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Following its absorption of the Mr. Cooper and Redfin organizations, Rocket Companies confirmed it conducted a round of layoffs on Oct. 17, in line plans for cuts announced in second-quarter earnings.The reduction in force affected less than 1% of its team, the company said in a statement, confirming information which appeared in HousingWire."Following the Mr. Cooper acquisition, we carefully reviewed our combined structure, identified overlapping roles and made the difficult decision to streamline teams," the statement said. The Mr. Cooper deal closed on Oct. 1, while Rocket's purchase of Redfin was completed on July 1."These decisions weren't made lightly," the statement said. "They reflect change needed to build a focused organization for the future."Rocket's prior comments on expense reductionDuring its second quarter earnings call, Brian Brown, Rocket's chief financial officer warned that for the period set to end on Sept. 30, Rocket would have a $90 million increase in nonrecurring expenses as a result of the two deals."Of that, $30 million reflects severance and transaction costs, which will be classified as one-time expenses," Brown said. "The remaining $60 million reflects interest expense incurred from refinancing Mr. Cooper's debt ahead of closing."In July, it also reduced headcount across some of general and administrative teams as well as Rocket Companies proper, Brown said on the call. These, along with the exit from Rocket Mortgage Canada and the credit card business, will result in about $80 million of annualized savings independent of the merger savings, but the company will not fully realize this in the fourth quarter."Impacted team members were provided a comprehensive package that includes 12 weeks of severance pay plus one additional week for each year of service, continued benefits for up to 12 months and personalized transition support such as career coaching and job search assistance," the company's statement said.Economists comments about capacity and productivityBack in February, even with all the preceding layoffs at Rocket and other companies, production overcapacity still plagued the mortgage industry, Boston Consulting Group noted.At the Mortgage Bankers Association's annual convention on Sunday, its economists warned that productivity among industry workers had fallen below 2018 levels.Pull-through rates fell to 55% for depositories and 69% for nonbanks in the first half of this year, said Marina Walsh, the MBA's vice president of industry analysis, research and economics.Mortgage layoffs in 2025Among some of this year's reductions in force involving other companies' mortgage operations is Oceanfirst Bank, which is outsourcing its originations to Embrace Home Loans and will be letting go of 114 positions.Mortgage subservicer Cenlar closed its O'Fallon, Missouri office in July, a reduction which affected 93 people. Back in April, Amerant Mortgage let go of 58 workers, following a decision to limit its footprint to Florida, where its parent bank is located.On the technology side of the business, Dark Matter had its own reduction in force of an undisclosed size to align with current marketplace realities, company management said in May.

Sorry to throw cold water on the recent mortgage rate rally, but this could be as good as it gets.At least, if you believe the latest forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association, which is typically an optimistic outfit.The MBA released its latest forecast at its 2025 Annual Convention and Expo in Las Vegas and it wasn’t pretty.They expect long-term rates to remain elevated, despite expected Fed rate cuts, which will keep 30-year fixed mortgage rates from moving much lower.In fact, they project a 30-year fixed north of 6% from now through the year 2028!Blame the Deficit and Stubborn Inflation for High Mortgage Rates2025: 6.4% 30-year fixed2026: 6.4% 30-year fixed2027: 6.3% 30-year fixed2028: 6.5% 30-year fixedThe MBA explained that “growing budget deficits and elevated inflation expectations will keep longer term rates from falling further.”This despite a more accommodative Federal Reserve that is widely expected to keep cutting its own federal funds rate.Of course, the FFR is a short-term, overnight lending rate, while mortgage rates are much the opposite, typically loans with a lengthy 30-year term.So even if the Fed keeps cutting, despite continued inflation and out of control government spending, we might not see mortgage rates move meaningfully lower.Instead, they might kind of just settle in at current levels and stay there for the next few years.Specifically, the MBA has the 30-year fixed averaging 6.4% next year, 6.3% in 2027, and an even higher 6.5% in 2028.In other words, this might be the near-term floor for mortgage rates for a while, assuming the MBA’s dour rate forecast comes true.Probably not the news a lot of recent homeowners and prospective home buyers want to hear, but a possible reality nonetheless.There Will Be Periods Where Mortgage Rates Dip and Provide OpportunitiesIf that all sounds pretty awful, don’t lose hope.First off, it’s notoriously difficult to predict mortgage rates, and year after year, the MBA and all the others that attempt to forecast rates often fail.They were wrong for many years when rates kept falling, and wrong for many years when rates kept rising.Chances are they’ll be wrong again and we’ll get surprises as we always do.In addition, mortgage rates can bounce all over the place in a given year, even if they average a certain number once you zoom out.To that end, the MBA “expects there will be periods where rates drop, which will provide moments of refinance activity, similar to what has occurred several times in 2025.”So if you’re hoping to apply for that rate and term refinance to get some payment relief, just be sure to keep a close eye on rates.There are always periods when rates drop unexpectedly, even if they’re brief. Be ready to move if and when that happens to lock in your rate.To that end, the MBA still expects purchase originations to increase 7.7% to $1.46 trillion next year and refinance originations to rise 9.2% to $737 billion.Still a Good Chance We’ll Go Even Lower From HereI’m also not convinced this is the best we’re going to see for mortgage rates. It seems pretty clear the economy is cooling significantly.We all remember those ugly jobs reports released before the government went in shutdown mode.When the economy slows, mortgage rates tend to drop.We’re already at some of the lowest levels in the past three years (remember the 8% rates?), and that’s without a real flight to safety due to this perceived weakness.The stock market remains at very lofty levels and if and when investors decide to finally seek the safety of bonds, we could see interest rates be the beneficiary.As it stands now, we’re just above 6% for a 30-year fixed, already below the MBA’s current forecast.And there are plenty of reasons to expect even mortgage lower rates, whether it’s falling inflation or rising unemployment, even if government spending continues to be an issue, as it always seems to be.Read on: How we get to sub-6% mortgage rates by the end of 2025. Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.Latest posts by Colin Robertson (see all)

