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The "Sell America" trade that gripped markets this month has left a potentially lasting dent in investors' willingness to hold the US government's longest-maturity debt, a mainstay of its deficit-financing toolkit.For bond managers at BlackRock Inc., Brandywine Global Investment Management and Vanguard Group Inc., the problem is that as President Donald Trump approaches his 100th day in office, he has generated a growing list of unknowns, forcing traders to focus on a broad array of issues beyond just the likely path of interest rates.To name a few: What do Trump's trade war, tax-cut agenda and scattergun policymaking mean for already weakening economic growth, sticky inflation and massive fiscal shortfalls? Will he again threaten to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell? Is he actively seeking a weaker dollar?The result is a heightened notion of risk that's leading bond buyers to question the traditional haven status of US government debt and require higher yields on longer maturities. By one measure, that added cushion, which traders dub the term premium, is around the highest since 2014. "We're in a new world order," said Jack McIntyre, who with his team oversees $63 billion at Brandywine. "Even if Trump backpedals on the tariffs, I think uncertainty levels are still going to be elevated. So that means term premium stays elevated."Of course, some of the angst around Treasuries could well fade should Trump strike trade deals or continue to signal that he's wary of a full-fledged rout in bonds. But as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent prepares to unveil how the government plans to fund the latest borrowing on Wednesday, he faces the added task of calming investors grappling with a growing host of concerns. All the uncertainty is leading McIntyre to stay roughly neutral to his benchmark. It's also changing how he sees the long bond behaving in the event of an economic slowdown. In a nutshell, he says yields would remain higher than he'd otherwise expect.No FlightIt's not as if investors are fleeing Treasuries wholesale. JPMorgan Asset Management sees them as a better bet than European government bonds. And this month's 30-year Treasury auction showed that there's appetite for the maturity — at the right price. The result allayed fears of a buyers' strike, and long-bond yields have eased back from their recent peak. Sentiment, however, remains fragile. For example, while Trump last week said he had "no intention" of firing Powell, his criticism of the Fed chair leaves some investors worrying about the central bank's independence. Pacific Investment Management Co., which likened this month's episode of triple-weakening in the dollar, US stocks and Treasuries to something one might expect in emerging markets, has also been buying Treasuries. But it's been limiting how far out the yield curve it goes. The $2 trillion bond manager currently favors maturities from five to 10 years.There are other signs of investor anxiety around the long bond: After adjusting for inflation, 30-year yields this month reached the highest since the financial crisis. Although they've since receded, they remain higher than when Trump announced his plan for sweeping tariffs on April 2. Yields on US 30-year nominal debt were poised to snap a four-day run of declines, rising four basis points to 4.74% on Monday.For Vanguard, there's scope for the extra insurance being built into longer maturities to swell further, especially if widening federal deficits lead to more bond issuance."Term premium is no longer low, but you can't make a case that it's historically high," said Rebecca Venter, senior fixed-income product manager at the roughly $10 trillion asset manager. "When you see the fiscal risks in the background, term premium can build over time." Vanguard expects US growth below 1% this year, which would be the weakest since 2020, and Venter said "that does not bode well for the US budget deficit."Next ChapterWhen the Treasury releases its latest bond issuance plans this week, Wall Street expects steady auction sizes over the next three months. With Republicans debating how to pay for their tax-cut bill, the fiscal story is the next chapter for the term premium. One reason a fatter premium matters is that every fraction of a percentage point in extra yield counts for the government at a time when it's paying upwards of $1 trillion per year to service its debt.At BlackRock, which oversees almost $12 trillion, the broad slide across US asset classes earlier this month magnified its concerns around the government's finances post-pandemic, and how US bonds were vulnerable to shifting investor confidence.The selloff in US markets "suggests a desire for more compensation for risk and brought that fragile equilibrium into sharp focus," BlackRock Investment Institute said in a report. George Catrambone at DWS Americas sees how the term premium might recede, but only so far, given all the shifting signals out of the White House on tariffs and other policies. "Once greater clarity is given and agreements are reached, I'd expect term premium to abate," said the firm's head of fixed income. "Although not back to the lows of the past decade as fiscal will be an ever-present concern."

