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Roubini backs popular bond bet to hedge Trump-fueled price shock
(Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini is preparing for a world in which yields on long-dated US bonds will edge higher as Donald Trump's policy agenda — including his support for looser monetary policy and higher tariffs — risks eroding price stability.The economist, who runs Roubini Macro Associates, is positioning for a curve steepener, a popular Treasuries trade where the gap between long- and short-dated yields widens. Dubbed the "Trump trade" by some, the strategy stands to benefit from interest-rate cuts."All the inflationary shocks that had spread before implied that the long bond yields are going to be higher, both in nominal terms and in real terms," Roubini said on Bloomberg's ETF IQ Wednesday. "Therefore, you need an alternative — an alternative that combines things that do well when inflation is higher."Roubini, who built his reputation by correctly warning of a disaster ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, expects traditional haven trades, like the popular 60/40 portfolio and long-duration US Treasuries, will underperform in an inflationary environment, one that he predicts will worsen if Trump's tariff and immigration plans come to fruition."In a world in which gradually inflation goes higher, you lose on the equity part of your portfolio and you lose also on the bond portion of your portfolio," he said.Roubini's newly minted Atlas America Fund (ticker USAF) counts shorter-term Treasury ETFs as its biggest constituents. Other holdings include exchange-traded funds tracking gold trusts, climate-change resilient real estate investment trusts, municipal securities and corporate bonds.USAF is Roubini's first ETF launched through Atlas Capital Team, a fintech company that he co-founded to help develop investing strategies that protect against high-risk scenarios including out-of-control inflation, climate change and civil unrest."In a world in which average inflation might be 5% rather than 2%, bond yields may be closer to 7% to 8% rather than the current 4%-plus," Roubini said. That subjects Treasuries, traditionally safe assets, "to massive price risks."Roubini, who famously called Bitcoin "the mother of all bubbles," is still steering clear from the world's largest cryptocurrency, which advocates tout as an alternative store of value in a world of elevated inflation risk."Bitcoin is highly volatile," he said. "If you want wealth preservation rather than high volatility, you want to stay away from those types of assets."--With assistance from Scarlet Fu and Eric Balchunas.More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
Elon Musk wants to 'delete' the CFPB. Could he?
Elon Musk.Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg WASHINGTON — Elon Musk said the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau should be eliminated, calling the bureau an example of "too many duplicative regulatory agencies." The call comes after Marc Andreeson, the Silicon Valley venture capitalist, said on a Joe Rogan podcast that the bureau was "terrorizing financial institutions." Andreeson has a long history with the bureau. The CFPB said earlier this year that it had returned nearly $40 million to consumers from a fintech company called LendUp Loans, which was backed by Andreeson's firm Andreeson Horowitz. The CFPB in 2021 closed LendUp Loans, which billed itself as an alternative to traditional payday lenders, for "repeatedly lying and illegally cheating its customers." Musk might have the power to influence the Trump administration's views toward the bureau as co-head of a new entity called the "Department of Government Efficiency," which will operate outside of the government. The ability of Musk — and of the Trump administration writ large — to shutter the CFPB, however, is limited. It would likely take an act of Congress to unwind the bureau. "However fortunate or unfortunate, the CFPB was established by an act of Congress — requiring an act of Congress to 'delete,'" said Aaron J.B. Kofsky, Vice President-elect JD Vance's former financial policy advisor. "And I just don't think the votes are there. While I take issue with much of the CFPB's work, conservatives should instead focus on weaponizing the bureau to charter an America First course." Another layer of protection for the CFPB is the recent Supreme Court decision — decided by a bench that leans conservative — that finds the bureau's funding structure constitutional. "The logic of deleting the CFPB, like half of the accounts on X, is nothing more than an imaginative ruse designed to fan flames inside an echo chamber," said Adam Rust, director of financial services at the Consumer Federation of America. "The CFPB is an independent agency with independent funding." Central to Andreeson's claims, which Musk was responding to in his social media post, are complaints about "debanking," which for Musk and his counterparts are typically concerns about banks' kicking conservative voices and industries like the crypto industry and the firearms industry out of traditional banking services.Musk spent much of Wednesday posting about debanking and "Operation Chokepoint." "Did you know that 30 tech founders were secretly debanked?" Musk wrote, reposting a video of Andreeson's interview. It'll be a key point in banking policy to watch in the new Trump administration, experts said, regardless of whether it winds up affecting the CFPB or other banking agencies. "While debanking — primarily of conservative voices and industries disfavored by the Left — is a serious issue, the CFPB is not the culprit," Kofsky said. "Bank examiners at the FDIC, Fed and OCC utilize reputational risk to pressure banks to stop doing business with not only conservatives, but also the gun, traditional