A credit reporting agency on Monday morning responded to an industry proposal to look into ending the tri-merge with a study finding it even more harmful to borrowers than a two-score pull.Although an earlier Standard & Poor's study found a bi-merge alternative to the status quo in the mortgage industry could be viable, TransUnion research shows eligibility and mortgage rates could be adversely affected for millions in both that instance and with one score.The credit reporting agency indicated 4.4 million consumers could be adversely impacted with a single score, compared to a 2023 study in which TransUnion found nearly 2 million would no longer qualify in the case of a bi-merge."A 'single-pull environment creates significant risk that strong borrowers will lose access to credit while additional at-risk borrowers find themselves in a mortgage they can't afford," Satyan Merchant, senior vice president, mortgage and automotive, at TransUnion said in a press release."In the long run, that creates fresh risks for investors and threatens the safety and soundness of a mortgage market with tremendous taxpayer exposure," he added.The study also finds that a group of borrowers would collectively pay an additional $6.5 billion with single pull as opposed to $4 billion for a bi-merge. There also have been questions about whether using less data to assess borrowers adequately measures their risk.The release of the study follows a call from the Mortgage Bankers Association earlier this year to look into the feasibility of ending the tri-merge long embedded in the home lending system as the costs of credit reporting and scoring have risen.The MBA is in the midst of its annual conference and plans to discuss related matters at a session later today.US Federal Housing Director Bill Pulte, who oversees two influential government-related mortgage buyers, has responded to calls for more competition in the credit metrics by moving forward with plans to add VantageScore 4.0 and encourage competition between CRAs.(USFH is Pulte's rebranding of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. FHFA oversees two government-sponsored enterprises currently held in conservatorship, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The two currently buy many U.S. loans and potentially could launch a new stock offering. )All three major credit reporting agencies have taken steps to respond, with TransUnion offering a discount for use of VantageScore 4.0. The move underscores past reports of VantageScore's growth in its low mortgage market share, with the company noting it grew 74% in the past year. Competitor FICO also has reported gains as the credit score providers and the government-related loan buyers' plans for adopting advanced metrics have moved forward.While the GSEs are still in the process of adopting advanced scores, mortgage companies can opt to use them for loans made in the private market, such as those made outside the typical qualified mortgage definition.VantageScore involves a collaboration between the major credit-reporting agencies.. It has some protocols for walling itself off from their influence.As FICO has released a new pricing program, Equifax and Experian also have launched incentives for use of VantageScore 4.0.