The Top Producers Survey is open to individual loan officers who work at depository, nonbank and mortgage brokerage firms in the United States. The Top Producers survey has been in existence for 27 years and is the successor to those conducted by Broker magazine and Origination News (former National Mortgage News sister publications) as well as Mortgage Originator Magazine, which Arizent owns the content rights to.Submissions were made by the participants or their representatives. The information was verified to the best of our ability but National Mortgage News cannot claim the absolute veracity of the data. Some entries might have been removed due to submission errors or following the check on the data.Check back on National Mortgage News for Top Producers 150-51, 50-1 and the full list to be published in the following days. Additional cuts of data, including top women, top originators by region and by loan type will be published shortly thereafter.

Digital mortgage loan closings have become ubiquitous, if not quite universal, in the real estate finance business as 90% of lenders state they offer some form of the process to their borrowers.That is an improvement from 74% in 2023, according to a study conducted by National Mortgage News and its parent company Arizent for Snapdocs of 100 lenders in February and March. Snapdocs was not identified as the sponsor of the research.Digital closings have been around for a long time, noted Todd Maki, vice president of customer experience at Snapdocs. Garth Graham, now of Stratmor Group, did a pilot digital closing on his own mortgage in 1999, Maki pointed out. So even though they have been possible for several decades, digital closings are still in their growth phase, he said. The needs created during the pandemic so real estate transactions could take place has served as a catalyst for further growth.In looking at the survey results, "The biggest surprise is the gap in what's being offered [in terms of digital closings] to the level of adoption in the industry," Maki said. It is also a matter of being able to meet customer expectations at a time when other parts of the economy are digitizing.Of the lenders which do offer digital closings, several have multiple formats available. The most cited, by 61% of the respondents, is for a hybrid closing combined with the use of an e-note, with 55% have a stand-alone hybrid closing available. Remote online notary was available at 25% while a "wet" closing was used by 37%; in this scenario, the borrower receives and reviews the documents electronically but a physical meeting takes place to sign and notarize them.In the 2023 survey, 44% of lenders had e-note capabilities, while 11% offered RON. On the other hand, 26% had no digital offerings while 53% of the respondents' had a wet closing process.Still, actual usage of digital closing proceedings still lagged in popularity. A minority percentage, 31%, confirmed that six-in-10 or more of their loans closed electronically; at the 80% mark, the share slipped to 14%."Lenders who are not achieving high adoption levels often miss out on the full value of their investment," a comment in the report added.Cost was the biggest barrier to adoption of e-closings, cited by half of all respondents. Meanwhile, 42% found the lack of adoption by other stakeholders in the process was an impediment, followed by 41% who claimed "issues with digital closing technology."Yet other studies have shown that eClosings actually reduce transaction costs. A 2022 finding from Notarize put the cost savings for lenders at $444 per loan.Still, even with the cost conundrum, 60% of the non-digital lenders plan to adopt some form of this technology in the future.For 2025, 48% of the lenders said automation and artificial intelligence integration were their No. 1 priority in their general technology goals."There are different types of AI that are appropriate for different tasks," Maki said. "Particularly in mortgage lending, particularly in closing related and back office tasks, the accuracy and precision of AI models needs to be extremely high because we're dealing with transactions where errors can prevent a successful close [and] can cost significant sums of money [and more], which is why there's such a focus in the industry on ensuring accuracy of documents right and reducing errors."Snapdocs, for example, has a variety of AI technologies as part of its offerings, including those that help to reduce the "stare and compare" for loan documents, reducing errors.When it comes to digital closings, 49% wanted to have an increased application of the hybrid process in their portfolio. Next on the list, implementing a new digital closing technology was one of the primary goals for 44%. Maximizing e-note adoption and offering RON were each named by 41% of those asked.

