending's influencer division and the importance of empathy during a time of turbulence for IMBs.

When it comes to retention some large players are making headway but smaller ones who have fewer resources are still struggling. That's where the latest wave of servicing technology comes in."The bad news is customer retention for U.S. mortgage servicers is at a 16-year low of 11% per the latest MBA data," Julian Hebron, founder at lender and fintech consultancy The Basis Point said, commenting on the statistic at the Mortgage Bankers Association servicing conference in Orlando."The good news is a rising innovation wave in servicing fintech can help grow this to industry-best levels of tech-forward servicers like Mr. Cooper and Rocket, which currently have retention rates of 83% and 90%, respectively," he added.Companies demonstrating technology addressing this at the conference include Willow Servicing, which has a cloud native platform and functions supportive of originators aiming to retain customers; and Homebot, which sells technology aimed at optimizing repeat business and referrals.Optimal Blue, which uses real-time product and pricing engine data to make targeted retention offers to borrowers, also demonstrated its automation as did Haven, a company that aims to constantly engage customers with automated reports on loan status, equity and eligibility for other products.In addition to the major announcement released by servicing tech incumbent Sagent and one shortly before the show by competitor Intercontinental Exchange a week earlier, other relatively new tech products that vendors were marketing during the conference included Autopilot.The white-labeled automated underwriting system from Ardley Technologies, in line with the retention theme, aims to help servicers provide new mortgages or home equity products to customers identified as prospects.The system handles underwriting for the new loans through conditional approval, after which loans may go to the end investor's AUS, said Tim McLuckie, chief technology officer. It's designed to accommodate compliant loan officer involvement.It's part of a broader set of products the company has to help with borrower retention, including pre-existing portfolio analytics designed to identify such new origination opportunities for existing customers."We do millions of calculations per night for the servicers, dozens on each borrower. That servicer knows what value they have, and they decide how they want to market. That's where Autopilot comes in," McLuckie said.Other companies were focused on technologies accommodating interim servicing. These aim to help facilitate a lender's handoff to a servicer after origination without disrupting the relationship with the borrower.For one, cloud-based lending technology provider Blue Sage Solutions was in Orlando marketing a product in this area that it launched last month to improve what David Aach, chief operating officer, describes as a "painful manual process for many originators.""If you don't have your own servicing system, which a lot of originators do not buy, you have to figure out how to process that initial payment," he said. "The borrower may call up and ask, 'Did you get my check? Am I going to get my statement? Where can I go online to pay?'"