The Treasury Department and several other federal agencies told a US judge that her order temporarily halting layoffs tied to the government shutdown doesn't apply to more than 2,000 employees who have already received firing notices.In sworn declarations filed Friday, officials with the departments of the Treasury, Health and Human Services and Homeland Security said their reductions-in-force, or RIFs, didn't affect programs or activities involving members of the unions that had sued and won a temporary restraining order from the judge. Earlier this week, US District Judge Susan Illston in San Francisco ordered more than 30 agencies not to act on layoff notices they'd sent out or to issue new ones while she decides whether to impose a longer-term block. Illston said that, at this early stage in the legal fight, the unions appeared likely to win their claim that the administration lacked legal authority to use the budget impasse as a springboard for permanent personnel cuts.At a hearing Friday afternoon, Illston agreed to expand her TRO to add more federal worker unions after their lawyers said there's an "urgent" need to prevent imminent layoffs and complained that the Trump administration is "too narrowly" interpreting who is protected from RIFs. Illston clarified her previous order to make clear that members of the unions can't be laid off for the time being even if the administration no longer recognizes those unions as collective bargaining units — which is the subject of another legal dispute.A lawyer for the unions sparred with an attorney for the administration over whether the Department of Interior may be poised to issue new layoff notices early next week to as many as 1,500 people.Elizabeth Hedges, who represents the Office of Management and Budget, said she was not personally aware of any further shutdown-related RIFs. She sought to reassure the judge that the government is trying to comply with her order, even as union lawyer Danielle Leonard alleged that the government is playing "hide the ball" with its layoff plans.Illston advised Hedges to "err on the side of caution" and urge her clients to be "careful" not to violate the TRO.The administration previously told the judge that Treasury had issued 1,377 reduction-in-force notices since the shutdown began Oct. 1. In the latest filing, though, an official stated that none of those fell within the types of programs, projects or activities spelled out in Illston's order.Treasury dismissals were concentrated largely at the Internal Revenue Service, the department's biggest bureau, including IT and Large Business and International Division workers, according to earlier court filings. The firings also wiped out the staff of Treasury's Community Development Financial Institution Fund, which supports financial services in disadvantaged areas. Congressional Republicans have urged the White House to reinstate the fund's employees.Health and Human Services initiated layoffs for 982 employees, but an official said in a Friday declaration that those employees were in "operating and staff divisions" that lacked union bargaining units, so they weren't covered by Illston's order.The administration identified 54 layoffs at the Homeland Security Department, but an official offered a similar explanation for why those aren't blocked in a Friday declaration.A Homeland Security Department spokesperson declined to comment. A Health and Human Services spokesperson declined to comment. A Treasury spokesperson didn't immediately respond to a request for comment, nor did a spokesperson for the unions that sued.The case is American Federation of Government Employees, AFL-CIO v. Office of Management and Budget, 25-cv-8302, US District Court, Northern District of California (San Francisco).

Two large Manhattan office delinquencies fueled a double-digit increase in the overall delinquency rate in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for September, according to Fitch Ratings.Overall, new 60-day-plus delinquencies totaled $2 billion, up from $1.69 billion in August, Fitch said. Maturity defaults accounted for half, or 51% ($1.05 billion) of new delinquencies, while the rest were term defaults.Delinquencies that were resolved decreased to $964 million in September, down from $2.18 million in August, for deals that the rating agency assesses. Loans in special servicing across Fitch's entire commercial real estate coverage was $36.0 billion, representing 5.9% of its CMBS universe, the rating agency said.For September's results, the most acute problems seemed to stemmed from two office deals, Fitch analysts said.A loan on 261 Fifth Avenue, a 446,820-square-foot office property, was transferred to special servicing after its September 2025 maturity default. Although the loan had been performing, the borrower was unable to pay it off because of poor refinance metrics, according to analysts at Fitch Ratings.Another loan, backed by a 136,886-square-foot, retail and office space near Union Square in Manhattan faced a slew of challenges, including property tax arrears, a transfer to special servicing in March 2024 and then foreclosure and receivership proceedings that started in February 2025. Even more recently the loss of a major tenant was a blow to occupancy, Fitch said.The loans on 261 Fifth Avenue and 90 Fifth Avenue are securitized as pari passu companion notes in several CMBS deals, Wasiq Chughtai, Fitch Ratings' director of CMBS research for North America told Asset Securitization Report via email. Those deals include the BACM 2015-UBS7 for 261 Fifth Avenue and GSMS 2017-GS7, and series GS8 for 90 Fifth Avenue, according to Fitch.Compared to one year ago, overall CMBS delinquencies re up 21 basis points, driven mainly by office loans. In that sector, delinquencies are up 227 basis points year-over year, Chughtai said.A wary industry viewHeading into the securitization industry's ABS East conference in Miami, industry professionals also expressed concern about how consumer-oriented sectors could respond to weaker spending and policy uncertainty."Still elevated interest rates and lower office valuations in the lower-tier segment will continue to drive refinancing challenges," Chughtai said. "We expect more transfers to special servicing, maturity-related defaults and continued loan extensions for borrower-supported assets."