Digital mortgage loan closings have become ubiquitous, if not quite universal, in the real estate finance business as 90% of lenders state they offer some form of the process to their borrowers.That is an improvement from 74% in 2023, according to a study conducted by National Mortgage News and its parent company Arizent for Snapdocs of 100 lenders in February and March. Snapdocs was not identified as the sponsor of the research.Digital closings have been around for a long time, noted Todd Maki, vice president of customer experience at Snapdocs. Garth Graham, now of Stratmor Group, did a pilot digital closing on his own mortgage in 1999, Maki pointed out. So even though they have been possible for several decades, digital closings are still in their growth phase, he said. The needs created during the pandemic so real estate transactions could take place has served as a catalyst for further growth.In looking at the survey results, "The biggest surprise is the gap in what's being offered [in terms of digital closings] to the level of adoption in the industry," Maki said. It is also a matter of being able to meet customer expectations at a time when other parts of the economy are digitizing.Of the lenders which do offer digital closings, several have multiple formats available. The most cited, by 61% of the respondents, is for a hybrid closing combined with the use of an e-note, with 55% have a stand-alone hybrid closing available. Remote online notary was available at 25% while a "wet" closing was used by 37%; in this scenario, the borrower receives and reviews the documents electronically but a physical meeting takes place to sign and notarize them.In the 2023 survey, 44% of lenders had e-note capabilities, while 11% offered RON. On the other hand, 26% had no digital offerings while 53% of the respondents' had a wet closing process.Still, actual usage of digital closing proceedings still lagged in popularity. A minority percentage, 31%, confirmed that six-in-10 or more of their loans closed electronically; at the 80% mark, the share slipped to 14%."Lenders who are not achieving high adoption levels often miss out on the full value of their investment," a comment in the report added.Cost was the biggest barrier to adoption of e-closings, cited by half of all respondents. Meanwhile, 42% found the lack of adoption by other stakeholders in the process was an impediment, followed by 41% who claimed "issues with digital closing technology."Yet other studies have shown that eClosings actually reduce transaction costs. A 2022 finding from Notarize put the cost savings for lenders at $444 per loan.Still, even with the cost conundrum, 60% of the non-digital lenders plan to adopt some form of this technology in the future.For 2025, 48% of the lenders said automation and artificial intelligence integration were their No. 1 priority in their general technology goals."There are different types of AI that are appropriate for different tasks," Maki said. "Particularly in mortgage lending, particularly in closing related and back office tasks, the accuracy and precision of AI models needs to be extremely high because we're dealing with transactions where errors can prevent a successful close [and] can cost significant sums of money [and more], which is why there's such a focus in the industry on ensuring accuracy of documents right and reducing errors."Snapdocs, for example, has a variety of AI technologies as part of its offerings, including those that help to reduce the "stare and compare" for loan documents, reducing errors.When it comes to digital closings, 49% wanted to have an increased application of the hybrid process in their portfolio. Next on the list, implementing a new digital closing technology was one of the primary goals for 44%. Maximizing e-note adoption and offering RON were each named by 41% of those asked.

Maryland has relieved the most pressing industry worries about recent licensing added for mortgage assignees with a new exemption for some entities. But certain secondary market participants should still conduct legal reviews of whether they have additional responsibilities.Gov. Wes Moore signed legislation this week specifically exempting passive mortgage-backed securities trusts from the new licensing set to be enforced starting this summer. The move is significant because the trust component of the licensing mandate was the biggest concern for the industry, said Stephen Ornstein, an attorney at Alston & Bird, and author of a report on the new law."The urgent issue was not having to get trusts licensed. In the residential lending space it's unheard of," he told this publication.What's still at stakeThe trust exemption added under Maryland's new Secondary Market Stability Act doesn't mean the industry can ignore the new licensing enforcement that's been pending altogether.The exemption that Moore signed into law turned out to be narrower than an earlier version, according to a report by Krista Cooley, Francis Doorley, and Daniel Pearson, all of whom are attorneys at law firm Mayer Brown.The exemption is specifically for "a trust that acquires or is assigned a mortgage loan and does not make mortgage loans, act as a mortgage broker or mortgage servicer or engage in the servicing of mortgage loans," they said.State-level licensing for mortgage assignees that are not trusts does exist in other jurisdictions is not consistent throughout all 50 jurisdictions. State servicing licensure beyond traditional bank regulation has been spreading throughout the United States for roughly the last decade.Industry reactionA coalition of housing and securities groups that included the Structured Finance Association had responded to the inclusion of MBS trusts in Maryland licensing earlier this year with alarm upon seeing it interrupt both loan purchases and foreclosure by their members.The coalition had argued that the court decision that led to the Maryland Office of Financial Regulation's licensing action should not have been so broadly interpreted.The licensing