energy and crypto industries." The CFPB was created as part of the Dodd-Frank Act, and the bureau in particular comes from the work of now Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who will be the ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee when the new Congress begins in the new year. Conservatives and Republicans since have opposed the bureau, with Trump appointing Mick Mulvaney to lead it during his first term, with the purpose of dismantling its work and undercutting its powers. Project 2025 — the conservative blueprint from the Heritage Foundation that Trump has distanced himself from while embracing some of its ideas — calls for "returning the consumer protection function of the CFPB to banking regulators and the Federal Trade Commission." What the election means for the future of the CFPB It would be an onerous path to accomplish this, said Todd Phillips, assistant professor studying financial regulation law at Georgia State. "The CFPB is a creature of Congress, and Congress can pass legislation to abolish it if it wants to," he said. "That's not going to happen. As much as the industry dislikes how vigorous Director [Rohit] Chopra has been, they don't want to see the agency abolished." Congress would have to write legislation to move the CFPB's authorities back to the FTC and to the bank regulators, a complex process that would make for a more confusing landscape for bankers and tech firms alike. "I expect that as soon as Donald Trump gets into office he's going to appoint his person to run the agency and Congress isn't going to do a whole lot with it," Phillips said. "Even conservatives don't like getting ripped off."
Musk calls for abolishing consumer agency GOP has long targeted
Elon MuskNathan Laine/Bloomberg Billionaire Elon Musk called for eliminating the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, highlighting the renewed threat under President-elect Donald Trump to a regulatory agency that has long been a target of Republicans and business advocacy groups."Delete CFPB. There are too many duplicative regulatory agencies," Musk wrote in a post on his social-media platform X early Wednesday. Musk's criticism is notable because he, alongside technology entrepreneur and fellow businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, has been tapped by Trump to run a new effort, dubbed the Department of Government Efficiency, which aims to slash the federal bureaucracy and reduce government spending.And Musk's move signals a new stage in a long-running Washington fight over the agency's powers and very existence.The CFPB — the brainchild of Democratic Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren — was created as part of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act in the wake of the financial crisis and given the job of overseeing parts of the financial industry that interact with consumers. The agency, though, has endured a rocky political tenure, facing multiple legal challenges since its onset.During his first term, Trump took steps to largely neutralize the agency, easing the CFPB's enforcement of banks. But under President Joe Biden and Director Rohit Chopra, the agency has taken an aggressive regulatory approach to consumer finance, cracking down on home foreclosures and bank overdraft fees. Earlier this year, the agency also scored a win in the courts when the Supreme Court upheld its funding system.Project 2025, a controversial blueprint for a second Trump term crafted by the conservative Heritage Foundation, calls for abolishing the agency, calling it "highly politicized, damaging, and utterly unaccountable," and "returning the consumer protection function of the CFPB to banking regulators and the Federal Trade Commission."Chopra's own future as head of the CFPB is in jeopardy. Since a 2020 Supreme Court ruling making the role at-will, the incoming president will have the power to fire Chopra if he doesn't resign first. Removing him would be a victory for businesses that have sought to weaken independent federal regulators.Musk has already demonstrated his influence over the incoming administration, including sitting in on transition meetings and calls with foreign leaders. But it is unclear how much power his Department of Government Efficiency will wield in its efforts to scale back the federal government. Trump has said it will "provide advice and guidance from outside of Government, and will partner with the White House and Office of Management & Budget to drive large scale structural reform."'Midnight-hour' regsRamaswamy is warning the Biden administration over last-minute efforts to finalize regulations or dole out funding before Trump returns to power, saying those actions will be scrutinized by incoming officials and potentially reversed."We are acutely aware of the reality that the outgoing Biden administration is pushing out $$ and proposing new regulations at a fast pace to get ahead of Jan 20," Ramaswamy said in a post on X Wednesday. "All midnight-hour expenditures & new regulations will get special scrutiny and should be rescinded where appropriate."Administrations, including Trump's first, routinely seek to cement their imprint on policies in the final days of a term. One high-profile example in recent days is a proposed Biden administration rule that would require the US government to cover obesity drugs for millions of Americans. Biden is also seeking to strengthen Ukraine in its fight to repel Russia's invasion during his final days in office. He's allowing Kyiv to hit military targets deeper inside Russia, approved sending anti-personnel land mines and forgave nearly $5 billion in debt.On Capitol Hill, Senate Democrats are also sprinting to confirm the president's judicial nominees before the chamber flips to Republican control in January.
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