The Mortgage Bankers Association is warning lenders of wavering productivity and stubbornly high expenses amid what should be steadily climbing production volume.The trade group's top economists Sunday at the MBA Annual conference in Las Vegas discussed the macroeconomic headwinds that they suggested shouldn't dramatically affect new mortgage volume. The economists are anticipating an 8% increase in both origination dollars and units next year. There will be growth, however weak, said Mike Fratantoni, the MBA's chief economist and senior vice president of research and business development. While the trade group doesn't foresee dramatic interest rate declines, growing inventory should help prohibitive home prices come down and drive activity. More concerning is the finding that productivity is lower than it was in 2018, said Marina Walsh, the MBA's vice president of industry analysis, research and economics. While the dollar amount is similar between now and then, the loan count is substantially different. "It's not that workers have become more inefficient," said Walsh. "There's a lot of work that is being done, and it's not resulting in a closed loan, for whatever reason." She pointed to borrowers applying with multiple lenders and walking away, leaving originators with time and resources sunk into deals that never close.  Depositories pulled through just 55% of mortgage applications in the first half of 2025, while nonbanks closed 69%, both figures in decline since 2022. "So something with technology, some way, it would be very nice to put the brakes on those applications that are not going to close and not incur those costs," added Walsh. The industry recently recorded its best production profits since late 2021, although loans still cost over $11,000 to produce. Besides heavy fulfillment and sales expenses, large banks are also burdened with heavy corporate costs, Walsh said. The economist added that the MBA has heard of firms not adjusting large allocations stemming from the busy 2020 and 2021 period. Expenses include headcounts that have stabilized at an average of 315 employees per company in the second quarter. Fratantoni said the impact of artificial intelligence hasn't yet shown up in larger economic productivity data. How the MBA sees macroeconomic concernsBeyond larger financial data suggesting slower gross domestic product growth in 2026, and a larger effective tariff rate this year, Fratantoni warned of America's declining population. The Congressional Budget Office has targeted 2031 when there will be more deaths than births; and immigration could be net negative this year. "We're making 30-year loans, and we're building houses that are going to last a number of decades, right?" said Fratantoni. "And so slower population growth, or maybe even at some point population decline, is going to have an impact on real estate markets. We should probably start thinking about that."While delinquencies are rising on credit card, auto loan and student loan debt, late mortgage payments aren't as prevalent. Federal Housing Administration-backed loan delinquencies have been as high as levels in 2013, however, and non-qualified mortgage late payments are ticking up, said Joel Kan, MBA vice president and deputy chief economist. Homeowner headwinds and tailwindsRising taxes and insurance still weigh on homeowners, and the median monthly mortgage payment is just under $2,100. That cost is down from a peak from April 2024, as rates' steady decline have eased homeowners' burdens. While homeowners nationwide owe $14.5 trillion, they tout $35.8 trillion in equity, according to data from the Federal Reserve. The MBA also identified a rising market for adjustable-rate mortgages. Today 5-year and 7-year ARMs have rates around 80 basis points to 100 basis points lower than conventional 30-year FRMs. "We're also seeing more refinancing into ARMs," said Kan. "And it just came out from a few other meetings, where people were noting this too — borrowers [are] moving from a fixed-rate loan into an adjustable rate."

TransUnion is the latest company to make a move in the credit score war between VantageScore and Fair Isaac Corp.'s FICO score, following partners Experian and Equifax.Transunion will offer VantageScore 4.0, a credit scoring model, for $4 in 2026. Experian will provide it for free to its clients indefinitely and Equifax will charge $4.50 through the end of 2027."Our approach reaffirms TransUnion's commitment to expanding affordable mortgage credit by delivering best-in-class credit information combined with easy-to-use tools for consumers and lenders," TransUnion President and CEO Chris Cartwright said in a press release Friday.Now, lenders can use VantageScore to include trended and alternative data at the beginning stages of a mortgage application, which will allow 33 million credit-invisible consumers to be scored and millions more to gain access to homeownership, the release said."Trended and alternative credit data provides the most complete picture of consumers, and TransUnion's new approach unlocks this vital data in the mortgage lending industry, benefitting homebuyers, lenders and investors," said Satyan Merchant, senior vice president and mortgage business leader at TransUnion.TransUnion will also offer multi-year pricing for credit report and VantageScore 4.0 to help lenders forecast and manage their business and a free VantageScore 4.0 simulator. This is all available through the company's new TrulQ analytics platform, the release said.The major credit bureaus' moves come as a response to FICO's new program model announced earlier this month, which lets mortgage resellers bypass the three companies and receive scores directly to avoid additional markup fees. The new program allows resellers to purchase scores for $4.95, the same price it bills credit bureaus, and costs an additional $33 if the loan is closed and avoids reissuance charges lenders previously paid. But after credit-bureau markups, the average cost is about $10 per score, which is why TransUnion's release emphasized its "significant discount to the FICO score," which "burdened" the industry.The public feud between the credit score providers heated up in July, when Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will allow lenders to use VantageScore 4.0 when submitting loans to them, instead of just FICO's. Pulte said in an X post that this would increase competition in the credit score ecosystem.