guidance originally stemmed from a state appeals-court decision in the lawsuit Estate of Brown v. Ward in which a home-equity line of credit foreclosure got dismissed because the assignee, which was as trust, did not have an installment loan license.Maryland's Office of Financial Regulation interpreted lender responsibilities to extend even further to even closed-end first mortgages in response to the lawsuit."The Maryland legislation exempts passive trusts holding Maryland mortgages from the licensing requirements promulgated via emergency regulation by the state's Office of Financial regulation. That represents a positive development for the Maryland mortgage market, and resolves the principal concerns of secondary market participants," said Dallin Merrill, director of MBS policy at the Structured Finance Association, in an email."At the same time, the expanded licensing requirements will now apply to ownership structures other than passive trusts. And there are still some open questions about the applicability of the licensing regulations in other contexts. We expect to continue to work with the Maryland office of financial regulation to resolve outstanding concerns and questions," he added.Private mortgage market ramificationsThe new exemption came on top of an earlier clarification in which the OFR indicated government-related instrumentalities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were not subject to the licensing requirement.Maryland had added that exemption earlier this year, according to a report by law firm Sheppard Mullin.That development was significant because government-related entities like Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie Mae currently play a central role in the U.S. mortgage market.A broader exemption for trusts in the smaller private MBS market also was important given that the Trump administration has been generally scaling back the public sector. There also are plans to eventually release Fannie and Freddie from government conservatorship.

Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg Liquidity constraints in both stock and bond markets could jeopardize financial stability, the Federal Reserve warned on Friday.In its latest financial stability report, the central bank found that liquidity — which measures the ease of buying and selling assets — was at or near historic lows for both equities and U.S. Treasuries, raising the prospect of price volatility and market destabilization. Lackluster liquidity is not necessarily a new development. The Fed has been flagging constraints in the Treasury market in its stability reports for several years. Likewise, data in the latest report, released Friday afternoon, shows equity market liquidity has been below its long-run average since 2018, though it has been on a steeper downward trajectory since the beginning of this year.The report, which includes data collected up to the close of business on April 11, notes that both Treasury and stock markets remained functional in the immediate aftermath of President Donald Trump's April 2 tariff announcement."In early April, yields on Treasury securities exhibited considerable volatility, which contributed to a deterioration in market liquidity," the report states. "Nonetheless, amid this increase in volatility, trading remained orderly, and markets continued to function without serious disruption."Despite the sell-offs that followed the tariff rollout, stocks and other financial assets remain priced notably above their fundamental values, according to the Fed's report, with values exceeding 12-month profit forecasts. Similarly, residential real estate values — measured in relation to 10-year Treasuries and based on rental equivalencies — were also elevated, nearing peaks not seen since before the subprime mortgage crisis.Commercial real estate prices, on the other hand, showed signs of stabilizing albeit at levels that are low by historical standards. The report also flagged the potential for a wave of refinancing activity that could necessitate substantial write-downs. "Refinancing risk remained a potential vulnerability for CRE prices. Industry estimates suggest that about 20 percent of all outstanding CRE loans, just shy of $1 trillion, will mature in 2025," the report states.Another area of notable risk in the biannual report was the use of leverage by financial institutions. Specifically, it pointed to hedge funds, which are financing their investments at a historically high rate — largely driven by borrowing done by a handful of very large firms. The report noted that leverage among this group might have been reduced materially in recent weeks as hedge funds involved in basis trades have unwound their positions to deleverage their portfolios. The report stated that leverage within the banking system is low, adding that increased levels of capital have made banks a source of strength for the broader financial system. Household and business balance sheets were also in good shape, with collective borrowing by those two groups trending toward historic lows relative to gross domestic product.As is customary, the report also included results of a survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on the risks in financial market that participants are most concerned about. Global trade was far and away viewed as the biggest concern, with 73% of respondents citing it, up from 33% in the prior survey. The next most cited concern was the national debt at 50%, down from 54% in November, when it was seen as the top threat. Half of respondents listed policy uncertainty, while 41% said persistent inflation and 36% cited a risk asset price correction. Treasury market function rounded out the top six with 27% of respondents including it as a chief concern, up from 17% last fall. The sample size of the survey is small, consisting of 22 contacts at broker-dealers, investment funds, research and advisory firms and academic institutions. Most of the responses were collected before Trump's April 2 tariff announcement.