International law firm Seyfarth Shaw just added a three-lawyer team to its structured finance practice, led Henry Morriello who joins in New York and becomes co-chair of the firm's structured finance practice.Karsten Giesecke and Michael Karol join Morriello at Seyfarth Shaw, as counsel, according to a statement from the firm.Previously, Morriello has chaired several practices at top firms, including Arnold & Porter's Structured Finance and Derivatives practice and its transportation finance practice, according to a statement from Seyfarth Shaw.He also chaired the global finance practice at Kaye Scholer, before the firm's 20127 merger with Arnold & Porter, Seyfarth said."Henry's reputation in the structured finance and securitization space is well-known," according to a statement from Andrew Lucano, chair of Seyfarth's corporate department. "He brings deep technical skill, trusted client relationships, and a collaborative mindset that aligns perfectly with our culture."Gieseke brings more than three decades of industry experience in complex structured products, particularly residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities, and securitizations involving various other asset-classes, such as student loans, franchise loans and trade receivables.Karol's focus is on complex structured transactions, including securitization of auto loans and leases, mortgages, trade finance assets, student loan and a variety of esoteric assets.Lorie Almon, Seyfarth's chair and managing partner added that the team is a key piece in the firm's strategic expansion plans, and especially strengthens the firm's finance practices within its corporate department.

In this week's banking news roundup: Flagstar's shareholders approved a plan to merge its holding company into the bank; Huntington tapped a new chief auditor, along with two new business leaders; First Foundation hired a new chief credit officer; and more.

Cornerstone Capital Bancorp, a one-time independent mortgage banker that acquired a depository, has agreed to purchase another bank, Peoples Bancorp of Lubbock, Texas.Terms of the transaction were not disclosed."With one of the strongest capital positions in our markets and a deep base of low-cost core funding, we are well positioned for meaningful organic growth," Scott Almy, president and CEO of Cornerstone, said in a press release.In a deal announced in June 2021 and closed in October of the following year, Cornerstone Home Lending, headquartered in Houston, acquired Roscoe (Texas) State Bank. After the deal closed, Cornerstone Capital Bank SSB was formed.After it acquired Roscoe, Cornerstone noted several changes to its status, including that its loan officers no longer needed to be licensed.The Secure and Fair Enforcement for Mortgage Licensing Act of 2008, also known as the SAFE Act, created dual standards for working loan officers based on who their employer is. Only those who work for independent mortgage bankers and mortgage brokers need to have state licenses while also being registered in the Nationwide Multi-State Licensing System.Those MLOs working at depositories only need NMLS registration.Cornerstone viewed Peoples Bank as a way to lower funding costs, increase earnings and expand portfolio lending, moves it said would enhance its mortgage and servicing divisions and help it offer more value-added services to clients.Cornerstone had brought its servicing function in-house in April 2022, after the Roscoe deal was announced but before it closed.Banks are able to use deposits to fund mortgages and because of their balance sheet, have the option to retain loans in their portfolio.Another listed rationale for the deal is it would put Cornerstone in the top 20 among all Texas banks with less than $10 billion in assets, while reducing cost of deposits by approximately 68 basis points.The combination would have $3.1 billion of assets.The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of next year, at which time the acquired institution will be part of a new Community Banking Division under the name Peoples Bank, a division of Cornerstone Capital Bank."For many years, Peoples has focused on building strong relationships and supporting the communities we serve," said Larry Allen, its chairman and CEO, in a press release. "This merger is a natural extension of that mission."Once the deal is completed, besides joining the boards of the holding company and Cornerstone Capital Bank, Allen will become area chairman, Peoples Bank.Cornerstone was advised by Piper Sandler as financial advisor and Otteson Shapiro as legal counsel, while Peoples' financial advisor was Hillworth Bank Partners and Fenimore Kay Harrison LLP as its legal counsel.