If the last few days are any indication, mortgage rates want a trade deal.They don’t like tariffs, trade wars, or any of the uncertainty that comes with them.Instead, they crave clarity so bonds can settle down and provide direction for the market.So if you’re rooting for a lower mortgage rate anytime soon, you should also be rooting for a trade deal.And this week, there have finally been some positive signs on that front.The News on the Trade War Has Turned PositiveThe latest news on the global trade war is positive, at least, if you believe the reporting.Per Axios, Trump said “China called” and that a trade deal was only “weeks away.”Sounds promising, but apparently China denied that and said the United States needs to make the first move.At the same time, it has been reported that China has eased up on some tariffs, and is pondering exemptions on 131 product categories included on a list that has been circulating among some businesses and trade groups.The takeaway here, for now, is that we’ve moved into a new phase of negotiation, or at least not a ratcheting up of reciprocal tariffs anymore.While it’s all speculative and debated, the two countries are at least not making matters worse, which could be at least be considered a small victory.The 10-year bond yield, which correlates well with 30-year fixed mortgage rates, has been steadily dropping throughout the week.At last glance, it stood at roughly 4.25%, which is down from weekly highs around 4.45%.That has translated to slightly lower mortgage rates, with the 30-year falling from above 7% to closer to 6.875%.It’s not a huge move lower, but it’s going in the right direction again. And if nothing else, it’s a psychological win to see a 6 instead of a 7.This is especially true right now, with the spring home buying season in full swing.The latest numbers out of the National Association of Realtors weren’t great, with existing home sales down 5.9% in March from a month earlier (and 2.4% lower than a year ago).Had we not seen a slew of tariffs and a wider trade war, there’s a decent chance those home sales figures would have been higher.NAR also noted that the inventory of unsold existing homes increased a healthy 8.1% from the previous month to 1.33 million units as of the end of March.That’s the equivalent of 4.0 months of supply at the current monthly sales pace, which is more or less pretty normal.So the housing market is becoming more balanced nationally, and you’re seeing more sellers negotiate with buyers, lower their prices, offer seller concessions, etc.There Will Be Another Twist in the TaleThing is, I don’t believe we’ve seen the end of the trade war, or the hostilities involved.There’s a very good chance the parties involved will get into again before we see light at the end of the tunnel.The same goes for attacks on Fed Chair Powell, whose job security was threatened before President Trump eventually took a softer stance and walked back his remarks.When it comes down to it, I expect this stuff to go on until at least the end of the second quarter.That means another two months of rhetoric, back and forths, and high levels of uncertainty and volatility.This will make it difficult for mortgage rates to rally much if at all, and they could see a retracement back to the 7s if things really unravel again.Ideally that doesn’t happen, but chances are it will if the very recent past is any indication.If you’re a prospective home buyer, you should pretty much bank on it just to be safe.And if you’re on the edge of qualifying for a mortgage, perhaps input a higher mortgage rate to stay within budget.Or alternatively, enter a lower maximum purchase price when home shopping in case rates unexpectedly spike again.I’m still optimistic that mortgage rates will fall later in the year, as my 2025 mortgage rate predictions indicate.But confidence can’t be all that high given current events and the potential for some massive changes to the global trade picture.There’s also the question of rising national debt and bond issuance that may accompany proposed tax cuts, which could happen as soon as July 4th.That might be the next shoe to drop if and when we get through this trade debacle.But don’t forget the economic data, which will continue to matter regardless.We have the PCE report next week, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, followed by the monthly jobs report.Pay close attention to those two reports if you want a clue as to where mortgage rates may go next.Read on: Watch Out for a Mortgage Rate That Ends in .875 Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.Latest posts by Colin Robertson (see all)

It may be "business as usual" at Newrez following its rivals' recent blockbuster merger, but preparations are underway that could see the lender separating from parent Rithm Capital by year's end.Still, Rocket Cos.' acquisition of Mr. Cooper, the country's leading servicer, will open up opportunities for business growth, company leaders noted. "It's going to be business as usual as we go forward," said Rithm Capital President and CEO Michael Nierenberg in the company's first-quarter earnings call.  "While saying that, I do think as a result of the Cooper-Rocket deal, there'll be an opportunity to pick up some servicing as a result of the sheer size of the combination of those platforms," he continued. Growth in subservicing operations is also not out of the question. "Our pipeline is active," according to Newrez President Baron Silverstein."They had a lot of subservicing," Silverstein said, referring to Mr. Cooper. "Those clients are obviously evaluating their alternatives and options as well."New Rez origination and servicing activityThe executives' comments came as Newrez reported growth in both servicing and originations that led to net income of $146.7 million in the first quarter, with the total driven lower by fair value losses and related hedge impacts on its portfolio from a volatile rate environment. The latest number came in 53.6% under the previous quarter's $316 million profit, while year over year, it fell 53% from $311.9 million. "Our multichannel strategy allows us to optimize opportunities in all market environments, and all of our channels remain profitable in the first quarter," Silverstein said. First-quarter lending production totaled $11.8 billion, which was down from $17.3 billion over the prior three months. The number represented growth on a year-over-year basis, though, increasing from $10.8 billion.Gain on sale for Newrez originations improved to 137 basis points compared to 131 and 129 bps on a quarterly and annual basis. Unpaid balance within its servicing portfolio grew to $844.9 billion in the most recent quarter, up incrementally from $843.9 billion three months earlier and $647.5 million over the same period in 2024, a year that saw Rithm closed on its acquisition of Computershare Mortgage Services. Of the current balance, approximately $254 billion comes from third-party servicing. Total Newrez quarterly revenue equaled $498.8 million, which was lower by 70% and 35.8% from $1.66 billion in fourth quarter 2024 and $776.7 million a year ago.  The future of Rithm and NewrezMortgage banking activity helped propel Rithm to profits of $36.5 million in the first quarter across the company, which also includes real estate and investment operations. Net income declined after clocking in at $263.2 million three months earlier.The company reported profits of $261.6 million in the first quarter last year.As Rithm expanded its business scope over the past few years, Nierenberg regularly remarked that the real estate investment trust and asset manager was "extremely undervalued" based on its stock price, especially when compared to its peers. The company, which trades as RITM on the New York Stock Exchange, opened at $10.41 on Friday morning.  Unlocking Rithm's potential has been a top priority for Nierenberg, leading him to look for avenues to increase shareholder value. Among the strategies is the separation of certain assets, including Newrez. Proposed at various times in the company's history, Rithm most recently filed an S-1 for a possible Newrez public offering in 2023.Other possibilities Rithm's CEO mentioned include moving the company to an externally managed structure or forming a separate legal entity, known as a C corporation. "There's a number of different things that we look at daily," Nierenberg said, "I'm hopeful that we'll have some kind of capital action by the end of '25."Supporting the prospects of a possible Newrez spinoff were analysts at investment banking firm BTIG. "We've been bullish on the prospects for RITM to spin out or monetize its ~$4 billion of net capital in Newrez, mostly because we think the business has stronger and more stable value if it can flexibly retain earnings outside the current REIT structure," wrote Eric Hagen and Jake Katsikas in a research note published after the earnings call.Rithm also left the door open for more merger and acquisition activity this year, a strategy it has employed regularly over the past 10 years as it sought to expand beyond its origins as a REIT.  "This is not just to do deals. This is to figure out how we play on a much broader and bigger scale, because I do think you need to be bigger to compete with some of the very best asset management firms out there," Nierenberg said.

Newly retired, longtime housing economist Doug Duncan doesn't expect to quietly ride off into the sunset.      After making plans to leave Fannie Mae last summer after 16 years, Duncan announced his return to the workforce in 2025, filing paperwork in March to officially launch a new business registered as Duncanomics LLC.    Cade Martin/Cade Martin Photography Following a career that saw him serve as chief economist at Fannie Mae and previously, the Mortgage Bankers Association, Duncan expects the knowledge and expertise that comes from decades covering the housing market will continue to benefit lenders and related industries. In a wide-ranging recent interview with National Mortgage News, Duncan discussed the thought process that led to the start of the business, his definition of "retirement" and new goals going forward. He also offered thoughts on the developments he is watching in the current political and economic environment. Duncan's responses have been edited for length and clarity

The Department of Veterans Affairs will reduce some red tape around the broader process for working with distressed borrowers as it starts winding down one type of temporary assistance it has offered.Mortgage servicers will no longer have to follow the ordered "waterfall" of different options to try in an effort to get loans to reperform after a payment lapse once the Veterans Affairs Servicing Purchase Program ends, according to a circular the department released late Wednesday.The VA's directive opens up some discretion for housing finance companies when it comes to handling borrowers with loans with the VA's partial guarantee when there is a payment issue, but also indicates the traditional pattern of assistance remains relevant.Servicers "need not follow the review order outlined in the VA home retention waterfall" as of May 1. But they should "keep VA's preferred order of consideration in mind," according to the department.Both this part of the VA's circular and the broader context of other legalities will mean that in practice, mortgage professionals could stick pretty close to waterfall requirements when offering assistance — or at least may want the department's blessing before offering alternatives."The way I read it, this gets away from being overly regulated and prescriptive and pushes responsibility back to the servicers, but there are some concerns around that from a UDAP and fair servicing perspective," said Matt Tully, chief compliance officer for Sagent.While some Trump administration officials outside of the VA have signaled interest in being less directly involved in oversight of unfair or deceptive acts or practices, they've also made it clear mortgage companies need to continue following all existing legal mandates on the books."The laws are the laws until they're repealed," Tully said, noting that even when regulators reduce layers of oversight, mortgage companies can be wary of retroactive enforcement from a future administration that might be more proactive.The official directive the department put out in response to ending its waterfall and VASP offers specifics on what happens to borrowers in the midst of evaluation for the temporary last-resort assistance when May 1 arrives.New trial payment plans and VASP submissions will no longer be accepted starting that day. Trial payment plans already in progress and being used as intended could keep going if the department's finances hold out."VA will allow active TPPs to continue through Aug. 31, 2025, and will purchase successful loans subject to VA's determination that funds remain available," the circular said.The department's particular budget and structure have made it challenging to unwind temporary leeway it gave some borrowers on emergency basis to help them weather the pandemic, in particular a partial claim that allowed missed payments to be postponed via a second lien.When the VA partial claim abruptly ended in October 2022 due to budget concerns and the pandemic receding, there was an outcry around the fact there were tens of thousands of borrowers who qualified for it but no longer had access.VASP was introduced as an alternative in May of last year following a period where the department urged servicers to engage in a voluntary ban on foreclosures until the program could be stood up and used.The Mortgage Bankers Association has opposed the abrupt end of VASP given the way foreclosure starts spiked after the moratorium ended, calling for a more gradual offramp and a permanent partial claims program.Legislators like Rep. Derrick Van Orden, R-Wis., who was formerly part of an elite U.S. Navy force and a VA borrower, have shown interest in establishing permanent partial claims, but he also has shown concern about such programs' impact on the department's financial soundness.Van Orden has questioned whether VASP has a public purpose, could be open to abuse by borrowers and characterized it as addressing a business risk the mortgage industry should be responsible for. But MBA President and CEO Bob Broeksmit has a different view."Any characterization of VASP as a 'lender bailout' is patently false and entirely inappropriate, given that the mortgage industry voluntarily honored a foreclosure moratorium for months until the VA was able to provide VASP," Broeksmit said in a statement earlier this month.